The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
Even if nothing happens there within the next few months. Ukraine will have to divert resources that could have been sent to the frontlines but instead they are now sitting next to Belarus due to the buildup of Russians.
An interesting thread about these Iranian missiles.
Its pretty interesting how Ukrainians engage in their peculiar form of coping where they reassure themselves that every cruise missile launched against critical infrastructure is one less that can be launched at targets on the frontlines, when they themselves are constantly launching missile attacks against Belgorod, most of which are shot down. And its worse for Ukraine since their missile arsenal is extremely limited compared to Russia's.
Interesting Tweets from Elon Musk about his Starlink system in the conflict, it would be the only communications system (even the GPS is blocked) that continues to work in Ukraine, but the system is under threat as the Russian interference capacity is 'improving':
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Reports from Russian telegram, and a Ukrainian serviceman (who later deleted his post due to OPSEC) indicated that Ukraine launched an offensive in Kherson early morning yesterday, an assertion backed up by FIRMS data.
Firms data overlaid on a 3D map
Regular FIRMS data
What do they have to show for it? Well...not much.
The Ukrainian offensive began in the early morning when Ukrainian artillery and MLRS heavily shelled the Russian military positions. Under the artillery cover, small assault groups of Ukrainian servicemen on armored vehicles attempted to cut the Dudchany-Mylovoe road. They were followed by dozens of Ukrainian tanks and infantry vehicles that should reinforces and expand the stronghold.
The attack was carried out by forces of two infantry battalions with the support of about 30 tanks and 50 infantry fighting vehicles.
In their turn, Russian forces detected the Ukrainian manoeuvres with reconnaissance UAVs and responded with heavy artillery fire. Russian aircraft also shelled the advancing enemy troops in the steppe.
The failed offensive operation resulted in heavy losses of the AFU. The Russian military thwarted the Ukrainian attempts to bring reserves into the battle. According to preliminary reports, at least 15 Ukrainian tanks and 20 enemy infantry fighting vehicles were destroyed, the AFU lost more than 100 servicemen.
Based on the reports and FIRMS data, its pretty safe to say the pocket of fires southwest of Mylove is Ukrainian MLRS and artillery shelling Russian staging points. The line of fires south of Nova Kam'yanka (I'm willing to bet there's a road there), which is controlled by Ukraine, likely is Ukrainian armor and infantry being hit by Russian artillery. Based on the lack of changes on the ground, its safe to conclude the first wave of this offensive fell flat.
Firms data overlaid on a 3D map
Regular FIRMS data
What do they have to show for it? Well...not much.
The Ukrainian offensive began in the early morning when Ukrainian artillery and MLRS heavily shelled the Russian military positions. Under the artillery cover, small assault groups of Ukrainian servicemen on armored vehicles attempted to cut the Dudchany-Mylovoe road. They were followed by dozens of Ukrainian tanks and infantry vehicles that should reinforces and expand the stronghold.
The attack was carried out by forces of two infantry battalions with the support of about 30 tanks and 50 infantry fighting vehicles.
In their turn, Russian forces detected the Ukrainian manoeuvres with reconnaissance UAVs and responded with heavy artillery fire. Russian aircraft also shelled the advancing enemy troops in the steppe.
The failed offensive operation resulted in heavy losses of the AFU. The Russian military thwarted the Ukrainian attempts to bring reserves into the battle. According to preliminary reports, at least 15 Ukrainian tanks and 20 enemy infantry fighting vehicles were destroyed, the AFU lost more than 100 servicemen.
Based on the reports and FIRMS data, its pretty safe to say the pocket of fires southwest of Mylove is Ukrainian MLRS and artillery shelling Russian staging points. The line of fires south of Nova Kam'yanka (I'm willing to bet there's a road there), which is controlled by Ukraine, likely is Ukrainian armor and infantry being hit by Russian artillery. Based on the lack of changes on the ground, its safe to conclude the first wave of this offensive fell flat.
You need to be careful when quoting numbers to prove anything. Numbers must be accompanied by contexts, otherwise it is useless. The USNI article actually acknowledged that
In 2017, a that the Kalibr naval cruise missile had an accuracy of 30 meters and the Kh-101 air-launched cruise missile had an “accuracy of five to 50 meters,” which is quite different than a “few meters” or near-zero CEP. While the variation in accuracy is not explained, 50 meters is not even close to near-precision accuracy.
Although the author acknowledged the lack of explanation, he still continued making his conclusion. This is very unprofessional. It is like an engineer saying "although I don't know how the data comes about, I use it in my calculation anyway". What is that?
A cruise missile flying more than 1000km can reach CEP 30 to 50m using only INS without GNSS or terminal guidance. For a reference ICBM reaches CEP 200m to 50m using INS after flying 10,000km. If you remove GPS and TV guidance from Tomahawk, it won't do any better than Kalibr. So the key is how exactly that 30m and 50m achieved under what circumstance with what configuration.
It makes the most sense. Lviv is a major stop for western weapons that come in from Poland. If anything Lviv should have been target #1 once Ukraine started getting heavier weapon systems. A competent air force would have taken out suspected weapons hubs around the Lviv oblast.
From the videos of their Kalibr strikes, they seem to be a hell of a lot more accurate than even 30m CEP. 30 to 50 meters is more than the size of your average house. It's very significant inaccuracy. It seems to hit within 10m or less of where it looks like it should hit, although in the videos there is no way to see where it was targeted.
They hit small buildings dead center when tasked for it, so I don't know. Perhaps they use an alternate guidance method when more precision is required? Even in Syria they were very accurate, and that was during their combat debut. Years have gone by to make improvements