Both of you seem to be arguing about PPP or Purchasing Power Parity. Or in this case, another way of measuring GDP, which is GDP by PPP. This means productivity is taken into account by relative purchasing power. If you take this into account, China is the largest economy in the world, and that has happened for some years now. The World Bank, the IMF and the CIA all use PPP, and despite being different organizations and that PPP feels a bit more of an estimate, the three of them have a common estimate for China at around over $23 trillion in GDP/PPP. China's nominal GPP is about $12 trillion.
Trade War with China
- Thread starter Ultra
- Start date
- Status
Both of you seem to be arguing about PPP or Purchasing Power Parity. Or in this case, another way of measuring GDP, which is GDP by PPP. This means productivity is taken into account by relative purchasing power. If you take this into account, China is the largest economy in the world, and that has happened for some years now. The World Bank, the IMF and the CIA all use PPP, and despite being different organizations and that PPP feels a bit more of an estimate, the three of them have a common estimate for China at around over $23 trillion in GDP/PPP. China's nominal GPP is about $12 trillion.
solarz
Brigadier
So you acknowledge that your story is just a fairy tale. I think we can all agree with that.
Except you were talking about China's infrastructure spending, and we have explained to you why those spendings are relevant and productive. You just keep insisting that they are not.
Jura The idiot
General
The obvious Trump counter is the US leaving WTO.
Infrastructures are always useful. They are always needed by somebody. The question is, do you get a positive return on your investment. And if some of the investments have low or negative returns over their life time, do you want to take your country ever deeper into debt to invest in such things. Investments are suppose to create higher growth in the future. What Michael Pettis and I are arguing is that these investments are doing the opposite. We are not going to convince each other on this forum, but time will tell who is right.With the benefit of hindsight, some are now calling the Japanese investments bridges to nowhere, but if you were here in the early eighties, the overwhelming consensus was that they were invincible and will take over the world. Some at the time even praised their "super long term planning" and infrastructure investment as a virtue.
antiterror13
Brigadier
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
It is going to happened sooner or latter
China puts off licenses for US companies amid tariff battle
BEIJING (AP) — Amid a worsening tariff battle, China is putting off accepting license applications from American companies in financial services and other industries until Washington makes progress toward a settlement, a business group says.
The disclosure Tuesday is the first public confirmation of U.S. companies' fears that their operations in China or access to its markets might be disrupted by the battle over Beijing's technology policy. China is running out of American imports for penalties in response to President Donald Trump's tariff hikes, which has prompted worries regulators might target operations of U.S. companies.
The license delay applies to industries Beijing has promised to open to foreign competitors, according to Jacob Parker, vice president for China operations of the U.S.-China Business Council. The group represents some 200 American companies that do business with China.
In meetings over the past three weeks, Cabinet-level officials told USCBC representatives they are putting off accepting applications "until the trajectory of the U.S.-China relationship improves and stabilizes," Parker said.
Chinese authorities have promised to increase foreign access to areas including banking, securities, insurance and asset management.
"There seem to be domestic political pressures that are working against the perception of U.S. companies receiving benefits" during the dispute, Parker said.
As for what improvement might entail, Parker said Chinese officials want an end to Trump's tariff hikes and a negotiated settlement. He declined to identify the officials but, in a sign Beijing wants foreign companies to help lobby Washington, said the meetings represented "unprecedented access" for his group.
Beijing matched Trump's earlier tariff increase on $50 billion of imports but is running out of American goods for retaliation due to their lopsided trade balance. China bought American goods worth about $1 for every $3 of goods it exported to the United States.
Trump is poised to decide whether to raise duties on $200 billion of Chinese goods. Beijing has issued a $60 billion list of goods for retaliation.
A foreign ministry spokesman, Geng Shuang, said Monday that China will "definitely take countermeasures" if the tariff hike goes ahead.
Economists have warned Beijing might target service industries such as engineering or logistics, in which the United States runs a trade surplus with China.
Chinese commentators have suggested Beijing might use its multitrillion-dollar holdings of U.S. government debt as a weapon, though that would impose costs on China. State-controlled media have encouraged boycotts of Japanese and South Korean products in past disputes with those governments.
The government said in June it would impose unspecified "comprehensive measures" if necessary. That left U.S. companies on edge about whether Beijing will use its heavily regulated economy to disrupt their operations by withholding licenses or launching tax, anti-monopoly or other investigations.
Chinese leaders reject Trump's demand to roll back official industry plans such as "Made in China 2025," which calls for state-led creation of global champions in robotics, artificial intelligence and other technologies.
Washington, Europe and other trading partners say those plans violate Beijing's market-opening commitments. But Communist leaders see them as a path to prosperity and global influence.
Chinese negotiators agreed in May to narrow their multibillion-dollar trade surplus with the United States by purchasing more American soybeans and other products. Beijing scrapped that deal after Trump's first tariff increase went ahead July 6.
In addition to rolling back industry plans, the Trump administration wants Beijing to reduce the privileges of state-owned companies and eliminate requirements for foreign companies to hand over technology to Chinese partners.
In their meetings with the USCBC, Chinese officials expressed willingness to buy more American exports but "showed no appetite at all" to talk about industry reform, technology policy or other U.S. priorities, Parker said.
"I don't consider that to be very positive for any kind of negotiated outcome in the short term or medium term," he said.
Chinese regulators have shown their willingness to attack foreign companies in disputes with other governments.
China puts off licenses for US companies amid tariff battle
BEIJING (AP) — Amid a worsening tariff battle, China is putting off accepting license applications from American companies in financial services and other industries until Washington makes progress toward a settlement, a business group says.
The disclosure Tuesday is the first public confirmation of U.S. companies' fears that their operations in China or access to its markets might be disrupted by the battle over Beijing's technology policy. China is running out of American imports for penalties in response to President Donald Trump's tariff hikes, which has prompted worries regulators might target operations of U.S. companies.
The license delay applies to industries Beijing has promised to open to foreign competitors, according to Jacob Parker, vice president for China operations of the U.S.-China Business Council. The group represents some 200 American companies that do business with China.
In meetings over the past three weeks, Cabinet-level officials told USCBC representatives they are putting off accepting applications "until the trajectory of the U.S.-China relationship improves and stabilizes," Parker said.
Chinese authorities have promised to increase foreign access to areas including banking, securities, insurance and asset management.
"There seem to be domestic political pressures that are working against the perception of U.S. companies receiving benefits" during the dispute, Parker said.
As for what improvement might entail, Parker said Chinese officials want an end to Trump's tariff hikes and a negotiated settlement. He declined to identify the officials but, in a sign Beijing wants foreign companies to help lobby Washington, said the meetings represented "unprecedented access" for his group.
Beijing matched Trump's earlier tariff increase on $50 billion of imports but is running out of American goods for retaliation due to their lopsided trade balance. China bought American goods worth about $1 for every $3 of goods it exported to the United States.
Trump is poised to decide whether to raise duties on $200 billion of Chinese goods. Beijing has issued a $60 billion list of goods for retaliation.
A foreign ministry spokesman, Geng Shuang, said Monday that China will "definitely take countermeasures" if the tariff hike goes ahead.
Economists have warned Beijing might target service industries such as engineering or logistics, in which the United States runs a trade surplus with China.
Chinese commentators have suggested Beijing might use its multitrillion-dollar holdings of U.S. government debt as a weapon, though that would impose costs on China. State-controlled media have encouraged boycotts of Japanese and South Korean products in past disputes with those governments.
The government said in June it would impose unspecified "comprehensive measures" if necessary. That left U.S. companies on edge about whether Beijing will use its heavily regulated economy to disrupt their operations by withholding licenses or launching tax, anti-monopoly or other investigations.
Chinese leaders reject Trump's demand to roll back official industry plans such as "Made in China 2025," which calls for state-led creation of global champions in robotics, artificial intelligence and other technologies.
Washington, Europe and other trading partners say those plans violate Beijing's market-opening commitments. But Communist leaders see them as a path to prosperity and global influence.
Chinese negotiators agreed in May to narrow their multibillion-dollar trade surplus with the United States by purchasing more American soybeans and other products. Beijing scrapped that deal after Trump's first tariff increase went ahead July 6.
In addition to rolling back industry plans, the Trump administration wants Beijing to reduce the privileges of state-owned companies and eliminate requirements for foreign companies to hand over technology to Chinese partners.
In their meetings with the USCBC, Chinese officials expressed willingness to buy more American exports but "showed no appetite at all" to talk about industry reform, technology policy or other U.S. priorities, Parker said.
"I don't consider that to be very positive for any kind of negotiated outcome in the short term or medium term," he said.
Chinese regulators have shown their willingness to attack foreign companies in disputes with other governments.
FriedRiceNSpice
Captain
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
With major difference China urbanization rate is only 60% vs Japan of 80% then now is 94%. And China GDP percapita is only quarter of Japanese GDP percapita . China is continental size country Japan is small and narrow island
Japan development is very balance then most of major cities and villages are already connected by road and railway
China development is very unbalance with developed eastern seaboard and backward and underdeveloped inland and western provinces
Even now Chinese railway length is only 120,000 km vs 250,000 km in US. Even India railway length is 120,000 for smaller country compare to China
So you are comparing apple and orange here. Japan infrastructure is already well developed so adding more infrastructure does not make sense. But China is far from saturated
Japan already has 2 super cluster of cities the Tokyo bay area and Kansai region. China is now developing 3 cluster super cities . Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei cluster, Shanghai, Hangzhou cluster and River delta area of Quangzhou, Shenzhen, Hongkong cluster
In the next decades or two 250 million people will be moved from the country side into urban area 2nd or 3rd tier cities All of them need housing, transport, hospitals, school, shopping center etc. The population size of USA
Last edited:
solarz
Brigadier
Instead of keep bringing up Japan, maybe you could actually provide some evidence in support of your argument?
I know what China is like. Every year, the Spring Festival brings the largest human mass migration in the world. Train tickets are sold out months in advance. Migrant workers spend 11 months a year away from their home, and the Spring Festival is their only chance to see their families. Every October, there is one week of mass tourism. People pack themselves onto trains to visit China's famous landmarks.
There is a huge demand for transportation in China that neither you nor Michael Pettis seem to be aware of, or you would not be making those kinds of arguments.
- Status