The War in the Ukraine

HighGround said:

gelgoog said:

Russia produces 50-60 BMP IFVs a month. They are not going to run out of tracked infantry carriers anytime soon.

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On pace to make in excess of 400 BMP-3s if we're just counting batches that have been posted on Telegram.

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From ukr.warspotting.net - IFV and APC losses (destroyed, abandoned and captured) from 1 July 2023 to 26 July 2024.


Table calculated manually so minor errors may occur.


The increase in losses of both baseline and new BMP-3 seem to confirm that deliveries are ongoing but the loss rate of all BMP-3 is 30% on average over 12 months and approaches 50% in some months of 2024.

If we include all IFV/APC then loss rate for Jul 2023-Jul 2024 exceeds this new (50 per month) BMP-3 production by 100% to 300%. All BMPs are built in Kurganmashavod. The other facilities that have ability to work with BMP-1 and 2 will have to do repairs, overhauls, refurbishments and upgrades. But everything takes time and the vehicles have to be overhauled regularly if they are to continue service. Note that Soviet designs weren't designed for long service time. They were to be replaced after 20-years approximately so Russia is already working on stocks that used up to 150% of service life before the war started. In combat the vehicles wear out at rates orders of magnitude greater than in peacetime.

This means that Russia is absolutely running out of vehicles and will stare at empty stores and filled-up junkyards as soon as next year and then the only vehicles available to the Russian military will be the ones in active service and capable of service under repair in factories which may not constitute 150% of active units considering the post-2022 expansion of the armed forces.

The only people to claim otherwise are:

gelgoog said:

These retard idiots.

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Still BMPs (apart from BMP-3), BTRs and MT-LBs are such poor quality vehicles that it won't matter much. The losses of tanks are going to hurt Russia much more. Averaging warspotting and Oryx Russia has lost ~3000 tanks but that number should be increased by a similar amount of tanks that have been overhauled more than twice during the war which has lasted for 30 months or 2,5 years. You can only use a tank in combat conditions so much.

For reference :

• T-80 needs total factory overhaul after 1000 hours (turbine!) -> 4 months of driving 8 hours daily -> 1,5 annual overhauls considering 3 months for overhaul time total.
• T-72 need total factory overhaul after 14 thousand kms -> 3 months of driving at 20km/h 8 hours daily -> 2 annual overhauls considering 3 months for overhaul time total.

A hypothetical tank (statistical position in a military unit) that serves continuously (but crews and vehicles are replaced) since Feb 2022 would have to be overhauled at a factory at minimum: 3 times for T-80 and 5 times for T-72. This applies for 3000 tanks in active service and 3000 reactivated from reserves to replace those active when they are sent to overhaul - total of up to 6000 tanks in rotation to maintain 3000 active vehicles and ~1000-1500 at the front.

^ This explains why tank factories have to operate 24/7.

This also effectively doubles the practical losses for Russia as while they may have another 3 thousand tanks nominally replacing the 3 thousand lost tanks these new tanks having been used in combat for ~1-2 years and overhauled more than twice are not equivalent to new tanks that can participate in another large-scale operation. This is why Russia kept a total of up to 7-9 thousand tanks in reserve - they assumed losses but mostly the requirement for rotation of large numbers and inevitable wear.

The same obviously applies to IFVs and APCs but they're less of a problem since infantry can be carried by different types of transporters while a tank needs to be replaced by a tank. So Russia is going to reach the rock bottom next year and it won't be able to replace the losses at the current production rates.

Also - the Russian central bank has set the interest rate to 18%. Previously it was at 16% so the inflation in Russia is increasing. That's the interest rate that western countries like the US had in early 1980s when the fallout of the Bretton Woods collapse and the oil crisis put them in precarious position. This crisis caused widespread unrest in the Soviet bloc and led to its collapse. So again, no matter what "these retard idiots" claim if your base interest rate is 18% you're in serious trouble and the economy will need at least a decade of normal operations to recover. (RIP Turkey @50%) Russia has about 1 year to end the war and return the economy to normal to readjust or it's going to catch fire.

For context: Russia has interest rates higher than India, Brazil or South Africa.



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Some archival data:

In Sept 2023 I was interested in reactivation of BMP-1 so I made a table of BMP losses by type and then calculated the ratios using BMP-3 as baseline. It showed the relative change of BMP-2/BMP-3 (trend 4:1 -> 3:1) and BMP-1/BMP-3 ( trend 1:1 ->1,5:1) losses which correlated with information about large numbers of BMP-1s being brought out of storage.



That was definitely a temporary measure to plug in gaps as BMP-1 is not as desirable as BMP-2 and production or reactivation of BMP-2s seems to have worked since they still constitute the largest number of lost vehicles.

Table of losses from Oryx by specific date: 23 Apr 22, 14 Sept 22, 24 Feb 23, 31 Aug 23, 15 Mar 24, 9 May 24 - approximately every 5 to 6 months. Minor errors due to wrong references.



Period of highest losses by type which indicate location of equipment:

• BMP-3, BTR-82 and MT-LB - Kherson & Kharkiv withdrawals in late 2022 - Western Military District units for BMP-3
• BMP-2 - Mid-2022 fighting across the front and slightly reduced until end of Ukrainian offensive mid-2023 - entire front
• BMP-1 - Ukrainian offensive in mid 2023 - newly formed units in the south.

After mid-2023 I stopped paying attention to unit location so I'm not as familiar with new losses but the spike in BMP-3s lost is notable. What is more notable is the trend of losses which dropped to ~50% of early war by late 2023 reflecting fall of intensity, apart from one-off assaults like Avdiivka.

Russia has no vehicles for holding of the frontline and massed assault both. They wait for Ukraine to fracture because they can't do it themselvesbecause any equipment losses now will be much more destabilising to forcereadiness than in 2022.

Again, only "these retard idiots" insist otherwise. But alas so many of them...

Footage of an artillery duel in Ukraine has been published, between the Russian 203-mm 2S7M Malka SPG and the Ukrainian 155-mm German-made PzH 2000 SPG. The Malka SPG is the most powerful weapon in the Russian army, with a firing range of up to 47 kilometers. The Panzerhaubitze 2000 SPG began to be produced in Germany in 1998, with a firing range of up to 67 km with an active-reactive projectile. The artillery battle was filmed in the Avdiivka direction. The Ukrainian PzH 2000 SPG was destroyed with the third shot at a range of 20 km, the Malka SPG used a high-explosive fragmentation projectile. The fire of the Malka SPG was adjusted by a crew from the Russian ZALA reconnaissance drone.

Russian servicemen spoke about the experience of using the Shturm-S self-propelled anti-tank missile systems in Ukraine; the 9P149 combat vehicles have not been shown for almost a year. The Shturm-S anti-tank system was adopted for service in 1979 and was created on the chassis of the MT-LB transporter-tractor; technical information about it is on the channel. The 9P149 combat vehicle is highly rated by soldiers for its cross-country ability, reliability, speed and squat silhouette. Details in the video.

Chevrons and medals from captured or destroyed Ukrainian units in Urozhayne. These indicates units either surrendered or died holding their ground rather than retreating.



FH-70 howitzer found destroyed.


FAB arrivals on Ukrainian equipment hangers in Belopolye, Sumy Region.


FAB-250s hit a Ukrainian fortification. These might also be UMPBs.


ODAB-1500 arrival in the Kharkhiv region.


Russians have almost captured the entire of Krasnogorovka, leaving a thin strip for the Ukrainians at the north. Tanks of the 5th Brigade working on Ukrainian positions.


Artillery and aviation of the North Group working on Ukrainian fortifications on the Mnogohezhki fortified area. FPV drones hitting Ukrainian positions.


China exported $390 million worth of metal working machines to Russia compared to $94 million earlier.


The AFU is creating zombie brigades instead of replenishing existing depleted ones while the staff of the TCC alone is over 100,000.


Ukrainian deployment points taken out by artillery fire from the 238th and the 57th Regiment using MSTA-B howitzers.


17 Ukrainian marines surrendered in the Dniepr islands. Prisoner accused their commander of abandonment.


Ukrainian ammunition depot taken out by a FAB in Odradokamianka.


Su-34 crashed on training flight. Crew ejected. Volgograd region.


FAB arrives on a Ukrainian UAV hanger and depot in Kherson.


X-38ML hits a building used as a shelter for Ukrainian troops in Kherson.


Marines of the 40th Brigade working on Molniya FPV drones.


T-64BV taken out by Lancet from the North Group of forces.


FABs arrive in the forest plantations near Liptsy.


Russian drone provides fire correction to artillery. In the course of counterbattery the Ukrainian artillery unit was taken out.


Maxxpro hit by RPG and abandoned while a T-64BV and a puckup was hit by FPV drones. The crew was later captured and questioned.


Krasnopol enters through the hole of the roof in a shelter occupied by Ukrainian troops.


Non stop FABing of Ukrainian positions and shelters in Volchansk.

Tam said:

China exported $390 million worth of metal working machines to Russia compared to $94 million earlier.

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So they think Russia cannot make its own laser cutting machines? Seriously? Jesus these people are so dumb.

Russia also can make its own fiber lasers. Of course some things might be imported like chips for control hardware, or electric engines. Do these people think the Western tool makers do not import such components from China as well? They would likely be just as vulnerable to a supply crunch.

Of course a lot of machine tools in Russia used to be imported and the industry lacks enough scale to supply the whole market demand. But if they needed machines for the MIC they could make them. The naval shipyards in Russia, like Severnaya Verf, have been busy installing laser cutting machines. None of them are imported.

According to estimates by Tufts University scholar and Russian military expert P. Luzin, 90% of machine tools imported to Russia come from China. And those manufactured in Russia contain Chinese parts and engines.

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That explains a lot. If I am not mistaken Luzin is also the idiot who thinks UVZ can only build up to 30 new T-90 tanks a year and that they need to import the ball bearings to make the tanks.

Breaking news.

Russian Tricolor is hoisted on the northern part of the city of Krasnogorovka.


Russian missile strike on Ukrainian positions in Burhunka, Kherson.


The 238th firing at Ukrainian concentrations in Krasnogorovka, supporting the advance there. MSTA-B firing.


Other elements of the 238th supporting the advance towards Konstantinovka village. MSTA-B firing.


Another Ukrainian occupied shelter betrayed, exposed and taken out by LMUR. Thanks to poor adherance of security procedures.


Krasnopol takes out a howitzer followed by a Lancet taking out an M109.

Better footage of the X-38ML strike on a Ukrainian military base in Burgunka Kherson. The missile is guided simultaneously by three drones.


Salient forming in the Kupyansk front, threatening to encircle Ukrainian forces.


Both Progress and Wolf (Volchye) not ours, admits a commander in the AFU 47th Brigade.


Ukrainian shelter in Prechistovka near Ugledar gets taken out by LMUR.


FAB hit on a Ukrainian UAV depot and control point. Location is determined by tracking drones and transports to the building.


Ukrainian soldier picks up his drone in the open and that was enough to determine the location of this nest. The Russians then sent an FPV drone inside it.


Russians have taken much of the urban development of Krasnogorovka and is now reported entering the town up north, which is Yasnobrodovka.


Burning Maxxpro in the front. These and M113s have become death traps in the conflict.


A Ukrainian howitzer gets taken out by a Lancet from the 14th SPN Brigade.


Bradley gets taken out by Kornet ATGM.


Minivan owners in Odessa marking their cars Not TCC to prevent them from getting burned by partisans.


Result of a FAB strike at a Ukrainian 'police station' which is code word for a temporary deployment point.


Burning British FV103 Spartan APC.


A commander of the AFU 47th says the AFU cannot train mechanized units normally because there is not enough diesel fuel.


Russians advance south of Konstantinovka village.


Russian forces advance in Zalizne.


Russians advance west of Progress and Lozuvatske.


Russians advance in the TO5 highway towards Vodayne.

Sinnavuuty said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1816550202905625045

Romania, a NATO member state, has started shooting down Russian drones in Ukrainian airspace. A new video shows Romanian Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns shooting down Russian suicide drones across the river separating Romania from Ukraine, near Izmail. Romania was forced to act after at least one suicide drone landed 11 km deep in its territory and other drones flew in its direction.

Russia made one of the biggest attacks of the war. 45 tanks + infantry vehicles. It was a massacre. They lost at least 1/4 of the armored vehicles before they decided to retreat.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1815450621576655104

CovertCabal made a video about the MT-LB count.

And

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This obnoxious guy and his Ruzzia this Ruzzia that clickbait titles. Everytime he makes a video about how Ruzzia failed, I wake up the next day only to find Ruzzia has gained more territories, signed more trade deals, a few videos of Ukrainian youth getting beat up and dragged into recruitment vehicles in front of their mothers and fathers, and tens of Iskander, Kh-101, FAB and Geran hits all over Ukraine. Ruzzia has failed. Please donate to my Patreon and check out this link below of how Ruzzia has failed. Thank you have a wonderful day. Oh, and Ruzzia has failed.

iBBz said:

This obnoxious guy and his Ruzzia this Ruzzia that clickbait titles. Everytime he makes a video about how Ruzzia failed, I wake up the next day only to find Ruzzia has gained more territories, signed more trade deals, a few videos of Ukrainian youth getting beat up and dragged into recruitment vehicles in front of their mothers and fathers, and tens of Iskander, Kh-101, FAB and Geran hits all over Ukraine. Ruzzia has failed. Please donate to my Patreon and check out this link below of how Ruzzia has failed. Thank you have a wonderful day. Oh, and Ruzzia has failed.

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I think he is a Ukrainian living in Switzerland. It is probably a nice gig selling this copium.

LMUR hits another building occupied by Ukrainian troops.


M777 and ammo depot gets taken out by Lancets from the VDV.


T-72B3 hits a Ukrainian observation post across the Dniepr.


Russian advances in the Torestk and Pokrovsk directions.


Two strike arrivals reported on Kharkhiv.


A building occupied by the 102nd Territorial Defense Brigade of the AFU was hit by an UPAB-1500. Then as Ukrainian evacuation teams worked on the site, a FAB-1500 arrives on a second target. This in Gulyaypol. Note about the UPAB. They are designed to detonate underground or when it's deep inside a building or bunker.


Yevgonovka falls to the Russians.


After the capture of Razdolovka, the 106th VDV advances to Perezdnoye. Ukrainian fortifications and strongholds left smoking along the way.


Ukrainian howitzer hit by Lancet in Yampil.


Krasnopol strike at Hravske, Kharkhiv region. Mushroom cloud like that, must have hit a Ukrainian ammo depot.


TOS hits Ukrainian positions in Niu York.


Drones discovered two Marders which fled to a forest. A missile strike was conducted on their location.


Russians have reached Zhelannoye and is clearing the location.


Destroyed Leopard 2A5.


Another UPAB strike on a Ukrainian command post in Velikaya Novoselka.



X-38ML missile flattens this building used as a deployment point by Ukrainian forces. The equivalent explosive power of an X-38 is about like a FAB-250.