The War in the Ukraine

temporary1 said:

People are too used to dismissing Europe (justified tbf) so they cannot comprehend when Europe actually does something for real.

Defence spending increase in Europe has been dramatic since 2020. Especially Poland and other countries, there is a complete remilitarization process happening in Europe, some countries are more slow than the others but this process is ongoing and will expand even more.

Putin and Russia should go and do one if they think Europe will roll over for the Russian bear, they have severely miscalculated Europe's will to defend against Russian military aggression

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Very Western pattern. Talk a lot, spend the money, then get no results. They're still over 30 countries that can't get Ukraine to stop losing territory. Wanna see a real military boost, look at China. Military spending is opaque. Look at the aircraft coming off the assembly line, the ships and subs being dropped in the water and the missile bases/silos being built. Europe spends a lot more money but what do that have to show for it?

temporary1 said:

Russia must stop the war and stop deluding itself thinking is some kind of superpower and demanding Ukraine vassalizing to it.

If not, Ukraine will dig in and let Russia try to bite this hard bone for another 10 years whole on the meantime they will keep bombing Russian cities and strategic industries. Zelensky himself openly said Ukraine will keep bombing them, that's the plan:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2074378196137480567

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That works for China. Putin also said Russia's good to fight at least another 5 years when he met Xi. Keep grinding down the whole West as long as they're willing to put their arms in the grinder. Ukraine is small fry; this is about ushering China's new age and Russia will be rewarded for its very positive role.

Russia runing the military campaign based on game theroy calculations.
Means they use linear programing ( ) to optimise the resources for the desired outcome.

Means talking about intentuions and outcomes is like if a layperson try to forecast the absorbtion lines of the C16H18 without quantumechanical calculations.

Other important element is, the EU is more of a final assembly for drones, the components coming from China.

Without chinese supply chain the capacity to make drones collapse , and decrease by magnitude.

Reason is the lack of tank, artirelly and so on supply for Ukraine is the sanctions of china on these components.

Check the fibre optic drones, Ukraine has very limited number of them BECASUE china has restrictions on the export of the fibre optic for drones.

Now, in medium term the drone component supply will collapse as well, as China clamping doen the smuglers and sanction evasion that the EU use to get components.


And the Russian actions against the USA, after seeing whats happened during the USA agression is there any question?

The Russian support coseted countless bases and objects for the USA.

What do you think, whom gives the targeting data, keys for GLONASS, receivers and control modules for missiles ?

Look I think people think I am simping for Europe.
I am not. This situation is perfect for China and the United States.

But as it is Russia looks totally doomed. That is all I am saying.
They have lost escalation dominance and have not been able to deter Ukraine from bombing their capitals.
Their only option out is to seek more assistance from China, but they continue to think they can continue to drag out negotiations with China to try to get a better deal. They can't, they are on a timer. They need to accept the bitter reality that they are stuck and give concessions to China in order to get the technological and military support they need to decisively win in Ukraine. Until that happens they have no way out.

Earlier waiting the US out seemed like an option but clearly that has failed, as even though the US has cut most of their support, Ukraine is still able to bomb Russian cities.

manqiangrexue said:

Very Western pattern. Talk a lot, spend the money, then get no results. They're still over 30 countries that can't get Ukraine to stop losing territory. Wanna see a real military boost, look at China. Military spending is opaque. Look at the aircraft coming off the assembly line, the ships and subs being dropped in the water and the missile bases/silos being built. Europe spends a lot more money but what do that have to show for it?

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Europe has just started in relative terms it's remilitarization. These things take time but it's important to know that from now on, every next year is going to be better than current year in military terms for Europe. All these billions are going into supply chains for military production, defence industrial base, procurements.

Yes there is a lot of waste, corruption, bureaucracy etc, but when you start actually throwing hundreds of billions euros every year, results will start showing up. Just a reminder that 100 billion line in purely defence investments was crossed in 2024. That just 2 years ago.

As I showed you with the dramatic increase in defence expenditures in past few years, EU is committed to stop Russia from demanding Ukraine's vassalization (no they are not deluded enough to actually demand Russia give back annexed land).

manqiangrexue said:

That works for China. Putin also said Russia's good to fight at least another 5 years when he met Xi. Keep grinding down the whole West as long as they're willing to put their arms in the grinder. Ukraine is small fry; this is about ushering China's new age and Russia will be rewarded for its very positive role.

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That's ok, but unrelated. Countries look at interests not at just promised words decades in the future. If Putin wants to have a go at Ukraine for another 10 years with Russian factories and industries under almost daily bombings from Ukraine because of a future so called reward from China, that's his choice.

Dunno if Russian population will agree on doing a Vietnam, good luck I guess.

Rare footage of four Russian UMBP D-30SN guided aerial bombs striking a temporary Ukrainian army deployment site in buildings in the village of Dobropillya in Donbas. The strike was carried out by a Russian Su-34 frontline fighter-bomber.

Fuel tank in the Zaporizhye region is hit by an optically guided Geran.


Two large trucks in the Dnepropetrovsk region gets struck by Gerans.


Two truck parking in Pavlograd and Kharkov gets hit by Gerans.


Two locomotives in Pavlograd and Sinelnikov in the Dnepropetrovsk gets attacked by Gerans.


Two locomotives in Novomoskovsk in the Dnepropetrovsk region gets struck by Gerans.


UAV control point in the Kharkhiv region gets hit by LMUR.


New Postal logistics center in Krivoy Rog burns after hit by Gerans. That's a pretty intense fire for just mail packages.


Russian MoD announces capture of Petro Ivanovka in the Kharkhiv region. If true, this puts Russian forces around 11km to the outskirts of Sumy, well within artillery and drone range.


An auto and truck repair center in the Dnepropetrovsk region is hit by Gerans.



"Russia at this rate can destroy the entire infrastructure of Ukraine, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have nothing to shoot down ballistics, — adviser to the Minister of Defense

↓Ukraine «does not have missiles» to Patriot at all to shoot down ballistics, added Sergei "Flash" Beskrestnov.
↓Today, all 30 Russian ballistic missiles hit their targets, he emphasized.
↓Russia can destroy the entire infrastructure of Ukraine at such a pace of strikes, the adviser to the Minister of Defense emphasized."


Poland's military assistance to Ukraine has decreased 15 times compared to the first two years of the conflict, — Rzeczpospolita

↓The Polish Defense Minister said that the total cost of military assistance transferred to Ukraine amounted to 16.55 billion zlotys. Of these, about 15 billion zlotys occurred in 2022–2023, which corresponds to an average of 7.5 billion zlotys annually.
↓In 2024–2026, the volume of supplies amounted to 1.55 billion zlotys, or on average about 520 million zlotys per year.

Nilou said:

Look I think people think I am simping for Europe.
I am not. This situation is perfect for China and the United States.

But as it is Russia looks totally doomed. That is all I am saying.
They have lost escalation dominance and have not been able to deter Ukraine from bombing their capitals.
Their only option out is to seek more assistance from China, but they continue to think they can continue to drag out negotiations with China to try to get a better deal. They can't, they are on a timer. They need to accept the bitter reality that they are stuck and give concessions to China in order to get the technological and military support they need to decisively win in Ukraine. Until that happens they have no way out.

Earlier waiting the US out seemed like an option but clearly that has failed, as even though the US has cut most of their support, Ukraine is still able to bomb Russian cities.

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How is the situation perfect for the US??? The EU is its right hand man against China in the tech race while Russia basically isn't capable of doing anything significant to support Chinese tech. Having them cancel out in a side-fight is a very bad deal for America. They literally let Russia be useful in the best way it knows how. America has no chance solo against China even with chump change like Japan and S Korea around. The best situation for the US is for Russia to supply the EU with cheap energy while being on amicable terms (ex. Russia joins NATO but maybe isn't fully committed) so the EU and US can focus together against China while Russia stays kinda neutral taking advantage of both but committing nowhere.

China's not asking Russia for any concessions that they are refusing to give. They are on the same page behind the scenes on how to use this to bring down Western dominance. If Russia wanted to use its own power to end this, it could do so in a most savage way as illustrated here but they're still holding back.

temporary1 said:

Europe has just started in relative terms it's remilitarization. These things take time but it's important to know that from now on, every next year is going to be better than current year in military terms for Europe. All these billions are going into supply chains for military production, defence industrial base, procurements.

Yes there is a lot of waste, corruption, bureaucracy etc, but when you start actually throwing hundreds of billions euros every year, results will start showing up. Just a reminder that 100 billion line in purely defence investments was crossed in 2024. That just 2 years ago.

As I showed you with the dramatic increase in defence expenditures in past few years, EU is committed to stop Russia from demanding Ukraine's vassalization (no they are not deluded enough to actually demand Russia give back annexed land).

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Then talk after there are results. Having 90% of funds exploited by corruption, churning out barely anything more is different from producing vessels at China-speed from a "7%" annual increase. Sound like Trump's panic spending $1T, no make that $1.5T on the military because of China's steady and planned military rise. He's not going to get much other than a lot more $400K toilets that clog and $50K bags of screws.

temporary1 said:

That's ok, but unrelated.

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No it's not. It's long term strategy.

temporary1 said:

Countries look at interests not at just promised words decades in the future.

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That's how countries do it when they have elections every 4 years and trash talk everything done by the last guy. If you want real results, you plan several years, even decades in advance, like China did when Mao shook off both the US and USSR knowing that setting China on this course would pay off decades after he was gone.

temporary1 said:

If Putin wants to have a go at Ukraine for another 10 years with Russian factories and industries under almost daily bombings from Ukraine because of a future so called reward from China, that's his choice.

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That's the only way for Russia to get above the West, as China's right hand man. And you say Russian factories and industries are under almost daily bombing but the reality is that Ukraine targets maybe 1 or 2 every week or other week... with a light drone. Don't exaggerate. Russia is the one with the power to bomb anywhere in Ukraine anytime it wants as often as it wants.

temporary1 said:

Dunno if Russian population will agree on doing a Vietnam, good luck I guess.

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Putin doesn't seem to want to. His plan is to have all their combat-aged men come out into his meat grinders. Vietnam would sure be different if the only people left there were ladies, little boys, retirees and men with less than 4 limbs.

Right now, Russia looks like it wants to fight to the last Ukrainian, Europe wants to fight to the last Ukrainian, and Ukraine wants to fight to the last Ukrainian. Odds are good that everybody is going to get what they want.

The war will likely end with Russia badly bruised and battered for a generation, Europe on the verge of economic collapse, and Ukraine with a lot less Ukrainians. It's hard to say who is the winner because everyone looks like a loser. This entire war has been a failure for all parties and a giant waste of blood and treasure, especially for Russia who monumentally fucked up the opening of this war and it's now paying the price in a retarded slow grinding war of human and industrial attrition.

Negotiations aren’t going to be dragged out as there are no negotiations and neither is the war in a stalemate. Some people don’t understand how wars of attrition work and assume it will continue indefinitely. Which it won’t. It will be interesting to watch the reactions when reality comes around instead of propaganda peddling.

FriedButter said:

Negotiations aren’t going to be dragged out as there are no negotiations and neither is the war in a stalemate. Some people don’t understand how wars of attrition work and assume it will continue indefinitely. Which it won’t. It will be interesting to watch the reactions when reality comes around instead of propaganda peddling.

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The war will go on for a long time unless Russia collapses. There is no way EU or the west will accept any kind of ceasefire without full Russian withdrawal. Ukrainains will not accept a ceasefire without full withdrawal.

The west is too arrogant to give up and Ukraine is fully radicalized.

The west has unlimited funding compared to Russia. The combined gdp of us and eu is 50 trillion. Sending 100 billion to ukraine per year is chump change for them. They can keep fighting for decades.

Ukraine will slowly move production to places in the EU outside of Russian missiles, that will ensure they have secure production of drones and other arms. That will increase pressure on russia by a lot.

Ukraine is also not losing much men. 30 million ukrainians can easily mobilize 10 million total man power long term. They have only mobilized around a million so far. They still have 9 million to go. They cab drip feed manpower for decades.

Unless Russia fundamentally changes the warfare situation by either doing their own mass mobilization and mass production of weaponry similar to ww2, this war will not end anytime soon.

Russia needs to mobilize 5 million men, go 20-30% of gdp into war production. Only then they can hope to win