Top threats to the PLA "in my opinion"

In view of possible cross-strait conflict, the largest threat to PLA is the determination of Taiwanese to fight. A war is fought by people not by guns. If they have a strong will to defend, that's more problematic than any weapon or third-party intervening. PLA should remember how it fought a war in Korea using crappy weapons with an enemy with total air and fire superiority, among other advantages. PLA was determined and prepared to pay the price needed to achieve the goal, and they did it. Thus PLA should make sure that Taiwan people don't want to accept the price of the war.

So what to do? Make the perceived price for Taiwan people of war extremely high, and the alternative extremely palatable.

amorphous said:

In view of possible cross-strait conflict, the largest threat to PLA is the determination of Taiwanese to fight. A war is fought by people not by guns. If they have a strong will to defend, that's more problematic than any weapon or third-party intervening. PLA should remember how it fought a war in Korea using crappy weapons with an enemy with total air and fire superiority, among other advantages. PLA was determined and prepared to pay the price needed to achieve the goal, and they did it. Thus PLA should make sure that Taiwan people don't want to accept the price of the war.

So what to do? Make the perceived price for Taiwan people of war extremely high, and the alternative extremely palatable.

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Great point, that's the biggest threat indeed, not any weapons.

But, Taiwan is a small island which can not provides enough fresh water. All their drinking water is from a few reservoirs that collect rain. So destroying the dams of them will basically make 20 million people without water to drink.

Do they have any will to fight under this scenario? Doubt it.

fishhead said:

So destroying the dams of them will basically make 20 million people without water to drink.

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Demonstrating convincingly the ability of such but not doing it is just good. Actually doing it will make them feel cornered. Remember the Chinese saying: the sad wins.

amorphous said:

Demonstrating convincingly the ability of such but not doing it is just good. Actually doing it will make them feel cornered. Remember the Chinese saying: the sad wins.

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I agree. Some idiots bluff about bombing the Three Gorge but if PLA blows out the Jade Reservoir you will see Taipei in 10m deep flood and some imaginary power is needed to know what mess it is.

Taiwan is in no any postion to fight, in this world.

By the thread's title, I assume it points to the PLA (army) specifically and not PLAAF and PLAN/PLANAF?

IMO the most likely "clash point" is near-shore islands like matsu and Kinmen islet group. Possibly Penghu as well. I don't believe the PLA/PLAN can mount a successful conventional invasion of Taiwan proper at this time.

If the PLA were to attempt an invasion of Kinmen & Matsu, they'd clash against ROC Army. After the initial artillery barrage from both sides, the PLA Marines would go head to head vs. ROCA & ROCMC M60A3 and M48H MBT's.

The ROCMC is reported to be armed with MILAN ATGM, and the ROCA is reported to be armed with Javelin ATGM's and ATGM's. However, if we look at the actual numbers, they might not have that many launchers to distribute among the infantry.


The WS-2 mentioned earlier in this thread does have published specs of 200km max range. However I doubt these MLRS rockets will have high degree of accuracy at maximum range. These 400mm rockets armed with steel balls and incendiary loads can do massive damage to infantry and light armor, but prolly won't do much against fortified positions (even with HE warhead). Though if you fire enough of it in saturated attack against a small area, you can prolly destroy most of the infrastructure.

adeptitus said:

The WS-2 mentioned earlier in this thread does have published specs of 200km max range. However I doubt these MLRS rockets will have high degree of accuracy at maximum range. These 400mm rockets armed with steel balls and incendiary loads can do massive damage to infantry and light armor, but prolly won't do much against fortified positions (even with HE warhead).

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Those rockets, even with 200km range will:

1) Not be accurate at extreme range as you say.

2) Not be launched from the sea shore of the straits where they are vulnerable, they will be launched from at least a few km inland (thus reducing range), and then the island itself ranges to 100 km wide, so the range will not allow the eastern portions of the island to be hit, even in the narrowest part of the strait, particulalry as the mountain chain (up to 4000 m) along the spine of the island will shield those areas.

3) Can be intercepted by anti-missile defenses.

4) And are something the ROC knows about and has undoubetdly prepared for, making sure many of their military and critical assets are either protected or out of range.

Just something more to chew on and all of which represents threats to the PLA and its plans and intentions.

Its quite doubtful missile defense is going to intercept incoming missiles at any inspiring degree. The general consensus in ROC is not a positive one. The people just dont think its a possible to hold out against the PLA. The constituency is simply expecting the PRC to hold its promise in regards to preconditions for invasion.

Top threat to PLA? Image.

I have just a point to interject about Taiwan issue.
There are 9000 "chinese tourists" missing in Taiwan, last I heard. Missing not because they just ..."got lost". Added to the fact of infiltration by boat, we don't even know exactly how many chinese infiltrators are actually in Taiwan. It is a potential problem if war does break out, and internal intelligence apparatus have been trying to track down these people. But the fact there are 5 million "mainlanders" (Chinese that migrated along with Chiang Kai-shek in 1949) who right now sympathizes with China, it means, these spies have a lot of place to hide, and will probably never be found. And if war does break out, adding to the confusion, Taiwan would be fighting each other first; because from upto generals down to private, mainlanders fill every position, and there is no technology (and probably never will) to check the royalty of every men and women. So, there isn't any solution to this, a war like this will only likely see Taiwan totally destroyed, before US even get there, and even if US does get there, it will be far worst than what Iraq war for american right now, since like I mention above, mainlanders are mixed amongst the native Taiwanese, American will only likely see themselves totally confused, and not knowing who to trust.

So, back to my first point. Image. How these mainlanders perceive China would be critical to PLA's success if China-Taiwan conflict does break out. It is a war of hearts and mind, more so than technology and hardware.

To Dioditto and Fishhead:

Fact and Opinion well it is sometimes difficult to differentiate the 2 in a forum like this isn't it. (but thats what makes it fun!)

To Dioditto:

My wife is taiwanese but I am not. However after visiting taiwan many times, I can assure you even I can tell the difference between someone from the mainland and taiwanese (very easily!!!). It's not just the accent, it is everything. The things you talk about, your mannerisms, everything. And the accent is very different.

To Fishhead:

Unless you are an insider, i.e. say attached to a military unit in taiwan or at least allowed an observation opportunity to evaluate for a decent period of time, like training with taiwanese forces, right now shall we say that your assumption that they are poorly trained, is exactly that an assumption. ditto (pardon the pun!) for their airforce and ballistic missile capability.

Also have you considered what would happen if an invader started killing your family members. You'd fight. Guaranteed. Easy example......Iraq. To annex a country, you not only have to destroy, but you have to occupy.....with boots on the ground. I simply cannot imagine (assumption!) everything will be smoothsailing for the occupying forces after killing many taiwanese from the initial missle barrage.

And you absolutely cannot discount outside intereference. The stakes are too high (Japan and the US).

I am not off topic. The greatest threat to thePLA in the next 3 to 5 years would be to suckered into an attack on taiwan! Because the outcome will not be certain and should the PLA loose, the damage will be irreperable .


Michael

The biggest threat is whether the population of Taiwan will hold out. Most people have family in the ROC military since every male is conscripted at one time or another. The conscripts in the ROC are very likely to follow through when ordered to. But its doubtful that anyone who isnt already a conscript is going to pick up a gun when asked. Most people are more interested in getting a plane ticket than putting up some guerrilla resistance when the ROC is defeated.