Trade War with China

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nugroho

Junior Member
Is the US shooting itself in the foot with tariffs on Chinese rare earth elements?

Among the thousands of Chinese products targeted by the US administration in its latest salvo of tariffs are some rare earth metals, little known chemical elements that are vital to products ranging from hi-tech lasers to wind turbines to lightweight frames for mountain bikes.

SCMP TODAY: INTL EDITION

Not exactly household names, yttrium and scandium will be subject to 10 per cent levies as part of the US$200 billion worth of Chinese products facing tariffs under US President Donald Trump’s latest shot in the trade war between the two nations.

The US was the world’s leader in production of rare earth metals until the 1980s, but production – from mining to refining the ore into usable materials for hi-tech products – is now dominated by China, which has accounted for more than 90 per cent of global production and supply on average in the past decade, according to a report prepared by the US Geological Survey last year.


But analysts said it could be US companies that suffer from tariffs on the rare earth materials, as there simply are little alternative sources of supply.

“It’s kind of nonsense to place import tariffs on Chinese rare earth producers. It is unclear how it offers the US any upside and is unclear how it inflicts any pain on China,” said Ryan Castilloux, founder of Adamas Intelligence, a research firm in Amsterdam. “There really is no ‘buy American’ alternative.”

The focus in the US has been primarily on “more holes in the ground,” or making it easier to mine rare elements, rather than creating an infrastructure that spans from raw materials to refining to creating end-use products, such as magnets, he added.

Until that happens, the creation of new mines will only account for “a small portion of US needs,” he said.


Rare earth metals are a group of 17 elements that share similar chemical and physical properties and are used in a variety of sectors, including by military contractors and technology firms.

As well as the 10 per cent levy on scandium and yttrium, the newest tariffs include a levy on compounds made with cerium as well as levies on oxides and chlorides made with other rare earth elements.

“There really is no ‘buy American’ alternative.”RYAN CASTILLOUX, FOUNDER OF ADAMAS INTELLIGENCE
Alloys created with scandium and aluminium have been used for fighter jets and lightweight bicycle frames, while yttrium is used in the manufacture of lasers and LED lights, according to the Royal Society of Chemistry. Cerium is often found in cigarette lighters, flat-screen televisions and energy-saving light bulbs, according to the British professional body.

Other rare earth metals, such as neodymium, are used in magnets that are critical to the guidance systems of smart bombs used by the US military and are among the audio components of Apple Inc.’s iPhones.

Apple said in its latest environmental sustainability report that it is recycling rare earth materials from its old iPhones to reduce the impact of mining for new sources of the metals. The company said it can recover 11 kilograms of rare earth elements from every 100,000 iPhones it recycles.

China is the largest exporter by far to the United States of the rare earth elements targeted by the tariffs, accounting for nearly 60 per cent of the US$234.4 million imported to America last year, according to data from the US International Trade Commission. That is more than five times as much as the next largest exporters in those categories in 2017: France and Japan.

Smelting of the rare earth metal lanthanum at a small workshop in China. The country is the world’s largest supplier of rare earths. Photo: Reuters
However, China’s influence extends well beyond raw materials.

The country now plays a dominant role in everything from refining to making components that use rare earth materials. That is thanks in part to a group of six large state-owned companies that make it difficult for other countries to profitably match the production level or integration of China’s rare earth operations, according to analysts.

Dudley Kingsnorth, executive director of the Industrial Minerals Company of Australia, a consultant to the mining industry, said that China, unlike many Western countries, has a “very clear road ahead” with its “Made in China 2025” strategy to modernise the country and encourage development of technology domestically, instead of relying on foreign companies.

“The US imposing a 10 per cent tariff on rare earths will just assist China to become dominant,” Kingsnorth said. “It will make it more difficult for manufacturers in the US to purchase rare earths and incorporate them in equipment and be competitive with China.”


The Trump administration has cited the “Made in China 2025” programme as a reason to impose tariffs on some products.

The dominance of China in production of the rare earths has raised alarm among some American lawmakers and government agencies in recent years.


The Government Accountability Office, a non-partisan, independent agency that reports to the US Congress, said in a 2016 report that the mining and refining of these ores by companies primarily outside the US “may pose risks to continued availability” to the American military.

China has reportedly used its dominance of rare earth metals as a political lever before.

In 2010, Western media reported that China limited exports of rare earth materials to Japan as part of a diplomatic row following the detention of a Chinese trawler captain after a collision with two Japanese patrol boats around islands claimed by both countries.

Kingsnorth said he is not convinced that China would take a similar course as a reaction to the US tariffs.

“China won’t do anything,” he said. “It won’t need to.”


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I think China should add the tariff to 100% .
No need to sell rare earth to US
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
Very high chance that if US cannot get what they want and prevail in a trade war which is asking China for IP protection and no state sponsorship for tech development and China will not agree. Then after two yrs of futile trade war and suffered economically as a result, US would launch military assault on China man made islands in SCS.
Better be prepared ! China better have stealth fighters in large number ready at SCS! Trade war can't be win will translated into military assault.
 
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tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
My predictions are Money. back in 2011 when j20 first test flighted, I have serious doubt about CAC production level and indeed in 2018, this very much holds true.

I predicted long time ago China would buy SU35 despite objections and denials of many here.

So going forward , I predict, in 2 yrs, after futile trade war, US will launch 3 carriers groups and 6 Virginia subs, and B1 to attack China man made islands.
They want recoup or even the losses from futile trade war
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
Very high chance that if US cannot get what they want and prevail in a trade war which is asking China for IP protection and no state sponsorship for tech development and China will not agree. Then after two yrs of futile trade war and suffered economically as a result, US would launch military assault on China man made islands in SCS.
Better be prepared ! China better have stealth fighters in large number ready at SCS! Trade war can't be win will translated into military assault.

My predictions are Money. back in 2011 when j20 first test flighted, I have serious doubt about CAC production level and indeed in 2018, this very much holds true.

I predicted long time ago China would buy SU35 despite objections and denials of many here.

So going forward , I predict, in 2 yrs, after futile trade war, US will launch 3 carriers groups and 6 Virginia subs, and B1 to attack China man made islands.
They want recoup or even the losses from futile trade war

How does attacking China in the SCS help resolve the US problems with China in a trade war?o_O China is NO Iraq, Afghanistan or Libya to trying to regime changing through force? The US will be suffering high casualties for a bunch of islands thousand of mile away from the homeland and you think the American people will be supporting that? You obviously haven't noticed the many sufferings of PTSD, cost and social problems that ten of thousands of service members are going through JUST by going through the Middle East conflicts with a 3rd world countries after over a decade there.
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
How does attacking China in the SCS help resolve the US problems with China in a trade war?o_O China is NO Iraq, Afghanistan or Libya to trying to regime changing through force? The US will be suffering high casualties for a bunch of islands thousand of mile away from the homeland and you think the American people will be supporting that? You obviously haven't noticed the many sufferings of PTSD, cost and social problems that ten of thousands of service members are going through JUST by going through the Middle East conflicts with a 3rd world countries after over a decade there.

Current thinking is see if trade war can take down CHina which deems as less risky. If not, then the more risky military mean.
trade war is not the end result but a mean. Take down China is the objective.

The objective is to make those island useless and back to square one,
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
Current thinking is see if trade war can take down CHina which deems as less risky. If not, then the more risky military mean.
trade war is not the end result but a mean. Take down China is the objective.

The objective is to make those island useless and back to square one,

But you lose military assets and lives that you can NOT replace. Oh by the way this conflict would have a major Stock Market down fall in Wall Street. The US is already at a $20 Trillion plus deficit and a slow economy, much less does the average are ready for another war or conflict. Taking down China is a now pipe dream and even the most hawkish of those in Washington knows it. They and the rest of the world just have to adapt to a rising China as a new world power that plays by a different set of rules.
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
But you lose military assets and lives that you can NOT replace. Oh by the way this conflict would have a major Stock Market down fall in Wall Street. The US is already at a $20 Trillion plus deficit and a slow economy, much less does the average are ready for another war or conflict. Taking down China is a now pipe dream and even the most hawkish of those in Washington knows it. They and the rest of the world just have to adapt to a rising China as a new world power that plays by a different set of rules.

I like your optimism, hope you are right.
But if China not prepared for further escalation after trade war it would be fatal.
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
Oh yeah, Trump thinking about of sanctioning China major banks in the name NK violations. Part of trade war actually. To cut off China banks from dollar account
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Oh yeah, Trump thinking about of sanctioning China major banks in the name NK violations. Part of trade war actually. To cut off China banks from dollar account

When he does that it will accelerate the downfall of dollar as reserve currency And the rise of Yuan China now has their own Bank clearing system and Petro yuan. China is the largest buyer of Saudi Arabia when push come to shove Saudi will trade in Yuan China has many alternative in oil Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan The only limiting factor is infrastructure Here is the primer on Dollar it is fiat money based on trust basically
Petro Yuan is backup by real gold

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Birth of the Petrodollar

With convertibility of the dollar into gold no longer an option, demand for dollars by foreign nations was in dire straits—as was the dollar’s purchasing power. The US needed to come up with a new arrangement that gave foreign countries a valid reason to hold and use dollars.

Between 1972 and 1974 the US government made a series of agreements with Saudi Arabia that became the Petrodollar System. The Saudi royal family’s survival would be guaranteed by this agreement and in exchange, Saudi Arabia agreed to:
  1. Guarantee oil prices within acceptable limits to the US and prevent another oil embargo by OPEC members.
  2. Invest substantial amounts of oil revenue in US Treasury securities and to modernize the infrastructure of Saudi Arabia with the interest payments from the treasury securities going to US companies for the infrastructure modernization projects.
  3. Use their dominant position in OPEC to ensure that all oil transactions would happen in US dollars.
Oil being the most traded commodity and needing to use dollars for oil transactions became the reason why to this day foreign countries keep large US dollar reserves. On a free market level, this demand is artificial because the dollar is a middleman in a transaction that has nothing to do with US product or service. Overall, this has increased US dollar and US Treasury purchasing power and liquidity. The US also has the luxury of not having to use foreign currency to buy imports but instead gets to use its own currency, which it can print. The Petrodollar has greatly benefited the US government and American citizens to live beyond their means for decades.

The World De-Dollarizes

There is a major movement in foreign countries to de-dollarize. BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) countries are especially aggressive at de-dollarizing to escape the US military complex. Countries around the world have grown tired of funding US military adventurism by being part of the “
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”—$21 trillion and counting.

With China now trading Petroyuan Futures, these countries now have a way out. The Petroyuan has a major advantage over the Petrodollar in that it is convertible into gold at prevailing gold prices while the dollar is essentially an IOU backed by a country with $21 trillion of debt. When trading of the Petroyuan opened on March 26, they priced at a $4 premium to the Petrodollar with 40 central banks investing and several others preparing to do so.

As the Petroyuan plays out, an acceleration in the collapse of the dollar’s value is inevitable as more of the world de-dollarizes. As the dollars come back to the United States, an inflationary trend could very well spiral into hyperinflation.
 
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