The War in the Ukraine

Nilou said:

None of these stats matters if Ukraine refuses to surrender unless Russia vacates Crimea. This is like Germany attacking the Soviet Union and destroying an Army. Nice job! but it doesn't end the war. You can't win without ending the war.
The earlier strategy of grinding Ukraine down made sense before long-range drones as Ukraine has unfavourable loss ratios, but now? Even if Russia takes over the "line of fortresses" it doesn't stop Ukraine from launching drones to hit Moscow. Even if Russia takes Kharkov it doesn't stop Ukraine from launching drones to hit Moscow.

You need to be able to end a war to actually win a war and all Ukraine has to do is not surrender now, do you get it? That's the problem.
It's like the Republic of China vs. Japan. Chiang is Zelensky! He just needs to wait!
And unlike in China, European arms shipments to Ukraine can't be stopped. Russia isn't able to do it, they haven't been able to do it for the past few years.
European arms production increases at a rate that cannot be matched by Russia anymore.
China's industry is not Russia's industry, do not conflate the two.

Russia needs to change their strategy.
They are just like the US in Afghanistan. Russia has no endgame plan. That is the crux of the issue.

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Ukraine needs to change its strategy. Russia isn't going to vacate Crimea, the Donbass, and now the so called Novorussiya that so happens to be defined by convenience, e.g. Kherson, Zaporyzhia, now apparently Sumy, Kharkhiv and Dnepropetrovosk.

In fact I gather, it won't stop until Russia takes everything east of the Dnieper, and Odessa. Ukraine might end up getting land locked.

Ukraine is fading from its current failed state now, to destroyed state. About 50 to 70 percent of the mineral resources that matter are now "occupied".

Don't conflate that Ukraine has all access to EU resources. Poland has dramatically cut its contributions over the years and is looking to block Ukraine's ascension to the EU. Bulgaria has gone Orban the sequel and Peter Magyar is also echoing Orban. Oh, and Germany's opposition party has come out against the economic burden of supporting Ukraine.

Don't conflate Ukraine has access to US resources which the US is saving for the Middle East and potential conflicts to Taiwan.

And yes, we can conflate Russia with China, Xi and Putin has demonstrated over and over again their Bro-hood. Right now the Russian Navy is conducting an exercise with the PLAN. The Chinese leadership still remembers the things that happened with Hong Kong protests and Xinjiang. This was the pit that Western leadership has dug themselves into.

China has made it clear that a secure Russia means a secure China.


Vizar munitions explosion contains depleted Uranium. Oh boy.



"↓ At the attacked «Vizar» plant in the satellite city of Kyiv - Vishnevoye, shells with depleted uranium and cluster munitions were stored right next to residential buildings, said ex-People's Deputy Mosiychuk*.
↓Because of this and powerful detonation after arrival, 5 streets were practically destroyed, and the population was forced to evacuate.
↓These munitions were transferred to Ukraine in 2023 by Britain and then the United States for Challenger 2 and Abrams tanks."

Nilou said:

There is simply no end-game for Russia at this point. That is the problem for Russia.

Ukraine just has to not surrender and will keep firing european drones into Russia. What can Russia do, bomb Ukraine? They are already doing that. Ukraine's drone launches will only increase in magnitude as european drone factories come online. Russian factories will not be able to match European industry, as much as they say it. And they have much more valuable targets in Russia. All of the actual targets Russia needs to hit are in NATO, invulnerable.

Russia just has no way out.

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Agreed.
And sooner or later, Putin will have to start general mobilisation (if he actually has equipment to equip the reservists at all), and that probably would cause revolution in Russia...

abc123 said:

Agreed.
And sooner or later, Putin will have to start general mobilisation (if he actually has equipment to equip the reservists at all), and that probably would cause revolution in Russia...

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Exactly. People here are arguing with me thinking that will change anything, without actually addressing the issue. Look at the big picture.
Justifying with loss ratios are just like the Americans saying they are winning in Vietnam because they kill 20 vietnamese to one american.
And Vietnam did not have the ability to bomb Washington.

Personal opinion based on the last few years of war observed:
Russia does have an endgame.
Its endgame is to take the rest of the Donetsk region. Then proclaim the goals of the operation have been met and proclaim victory. Then, for the first time in a long time, seriously talk with the Ukrainians, hoping a proper long term ceasefire can be established. If Ukraine doesn't go for it at first, keep taking territory at an even slower pace (while shifting resources to even more bombing raids). And, at some point, possibly years from the Donetsk region takeover - hope that Ukraine will accept the ceasefire. After a ceasefire is in effect for some time, it will be easier to turn it into a longer lasting peace deal.
That's about it.

Totoro said:

Personal opinion based on the last few years of war observed:
Russia does have an endgame.
Its endgame is to take the rest of the Donetsk region. Then proclaim the goals of the operation have been met and proclaim victory. Then, for the first time in a long time, seriously talk with the Ukrainians, hoping a proper long term ceasefire can be established. If Ukraine doesn't go for it at first, keep taking territory at an even slower pace (while shifting resources to even more bombing raids). And, at some point, possibly years from the Donetsk region takeover - hope that Ukraine will accept the ceasefire. After a ceasefire is in effect for some time, it will be easier to turn it into a longer lasting peace deal.
That's about it.

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But Ukraine just has to say no, I do not accept these conditions, I demand return of all territories, and just continues the war, drone bombing Moscow, St. Petersburg, anything they want. And there is nothing Russia can do, they are already already bombing Kiev.

Russia can't just proclaim victory like the United States usually does. The US can do it because it is an ocean away. Russia is not. The war will only end when both sides agree to, and Ukraine just has to not agree until Russia leaves.

There is no end in sight. Ukraine is now Russia's Pakistan but worse, Ukraine can bomb anything in Russia at will with drones and it is internationally accepted because Russia's also bombing Ukraine. Look I used to agree that Russia was steadily winning, but with the introduction of long range drones that can hit Moscow and St. Petersburg that Russia cannot stop, along with increased military production of weapons including drones in Europe for Ukraine, the strategic calculus has clearly changed.

Nilou said:

None of these stats matters if Ukraine refuses to surrender unless Russia vacates Crimea. This is like Germany attacking the Soviet Union and destroying an Army. Nice job! but it doesn't end the war. You can't win without ending the war.
The earlier strategy of grinding Ukraine down made sense before long-range drones as Ukraine has unfavourable loss ratios, but now? Even if Russia takes over the "line of fortresses" it doesn't stop Ukraine from launching drones to hit Moscow. Even if Russia takes Kharkov it doesn't stop Ukraine from launching drones to hit Moscow.

You need to be able to end a war to actually win a war and all Ukraine has to do is not surrender now, do you get it? That's the problem.
It's like the Republic of China vs. Japan. Chiang is Zelensky! He just needs to wait!
And unlike in China, European arms shipments to Ukraine can't be stopped. Russia isn't able to do it, they haven't been able to do it for the past few years.
European arms production increases at a rate that cannot be matched by Russia anymore.
China's industry is not Russia's industry, do not conflate the two.

Russia needs to change their strategy.
They are just like the US in Afghanistan. Russia has no endgame plan. That is the crux of the issue.

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1. Hi. Hello. I think like many people who have debated me before, you forgot to answer this and pretended it doesn't exist:
2. Why don't you turn your logic around and note that Ukraine and all of Europe has no endgame with Russia, which is actually doing more damage while being more restrained and gaining territory as opposed to losing ground? If you don't ever do flip checks on your logic, it's possible to argue that a mouse has the advantage on a lion. Time is on Russia's side because Pax Sinica is the future and the Western-dominated order is quickly passing.

abc123 said:

Agreed.
And sooner or later, Putin will have to start general mobilisation (if he actually has equipment to equip the reservists at all), and that probably would cause revolution in Russia...

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LMFAO why would that cause revolution in Russia? Why do you think that any of these countries can mobilize, but Russians, a people known for taking suffering, for pride, a people known as the Combat Race, would revolt rather than go to war? No, Euros would revolt over the air conditioning laws or raising the retirement age before Russians back away from war.

tamsen_ikard said:

Russia can sustain it but Ukraine cannot?

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Exactly

tamsen_ikard said:

Hahaha. Complete misreading of what is going on in this war.

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That's why you don't answer any of my posts and pretend nothing was said so you can repeat a fantasy, right?

tamsen_ikard said:

Ukraine is not losing much men per day and can keep mobilizing for many more years to come.

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I just remember Russia returned over 500 Ukrainian bodies and Ukraine had about 30 to give back. If Ukraine can fight for many more years, Russia can fight for many more centuries.

tamsen_ikard said:

The biggest issue they face is the funding and weapons support from EU and they will continue to get that.

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That's not a problem; that's the purpose of the war. Grind down the entire West for a Russia-friendly Pax Sinica.

tamsen_ikard said:

Russia on the hand, do not have any one to provide free money, China won't do it.

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So because Russia is fighting on its own power while Ukraine is the beggar of the world, you conclude that Russia is more desperate than Ukraine? You must think all the beggars on the streets are kings!

It's not that China won't do it; Russia never asked. China will not allow this to go south for Russia because things are going so well for China as the war continues.

tamsen_ikard said:

They also lack the production capacity of the combined might of EU+US+Korea+Japan.

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1. Not really. Russia+North Korea are beasts at weapons production.
2. China hasn't been tapped in yet, but it doesn't mean we'll stay out.

tamsen_ikard said:

Russia much more likely to give up and break rather than Ukraine.

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Which is why they hit Ukraine 50 times every time they get hit and keep taking more territory? Your motto is give up while it's good, eh? Take it to the casinos, not on the battlefield. LOL

Nilou said:

But Ukraine just has to say no, I do not accept these conditions, I demand return of all territories, and just continues the war, drone bombing Moscow, St. Petersburg, anything they want. And there is nothing Russia can do, they are already already bombing Kiev.

Russia can't just proclaim victory like the United States usually does. The US can do it because it is an ocean away. Russia is not. The war will only end when both sides agree to, and Ukraine just has to not agree until Russia leaves.

There is no end in sight. Ukraine is now Russia's Pakistan but worse, Ukraine can bomb anything in Russia at will with drones and it is internationally accepted because Russia's also bombing Ukraine. Look I used to agree that Russia was steadily winning, but with the introduction of long range drones that can hit Moscow and St. Petersburg that Russia cannot stop, along with increased military production of weapons including drones in Europe for Ukraine, the strategic calculus has clearly changed.

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So, Black Knight strategy then?

Nilou said:

But Ukraine just has to say no, I do not accept these conditions, I demand return of all territories, and just continues the war, drone bombing Moscow, St. Petersburg, anything they want. And there is nothing Russia can do, they are already already bombing Kiev.

Russia can't just proclaim victory like the United States usually does. The US can do it because it is an ocean away. Russia is not. The war will only end when both sides agree to, and Ukraine just has to not agree until Russia leaves.

There is no end in sight. Ukraine is now Russia's Pakistan but worse, Ukraine can bomb anything in Russia at will with drones and it is internationally accepted because Russia's also bombing Ukraine. Look I used to agree that Russia was steadily winning, but with the introduction of long range drones that can hit Moscow and St. Petersburg that Russia cannot stop, along with increased military production of weapons including drones in Europe for Ukraine, the strategic calculus has clearly changed.

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Ukraine can but so what? A country that cant even sustain itself after it loses key territories critical to its own survival is somehow gonna outlast Russia which now has doesn't even need to worry about the frontline as much for a few drone bombs which Ukraine is doing already? It will have even less cards than today.

Btw there seems to be an assumption EU is gonna keep funding this for free forever for some reason. There's a difference between being willing to do a high risk investment that hopefully pays off which Ukraine can still pull off as long as it holds the line and basically funding a sunk cost once its kicked out with no feasible way back in. As a country, its gonna get more expensive just to keep Ukraine operating after those losses and people will start asking what is it for.

Ukraine has been saying for quite some time now - "we want Russia to stop attacking. When Russia wants a true ceasefire, we are for it and we too will stop strikes" So there is a chance that when Russia does say "ok, lets have a long ceasefire" that Ukraine will say yes. Of course, for that to work, Russia will have to keep taking territory even after Donetsk falls - just to have some pressure on Ukraine, something to work with in negotiatons. Otherwise, if Russia went full defensive after Donetsk, Ukraine would have little incentive to want a ceasefire.

Totoro said:

Ukraine has been saying for quite some time now - "we want Russia to stop attacking. When Russia wants a true ceasefire, we are for it and we too will stop strikes" So there is a chance that when Russia does say "ok, lets have a long ceasefire" that Ukraine will say yes. Of course, for that to work, Russia will have to keep taking territory even after Donetsk falls - just to have some pressure on Ukraine, something to work with in negotiatons. Otherwise, if Russia went full defensive after Donetsk, Ukraine would have little incentive to want a ceasefire.

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Russia must stop the war and stop deluding itself thinking is some kind of superpower and demanding Ukraine vassalizing to it.

If not, Ukraine will dig in and let Russia try to bite this hard bone for another 10 years while on the meantime they will keep bombing Russian cities and strategic industries. Zelensky himself openly said Ukraine will keep bombing them, that's the plan: