The War in the Ukraine

Separate Iranian sources report that the Russian army has ordered new Arash-2 kamikaze drones from Iran. This model is more powerful than the Shahed-136 UAV, or as it is called Geran-2 in Russia. There is very little information on the Arash-2 UAV, it is known that it operates at a distance of up to 2000 kilometers and has a homing system. The UAV is a cruise missile and is capable of loitering over a target. Drone "Arash-2" is a new development of the Iranian army, perhaps its early version - "Arash-1" will be delivered to Russia.


Footage of the impact of the Russian kamikaze drone "Lancet" in the S-300 air defense system of the Ukrainian army. Usually S-300 air defense systems are not designed to work on such small targets, it is not even economically profitable, the complex should have been covered by other air defense systems designed to work on small targets, but apparently they were not. The cost of the S-300 air defense system is about $250 million. When attacked by a drone, it was attacked by soldiers with MANPADS, but all the missiles missed.


The Buk-M1 air defense system of the Ukrainian army was hit by a Russian kamikaze drone Lancet in the Zaporozhye region. Judging by the trenches nearby, the Buk-M1 air defense system was placed right on the front line


A series of strikes by a kamikaze Lancet drone in Ukraine. Footage of the use of the modernized loitering ammunition "Lancet" on the armored vehicles of the Ukrainian army. As reported, UAV crews of the Russian Airborne Forces worked in the Nikolaev-Krivoy Rog direction.

I've been watching Russian air strikes after Putin's "we're done with cruise missiles for now" thing and it seems like what's actually happening is they stopped using Kalibr and KH-101 but did not let up on the kamikaze UAVs.

This makes sense tactically. Given the cost difference if the goal is to disrupt the country and drain AFU's air defense then daily wave of several dozen Shahed-136 is perfect. If Ukraine doesn't intercept them then you're going to get 50kg of HE delivered once per week to each transformer station in the country. IF AFU does try to do something about them then they're draining their SAM and losing fighters being baited into drone hunting.

The expensive stuff can be saved up to hit more important targets of opportunity or held back for future tactical support for potential Belarus front.

Temstar said:

I've been watching Russian air strikes after Putin's "we're done with cruise missiles for now" thing and it seems like what's actually happening is they stopped using Kalibr and KH-101 but did not let up on the kamikaze UAVs.

This makes sense tactically. Given the cost difference if the goal is to disrupt the country and drain AFU's air defense then daily wave of several dozen Shahed-136 is perfect. If Ukraine doesn't intercept them then you're going to get 50kg of HE delivered once per week to each transformer station in the country. IF AFU does try to do something about them then they're draining their SAM and losing fighters being baited into drone hunting.

The expensive stuff can be saved up to hit more important targets of opportunity or held back for future tactical support for potential Belarus front.

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Your analysis of the situation is quite reasonable, that the Russians are using suicide drones instead of cruise missiles against the air defences because they are cheaper and thus would be more effecient in draining the AFU's air defences so as to save up the cruise missiles for something more important. so I don't know what does this clown who reacted with a laugh emoji to your post think of it! not that I care but instead of hiding and using the laugh reaction as a dislike button (for the purpose of flame baiting probably) may be he should reply to you and make it clear what does he find to be false regarding your analysis?

Just my thoughts. The Lancet that hit the S-300 launchers might be a new version of the Lancet with an extended body length and extended forward wings with greater range than the original Lancet. It doesn't look the same as the other pics of the Lancet. How much greater range than the original 40km I don't know.

Soldier30 said:

The Buk-M1 air defense system of the Ukrainian army was hit by a Russian kamikaze drone Lancet in the Zaporozhye region. Judging by the trenches nearby, the Buk-M1 air defense system was placed right on the front line

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Already taken apart, it's not a Buk-M1, but a muzzle made to resist drones.

In general, there is a drone problem and no cheap solution. Or we need to send thousands of mopeds over Russian infrastructure ourselves, a task Ukraine can do.

There seems to be a tremendous amount of mobilization happening in Belarus, both Russians and Belarusian, they are marked with a new tactical sign:






I wonder why the 2, but should fighting erupt up north I'm going to call this "2nd Belorussian Front"

Belarusian media are reporting at least six MiG-31 spotted over Minsk carrying Kinzhal hypersonic missile.

I'm trying to find out what happened in Kherson, you know the Ukrainian offensive that caused enough alarm to trigger some sort of evacuation of the city. Russians are saying this:
There's only a few photos of destroyed soft skin vehicles to prove their point, so nothing conclusive:




Ukrainian side are all saying this:

Otherwise all radio silent. NASA FIRMS data showing a lot of fires burning in the area so certainly there's been intense fighting:

going for lviv makes no military sense. it is too close to poland, and also very far from russia, not to mention inhospitable terrain.

drowingfish said:

going for lviv makes no military sense. it is too close to poland, and also very far from russia, not to mention inhospitable terrain.

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I would say that coming south along the east bank of the Dnieper from Belarus and destroying bridges, cutting supply and isolating the east would have been the best thing to do since last February... If the only thing they can move east are with small boats under fire of attack helicopter it's just over.

tabu said:

In general, there is a drone problem and no cheap solution. Or we need to send thousands of mopeds over Russian infrastructure ourselves, a task Ukraine can do.

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For now, not really.

I mean drones with the same class as the Shahed-136 are only produced by Israel and Taiwan. Israel has refused to provide weapons to Ukraine so far .

Most of the kamikaze drones in the west are rather small Switchblade types, which as we have seen from the only videos posted of them, they don't do much.