The War in the Ukraine

Zichan

Junior Member
Registered Member
I don't know if this is true but strategically speaking this should have been done at the beginning when Ukraine was at its weakest.

Lets play this is true and not a Russian fake out to keep Ukrainian forces North instead of the eastern front... Will this trigger Poland to step in? Would Poland consider this a severe threat to its national security that an invasion is taking place a few kilometers from its border?

Personally I don't think Russia has the forces for such an operation but that hasn't stopped them from making dumb decisions like invading a country with only 200k troops.
That would take them right across the Pripyatsky National Park, the largest marshland in Europe. Mechanised forces would receive huge debuffs along that route.
 

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
We don't know what NATO movements in Poland, Baltic states. Russian reinforcements in Belarus could be countering NATO reinforcements in Poland and Baltics, sending a signal to not play tricks against Belarus territory, not necessarily attack Ukraine again from Belarus territory. Also, the element of surprise is completely gone with a Belarus 2.0 springboard, and would only serve to elongate and strain the logistics supply line even further. Russia should just concentrated their forces against a dot, rather than disperse and dilute themselves again.

I think Ukraine has 1 million mobilized, whereas Russia began with 200K, lost +100-150K due to expired contracts, then mobilized 300K, so Russia has ~400K-500K total... (not including Russia's announcement of expanding Russian military to 1.5 million, up from 1 million).


Weren't you the one who suggested that mobolization is impossible because it's economic and political suicidal for Putin? Really, you shouldn't be one gatekeeping ridiculous suggestions.
How does the 400 to 500k math work? 200-125+300 = 375k. You can maybe take another 25k off from casualties. That comes to 350k. If there was no casualty and take low end of expired contract it is 400k top.
 

H2O

Junior Member
Registered Member
Startling. Perhaps an indicator of fragility of the regime and deep divisions in Ukranian direction.

If Russia manages to take Donbas and destroy Ukraine's counter attacking force in Zaporizhzhia, there is a good chance that Zaluzhnyi and his army will force Zelensky to step down.

Zelensky was never in control. He's just a stand-in, an actor, for his Western handlers. However, his acting career will come to an end.


Rumour that the special military operation will end tomorrow. Maybe formal declaration of war is on the cards?

I certainly hope not. Declaration of war means total war and it would force NATO to go all in as well; no more sneaking around, pretending that this situation is just a skirmish. And soon after, China will have no choice but to act as well.
 

phrozenflame

Junior Member
Registered Member
I don't know if this is true but strategically speaking this should have been done at the beginning when Ukraine was at its weakest.

Lets play this is true and not a Russian fake out to keep Ukrainian forces North instead of the eastern front... Will this trigger Poland to step in? Would Poland consider this a severe threat to its national security that an invasion is taking place a few kilometers from its border?

Personally I don't think Russia has the forces for such an operation but that hasn't stopped them from making dumb decisions like invading a country with only 200k troops.
They cant be serious. So many obvious things can go wrong with this and given that it's the Russians they will. I think with the level of command control, they should just keep things simpler.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Ukrainian crew firing an SPG-9 recoilless gun, which is a nice antique since the SPG-9 was introduced in the Soviet Union back in 1962.

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A Russian fired ATGM ended them however.


Transcript:
In the caption, it was stated that the 3rd OSP reconnaissance officer destroyed the crew of the SPG-9 of the Ukrainian Armed Forces with the help of an ATGM. The attack was carried out at night. During reconnaissance, the Militaj DPR using thermal imaging found the crew of an SPG-9 heavy grenade launcher shelling their previous position. Additionally, camouflaged Ukrainian vehicles were also destroyed. (*)


Who and what is the Sparta Battalion?


Transcript:
TRIBUN-TIMUR.COM - Battalion Sparta is a part of the special forces of the Russian Army . Previously they were a separatist Russian military unit of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) that broke away in eastern Ukraine until they were integrated into the Russian Armed Forces in 2022. This battalion has fought against the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the 2014 Donbas War until now. This battalion is strengthened by 8 thousands of soldiers. Including 1,200 more former Ukrainian army troops who defected to the Spartan battalion.


Italians fighting for the DPR. One of them is wearing the Black Sun.

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supersnoop

Colonel
Registered Member
We used to have a very large mall in my hometown, it had a rooftop parking. On the ramps to get up there used to be warning signs telling of a 2 ton limit for vehicles on the roof.

Well, in Northern Canadian climate we get snow lots of it. They used to clear the snow for decades on this roof with full sized front end loaders and laden dump trucks filled with salt spreading there to keep ice melted.

None of these machines ever fell into the mall, until one day the roof collapsed after a small SUV passed over a certain damaged area, in the middle of summer on a Sunday and two women were crushed to death by concrete slabs.

You may not collapse a structure overloading it but you are indeed inflicting structural damage and severe stress by applying loads it was not designed for. Basically you are playing a crap shoot

You are from Elliot lake?
Sorry to hear about that, rather be in Kyiv
 

Rast

New Member
Registered Member
I don't know if this is true but strategically speaking this should have been done at the beginning when Ukraine was at its weakest.


Lets play this is true and not a Russian fake out to keep Ukrainian forces North instead of the eastern front... Will this trigger Poland to step in? Would Poland consider this a severe threat to its national security that an invasion is taking place a few kilometers from its border?

Personally I don't think Russia has the forces for such an operation but that hasn't stopped them from making dumb decisions like invading a country with only 200k troops.


If Poland officially sends their military outside Poland as an aggressor, its up to the Polish to deal with the costs from the Russian counter attack, and the normal costs of wars. As long as it does not reach NATO land, a war between two non-NATO countries a few km from their boarder is the same as being on the moon when it comes to NATO's protections. So Poland will be alone in those actions just like Turkey was alone in invading Syria. They will not commit to a full expeditionary force, the most they will likely do if they feel threatened is send their old Leopards, with or without Germanys approval, and other military equipment.

I believe some independent calculations put Putin's, and possibly Gerasimov's, stupidity at only sending around 180,000 not even 200,000.
No politically inflammatory statements newbie!
 
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