The War in the Ukraine

Biscuits said:

Yeah, I'm not an expert but the relative intactness of torn off part of the bridge could have just happened due to damaged supports tearing after the truck bomb.

Ukraine has not talked about the mode of attack, Russia claims it is a truck and there's footage that seems to show exactly that. There's no real biased interest for Russians to claim it is a truck over a preplanted charge or a bomb stuck under the train etc. Either way it is still an equal level of failure in Russian intelligence.

The thing is while Russia may have civilian level access to Chinese satellite intel, almost all Russian weapons courtesy of their "modernization" never acquired ability to be guided by Chinese ISR, and the PLA itself isn't involved right now in directing Russian strikes either. So having some images don't help too much.

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pmc said:

why you need satellite when drones and aircraft can see things right next to border. satellite only comes into play when aircraft cannot reach.

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Russia is not repeating Saudi mistakes. you have to observe carefully.

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Explosion on the Crimean bridge: what is known at the moment

Early this morning, Ukraine carried out a terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge in order to cut off the peninsula's supply lines.

Based on video surveillance footage, a car packed with explosives was detonated as a train carrying fuel passed over the railroad tracks. However, footage from a different angle is needed to accurately determine the cause.

At the moment of detonation, cars were passing on the bridge, with a high probability that their drivers and passengers were killed. In this case, Ukraine is responsible for the targeted killing of civilians.

At least two spans of one of the road bridge's branches have collapsed. The detailed extent of the damage will be understood later, but traffic will be halted for several weeks at a minimum to prevent further sabotage.

The railway line after the tanker fire appears to have suffered only minor damage: it is possible that traffic will be restored within a few days. At the same time, even such a short period will create logistical problems for the Crimea and the Southern Group of Forces.

That is why the decision was made to resume the work of the ferry crossing, as announced by the Governor of Crimea Sergey Aksyonov.

What's next?

First of all, at least this time do not make loud statements about the decision-making centers: there is more harm than good for a long time.

Second, start destroying AFU supply transport hubs. It is difficult to count how many times we have written about the need to remove bridges over the Dnieper River in the territory controlled by the AFU and in western Ukraine. At that time it was purely a military necessity, but now we are also talking about moral considerations.

Third, after the attack on the Crimean bridge (and earlier, the regular shelling of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant), there is nothing to prevent Ukraine from hitting the energy infrastructure. Especially the power autotransformers of six 750kV substations, whose failure could de-energize the country's power system.

We will not talk about how inaction in this situation will turn out. Let's ask a question: if this is not a reason for really drastic measures, what is it then?

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FairAndUnbiased said:

because you need to see deep behind enemy lines to understand their logistics chain. that is why satellites are strategic reconnaissance, what they see should influence your entire strategy. drones and aircraft are only tactical, they are used for designating specific targets.

we have a real world example in the late August Kherson-Kharkov offensives. Russian satellites saw a buildup near Kherson August 26 or so, they diverted their forces towards Kherson. The next revisit over Ukraine will be in September 7 or so based on the sun synchronous orbit and number of satellites. Well, before September 7, Ukrainian forces launched an offensive in Kharkov that Russian forces were blind towards. If Russia had more satellites or bought more imagery, they would've seen it and changed the strategy. That's what strategic recon does for you.

Drones and aircraft can't see that far behind enemy lines. They don't give you enough information to make high level strategic decisions.

as for whether Russia is learning from Saudi mistakes, that is still not an answered question. We don't know if they are or not. Saudi got a critical refinery hit, Russia got a critical bridge hit.

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kokole said:

Comment by Rybar, automatic translation:

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kokole said:

Allegedly this is the truck in question, packed with explosives. Very weak border control, the official just took one look and the cargo inspection was over.

According to Russian media, the truck probably left from Krasnodar.

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Overbom said:

Ok. I rewatched the video and I am now leaning towards that the explosion was indeed from a truck
Notice at 0:02, the explosion comes directly from the truck. However I still can't explain how the road surface was not heavily damaged, directional explosion?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578662499804930055

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kokole said:

In my opinion, China is unwilling and refuses to help Russia in any military way.

Everyone is aware, especially Russia, that China will not help Russia militarily, because China was repeatedly threatened by the US with secondary sanctions.

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Overbom said:

Is there any particular reason why Russia doesn't simply buy sat imagery from China?

In case of bad PR, they could always say that China is providing non-military imagery about the topography of the Russian held areas to try to find damaged infrastructure or whatever else bs they can come up with

Or maybe China doesn't want to involve in this mess at all (which is possible)

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