Trade War with China

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Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
So much for tariff will remedy trade imbalance
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China's record trade surplus with U.S. adds fuel to trade war fire
If the first dose of medicine doesn't help then the doctor won't simply accept the patient as dead, but continue with the treatment.

The tariff is not the political target, shaping of the USA economy is the target for Turmp.

The tariff is a tool for it, and it can be used again, and again with other tools.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
ROFL, you said the state doesn't need taxation and can just print money, and now you're saying it needs taxation to fix problems caused by printing money?? LMAO!!!
It depending on the situation.

If there is deflation then the country just needs to print money.
For 2000 years the success of all government on the earth depended on they ability to inflate and print more money.

With modern technology ( printing and accounting) there is no more upper limit about the inflation generating capability, so now it is about the taxation ( sterilisation) ability of governments.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
OK I see you've moved to a different topic completely like you always do when you lose but I will just recap the previous conversation:
If you agree then why I would beat the same topics again?


There is and always will be a long way to go regardless of how far it has come because the mentality of China now is to always improve because there are rival nations in the world waiting to eat your lunch. But as for the comparison of corruption/organization in comparison to the West, that is once again, your speaking without understanding Chinese politics again. First of all, China's current government has gotten far more accomplished than any other government in the world in such a short span of time (far surpassing Europe's anemic "development"); those results are undeniable. And secondly, at least China doesn't have a president that colluded with a foreign hostile power to win over the election against the will of is own citizens and then bring his children and the rest of his family into politics. That's corruption king there; the Chinese stare in awe :eek:
It was simple copy/past of methods from west with the active cooperation of the USA/Europe.
It was used by the CCCP, with similar results like China now, or by Japan prior, same result like China.

It is not unprecedent, nd the future path is easy to project.
It works around the quarter/half of the per capita gdp level, but now there is nothing to copy any more. Everything has to came from the Chinese political/management/scientific skills.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
By any measure the US is more indebted than China furthermore, it also has a lower growth rate, runs a massive budget deficit and literally exports debt! It spends hundreds of billions on its military which has next to no ROI (the continental US would be just as safe with less than half the spend) but its so called Chinese debt fueled infrastructure spending and how its economy is going to implode we are talking about, using barbers and roads as examples, seriously!

No one talk about the "implode" of the Chinese economy.

That is one of the possible scenarios, but everyone think it has low probability.

Of course the USA purposefully working on the implode scenario , the trade war is increasing the chance of it .


And the Chinese grow :
As an aside, if a nonproductive investment is not written down, it also results in what is effectively a capitalization of what should be an expense. In other words, an illusory increase in wealth is recorded. This is the main difference between money borrowed to fund consumption and money borrowed to fund nonproductive investment (aside from the fact that the former at least gives you temporary pleasure): neither increases wealth (that is, productive capacity) or income, but until it is correctly written down the latter allows you to report higher wealth and income that is wholly illusory. It would be as if you spent $100 on dinner and then rather than record an expense that is deducted from your total income, which would leave you $100 poorer after dinner, you instead record an asset, leaving your total wealth unaffected.
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Say if big part of the Chinese economy is an illusion ( consumption recorded as investment) then the write off would not make China as a whole poorer ,but it will make the real economy visible.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Since 2008, when massive spending propped up the Chinese economy, the debt incurred as a percentage of GDP is going steadily up while the growth of GDP is slowing down. This means the debt fueled spending have less and less impact on GDP growth.

In the U.S, infrastructure is better in both coasts where people actually live, because that is where a return on investment (in the form of productivity gain of the region) is possible. The same logic applies to China. Western China is significantly less densely populated and so the return on investment is lower. The fact that the Rockies has fewer roads per square mile compared to Los Angeles is not a reason to add more roads to the Rockies.

Building a road or railway is more than just economic goal . It also has security and economic rebalancing implication to it . Xinjiang and Tiber comprises about half of Chinese territory. very sparsely populated but rich with mineral resource it will be the future of China, The majority China's oil and gas reserve are located in xinjiang. The eastern seaboard is densely populated someday they will have to move more people to the west. Or troop and armament in time of war

So it make sense to start to built the infrastructure that will provide connectivity, binding to those region closer to the China heartland . It is no different then when America building the intestate highway 80 in the 50's because they found out that it take more than a month to move troop from east to west during the WWII

China west is underdevelop compare to the eastern seaboard great effort is now underway to bring the same level of prosperity to the west to reduce economic imbalance
I rather spend my money building infrastructure rather than buying US treasury bill. It is investment for the future in China !
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
If the first dose of medicine doesn't help then the doctor won't simply accept the patient as dead, but continue with the treatment.

The tariff is not the political target, shaping of the USA economy is the target for Turmp.

The tariff is a tool for it, and it can be used again, and again with other tools.

Yes you can keep increasing the dose. But then you probably killed the patient instead of the disease!
How are you shaping the US economy with biggest tax give a way to the rich, reducing funding for science, restricting immigration and make it difficult for talented foreigner to work in US. launching trade war with everybody?
You tell me
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
If you agree then why I would beat the same topics again?
I wrote that to clarify that YOU first said that Chinese people shouldn't care about other Chinese people being richer over foreigners and that YOU now understand that it was wrong. Even if you make your writing style sound like you are convincing other people and thus there is agreement, it is still you who lost that stupid argument you made.

It was simple copy/past of methods from west with the active cooperation of the USA/Europe.
It was used by the CCCP, with similar results like China now, or by Japan prior, same result like China.
We've done this before. If you look at Japan's economic growth, it was always erratic, sometimes 9%, sometimes 0%, than 4% the next year, and this was during its boom period. It has no similarity to China's maintained and steady strong growth. To say that China will be like Japan because they are similar is the Western economist's version of whistling past the graveyard to calm their fears and fool themselves that they cannot be surpassed. But in reality, even they do not believe it. Only people who don't understand economics may have their fears allayed by this clear comparison fallacy. And only people who truly do not understand economic models think that China's can be copied from the West; they are as different as can be, and fear that the Chinese model is eating the Western model's lunch is a driving force in this trade war.

It is not unprecedent, nd the future path is easy to project. It works around the quarter/half of the per capita gdp level, but now there is nothing to copy any more. Everything has to came from the Chinese political/management/scientific skills.
China's growth is unprecedented in the world and one cannot predict the future because of this; this is what you you said in a previous post. LOL But when pressed, you simply said that your prediction is that China will continue to meet its GDP targets. So... if that is your prediction, then I guess, short term, it's easy. But long term, it is not possible, especially not by comparing to other economies, all of which are very different from China's. To draw any conclusion about China's economic future by comparing to another economy is to say that 2 boxers both like to punch and boxer 1 lost the fight to Tyson, so boxer 2 will as well. It is funny.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
A barber in NYC 1700 may charge only a nickle or less for a haircut. His counterpart today will charge $20 to $30, so you would chalk all of this up to inflation, since they do the same work.

You seem to think you picked a pretty extreme example to illustrate your point, when in fact you have done the exact opposite. This pretty much tells me that you have very little actual experience or schooling in economics or finance, since anyone used to dealing with numbers would see how self defeating your extreme example would be at a glance, without even needing to take the 30 seconds to do the math.

Starting at $0.25 and with a modest 2% constant annual inflation to make the maths easier, you get to $91.37 after 300 years with just inflastion. The fact that a haircut is only $20-30 is in fact the productively gain you keep talking about, but which seems to have zero understanding of.

Except for the fact that the Barber in 1700 lived in a tiny flat that is crowed and dirty. No electricity, no gas heating, He has barely enough calories. A McDonald with milkshake would be a sumptuous meal back in the day. Let alone a washing machine, iphone, cars, flying on an airplane. So these two people produce identical goods, but by all objective measure, the NYC barber in 2018 lives in hog heaven compared to his 1700 counterpart. The one in Sichuan lives somewhere in between. There is real productivity growth for doing exactly the same thing in different environments.

Could you please just do yourself a favour and do the least research to learn what it is you are talking about before saying it?

Every example above is where things have gotten less, not more expensive over time, yes, as a result of real productivity gains (which, since you seem completely oblivious, means getting the same or more output with less inputs. Getting the same output for more cost is the very definition of inflation).

People’s live styles have massively improved over the years because technology has allowed us to make more things with less time and resources used. That’s productivity gains.

Even your much overused barber example fits this trend, since I used current historically low inflation as a baseline, whereas in reality inflation was way more than 2% on average.

The fact that the barber has been able to keep his prices way below inflation is an example of productivity gains being passed on to the consumer, allowing them to get more for their money.

Of course investing in infrastructure is about the impact it has on the productivity it creates and not about the toll it generates. Normally, a country start off poor, devote large share of GDP to infrastructure, then as GDP grows and infrastructure is built out, the share devoted to this goes down. There is something wrong with the picture if, after you built out most of the infrastructure in an area where 70% of your population live, you are borrowing an ever larger share of a now very large and growing economy to do more infrastructure. If anything, there is more reason to go to debt in the beginning of this process, not towards the end. Even if you account for long term future impacts, it is possible to have wasteful spending on infrastructure.

This smacks of typical western arrogance in thinking their own past experience is the only correct way to do things.

First of all, you do realise that not all infrastructure is equal right? Building a rudimentary railway line able to take ancient slow trains does not yield anything like the same economic benefit as a modern, state of the art high speed rail line.

Same with roads, airports, ports and even buildings.

Secondly, infrastructure is not something you only need to build once. It decays and degrades, and eventually needs replacing from just normal wear and tear.

Cutting infrastructure spending is penny pinching and kicking the can down the road. Just look at the tragedy of the recent Italian bridge collapse, and the mammoth scale of infrastructure in dire need of repair and replacement the ensuring investigation is revealing.

It’s a similar picture in the US and other countries who think infrastructure building is only supposed to be for developing economies.

Lastly, much of the debt China took on in the aftermath of the western financial crisis was to stabilise the world economy. Not just China’s.

China’s current national debt is massively inflated because of that need to clean up the west’s mess.

But even with that massive debt pile inflating the figures, China’s position is positively enviable compared to the west. Especially since pretty much all of that debt is as a result of investment, which will yield a return, as opposed to consumption in the west’s case.

The BRI, until it connects to Western Europe, is about strategic positioning. The countries along the way simply do not have the ingredients like rule of law, entrepreneurship etc. to make good use of the infrastructures created, so this is a form of expenditure, not investment.

Yet more egotistical western exceptionalism, it was not that long ago that prominent western leaders and academics were predicting how China would not amount to much for much the same made up excuses.

Go do some basic research and you will see that the BRI is already yielding significant economic gains, especially where it is directly connected to China already.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
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US businesses say China makes things great, again and again
By
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September 7, 2018


The trade war between the US and China currently stands at tariffs on $50 billion in goods imposed by both sides, and could soon see billions more in goods drawn into the fray. The comment period on the proposed list for
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ended Thursday (Sept. 6) night, and the US must now decide what it will do next.

Nearly 4,000 comments have been sent to the office of US trade representative Robert Lighthizer, most of them seeking to get categories of products off the list, arguing that many of the proposed tariffs will lead to higher prices for consumers—or worse, to their businesses failing—because of their inability to source good alternatives in a timely fashion. Selected businesses and trade groups spoke before Lighthizer in over a week of hearings that started Aug. 20 and have produced some 500 pages of transcripts per day.

The
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and
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offer a glimpse into multiple corners of the US economy that stand to be affected if the trade war deepens drastically. Over and over again, many US businesses echoed a common refrain: Nobody does what we need better than China.

Here’s a sample of their remarks.

Internet of Things devices
Aaron Emigh, the CEO of
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, which recently started selling
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that’s designed in the US and manufactured in China, explained that the quality and finish of products made in China is higher than other countries his company evaluated:

We did an evaluation of where we would build the device, before we knew about the tariffs, and looked at a lot of different countries as possibilities. China is unique for several reasons. First, the quality of construction that’s available in China is extremely high. This is very important for consumer products, where fit and finish is very important. And many of the low-cost countries, like Vietnam or Indonesia or places like that, we felt didn’t have the capability of building products to that level of fit and finish.
Leather furniture
David Mathison is the cofounder of
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, a firm based in the furniture hub of Hickory, North Carolina, that exports American hides to China to be turned into upholstery and finished furniture:

[T]he quality of the workmanship, the labor, in China is better than anyplace else in the world. We do business in other countries beyond China. We buy a lot of and bring a lot of leather from Italy. We bring a lot of leather from Brazil. We bring a lot of leather from places like India. But we have looked in many different places to make the handcrafted leathers that I mentioned earlier. But Chinese labor is way better and there is no comparison, and I would say if I was going to put together a team of labor it would – first, second, third, fourth and fifth choice would be China and nowhere else.
Luggage, handbags, wallets
Ross Bishop, president of San Rafael, California-based
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, a 10-year-old company that designs modular bags for pilots, asked the trade representative not to impose tariffs on trade category 4202, which covers a variety of suitcases, luggage, and handbags:

No other company is doing what we do. As with most companies in our HTS [Harmonized Tariff Schedule] category of 4202, our products are manufactured in China. The point of note here is not only have the Chinese been making most of the world’s nylon bags for a long time, but I can tell you firsthand from working with five different Chinese factories and from my many personal visits to them in China that they are really good. In fact, if you pick the right factory, as I’ve done, they are actually artists.

Speaking on the same product code on Aug. 20, Karen Giberson of the Accessories Council said:

We anticipate that certain other countries as India will be eventually an alternative to China for leather. However, they do not yet possess the resources, trained workforce, infrastructure, or capability to absorb the volume of product currently produced in China at the same quality and competitive prices.

Prom and wedding dresses
Stephen Lang, of the American Bridal and Prom Industry Association, said the demand for ever-more embellished dresses requires a labor pool and skills that only China—he called their workers the “oil” of the global economy—can provide:

Nobody wants to do this work, and the reason it went offshore 30 years ago is the increasingly difficult issue of trying to make dresses for people with all the thousands of hand-sewn beads they want and not have to pay $10,000… I can’t find people that will do hand beading. I can’t make goods in Mexico. In our industry, $50 billion worth of volume comes out of China in terms of clothing – in Vietnam, $8 billion; Indonesia, less than $4 billion; India, less than $4 billion; Italy, $1.8 billion. If there were options to go outside of China, the entire world would. What we need to have done here you cannot—China’s the only place in town.

Wood flooring
Sam Cobb, CEO of Real Wood Floors:

There are certain products that are produced in China that simply can’t be produced elsewhere… There is large-scale production of engineered flooring in America, but it is almost entirely low-end commodity production. Further, a substantial volume of what is identified as American-made engineered flooring is produced using prison labor. And while I appreciate what good prison industry programs accomplish, the fact that subsidized labor is a necessary component of U.S. flooring manufacturing gives a clue as to why products continue to be made elsewhere.
That said, several businesses also testified in favor of keeping certain products—and in some cases suggesting adding more, such as food packaging and outdoor gas grills—on the list.

This is an excellent article, and a very good illustration of the power of western propaganda.

When you speak to your average westerner, their opinion of Made in China is of cheap and low quality, with the emphasis on poor quality. However, the reality is that it is the quality of Chinese made products that makes China so phenomenally successful, since there are already plenty of places were labour is increasingly cheaper.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
This is an excellent article, and a very good illustration of the power of western propaganda.

When you speak to your average westerner, their opinion of Made in China is of cheap and low quality, with the emphasis on poor quality. However, the reality is that it is the quality of Chinese made products that makes China so phenomenally successful, since there are already plenty of places were labour is increasingly cheaper.
I m sorry , mate, but what is the propaganda?
The article about the importance of quality goods from China from a major newspaper, supporting the elitist view of westerners about the bad and counterproductive trade war with China, or ?

This is a nice piece of propaganda , try to convince the average USA citizen about how bad is the trade war with chin for him. : D
 
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