The War in the Ukraine

weig2000 · May 12, 2022

Abominable said:
He's arguing two main things. One the first is the standard "Ukraine is winning" we hear from NATO bots. That doesn't bother me. He isn't a military analyst and no doubt the bombardment of NATO propaganda we are all subjected to has influenced some people.

The second the geopolitical aspect and fallout of this war. He's concerned about the fallout this war will have "international community" (there's that term).

On the first point. Even if we fully cede to the NATO position and Russia really is losing. So what? Russia will just draw on more of its military to win. Putin has already said this is an existential war for Russia, and you know what that means. What is his point when he brings this up? If Russia conquered the Ukraine in a week, would that change his position? Russia would just be as isolated as it is now if the whole country fell like Crimea did in 2014.

On the second point he's trying to make. Again, he lists the economic and political sanctions that have been imposed by the west on Russia, as if the same could apply to China. Has he been living in a cave the past 4 years? What was his views on Trump's trade war that Biden was happy to continue? As I've said before, everything that was applied to Russia was planned for China.

He's fully swallowed the NATO narrative. He thinks that Russian cities are now revolting against Putin's oppressive regime, Russians are fleeing the country in their millions. I'm surprised he doesn't claim the rouble is at 200 to the dollar.

On that couldn't be further from the truth, and was the biggest surprise for me. I expected economic sanctions to be very harsh on Russia and for there to be a significant drop in quality of living. I thought Russia would have to turn into a mini Belarus.

Instead, life in Russia is pretty normal. Things cost may cost more, but the essentials are still cheap. Most of the economic damage has been done to the west. Politically, instead of turning against the cause most Russians have rallied towards it. People are independently crowdfunding drones, thermal cameras and other equipment for their soldiers.

Instead of worrying about western sanctions on China he should be asking, if the west can't harm Russia with their sanctions how are they going to hurt China?

I wasn't discussing the content or the view expressed in that article, genuine or forgery. I was challenging the claim that the article/speech was a forgery. I felt that some people try to discredit the view by suggesting it's a forgery.

As for the views expressed in both articles/speeches, I think they're more influenced by the prevailing western medium or narrative, throwing in their own biases, for whatever reasons. There are some truth in them, but ultimately they're neither complete nor balanced. I think there is also some level of uncomfort amongst some Chinese with regards to the view expressed by a former ambassador to Ukraine because it deviates from China's official stand as well as the implications for the perceived national interest of China. It's understandable, but still accusing it to be forgery is bit too far.

gelgoog · May 12, 2022

gadgetcool5 said:
The Ukrainians have reportedly crossed to the east of the Severy Donets on the Kharkov front, according to Southfront. Southfront is admitting that this Vovchansk is already within artillery range and UFA are getting closer every day. The RF are barely fighting, just running away. Once Vovchansk has been blown to smithereens, the RF grouping at Izyum will he cut off, and the entire Donbass Russian attack collapses.

IMO this is a pretty good sign Putin is throwing in the towel soon. He has realized the whole thing was a huge mistake and his only chance depends on crawling back to the West to beg for mercy/forgiveness.

I heard the same thing last month. Except it was Kherson which was supposedly being overran by the Ukrainian Army. Then the Russians pushed back.

sequ said:
If this doesn't look like winning then I don't know what:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524742861828370433
But of course, this could all be fake photoshopped propaganda...

Like I said, not so surprisingly these are ALL vehicles which Ukraine also operates and are in Soviet style paint scheme. What makes you assume so reliably that this is the Russian army? Not the first time Ukrainians say a wreck is Russian when it is Ukrainian. Like Mr. Ukrainian Cannibal.

Yommie said:
Tu-95MS cruise missile carrier spotted over Ukraine

It says a lot that Russia considers it safe enough to send those slow lumbering beasts over Ukrainian airspace.

FairAndUnbiased said:
Even in Kherson and Zhaphorizhzhia Oblasts, there are no popular uprisings, showing that even without direct historical experience of Russian aid, people don't care enough to rise up.

Poorest country in Europe. Among the highest scoring countries in the world where corruption is concerned. So why should those people revolt. Really? Maybe dissatisfied comprador regime sellouts in Central and Western Ukraine would protest more actively. But these people are farmers or workers with little reason to bother.

FairAndUnbiased · May 12, 2022

gelgoog said:
I heard the same thing last month. Except it was Kherson which was supposedly being overran by the Ukrainian Army. Then the Russians pushed back.

Like I said, not so surprisingly these are ALL vehicles which Ukraine also operates and are in Soviet style paint scheme. What makes you assume so reliably that this is the Russian army? Not the first time Ukrainians say a wreck is Russian when it is Ukrainian. Like Mr. Ukrainian Cannibal.

It says a lot that Russia considers it safe enough to send those slow lumbering beasts over Ukrainian airspace.

Poorest country in Europe. Among the highest scoring countries in the world where corruption is concerned. So why should those people revolt. Really? Maybe dissatisfied comprador regime sellouts in Central and Western Ukraine would protest more actively. But these people are farmers or workers with little reason to bother.

But the narrative is of brave heroic democratic Ukrainians fighting to the last breath against evil Russian fascists. Are you telling me that Ukrainians just want to get on with life and that new boss might actually be slightly better than old boss?

Are you telling me that Russia isn't Nazi Germany or Imperial Japan 2.0?

pmc · May 12, 2022

taxiya said:
Both USSR's and US's tactics rely on superior numbers to overwhelm the opponents. Either by tanks and ancillaries in case of USSR or cruise missiles and air raids in case of USA. The great competent of USSR or great show of USA are based on one thing only, fire power, which is just another word for great industrial capacity.

do you realize that USSR didnot had more than 120K soldiers in Afghanistan at a time and much smaller airpower.
so i am not sure from where this superior numbers comes from.
I dont think USA has used this much cruise missiles and airpower sorties in a conflict in compress time period.
if we take what Pentagon is publishing sortie numbers now of 200~ 300 to what Russia achieved with single runway at peak (not the current dual runway) at time in Syria. Ruaf can easily manage 1500 to 2000 sorties in a day.
in Syria they had 4 Su-30SM a time. 8 Su-25 at a time.
here they have close 200 SU-30SM between Ruaf/ RuaN. and than add another 24 MIG-29KR.
than add hundreds of Su-25SM that can maintain very sortie rates. i will not add UCAVs quantity as they are too light.

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MiG-29K fighters of the Northern Fleet flew to Crimea for training at the ground aviation complex

https://www.reddit.com/r/MilitaryPorn/comments/4tqfrc

taxiya · May 12, 2022

james smith esq said:
But, shouldn’t Generals, or war-planners, understand their logistical limitations and plan within them? In this instance, the Russians seem not to have done so! Many of my criticisms of Russia’s performance, earlier in the campaign, were met with (erroneous) rebuttals of my ignorance of USSR grand maneuver strategy. Well, those rebuttals also relied upon expectations of Russia’s ability to accomplish the USSR’s capabilities. And, those grand maneuvers never did come to pass (unless one considers the large scale withdrawals from failed objectives as grand maneuver).

What many of us have expected, but none have seen, is any competently executed combined arms operation on any but the smallest scale of operations. I’d think, even at Russia’s current level of industrial capacity, that this isn’t an unrealistic expectation. However, the Russians may yet prove this expectation as being erroneous, as well!

The bold texts are themselves another assumption (of a war with clear and measurable goal). But is't right? Military action is just extension of politics and another one of many political means to achieve political goals. To me the only goal in Russia's mind which is certain is to keep Ukraine as a buffer like China keeping Korea from falling to full US control or Vietnam fully falling to USSR. That kind of goal does not necessarily demand a clean victory. Korean war ended in a cease fire and technically can resume any time. Vietnam and China kept fighting at the border more than ten years after 1978's war. Why then do people expect that Russia would expect or could finish the matter with a clean cut victory in any sort? If that is clear to the Russian leadership and is their expectation and intension, why should people here expect anything else? This is why I said "people should not project their own unrealistic exceptions on others".

Another way to express my view. Achieving a quick and clean victory in early stage as many people here expected, is great for Russia. And Russian leaders will certainly not reject it. But is the Russian leaders really expect this as the only outcome without doubt and without preparing for a less rosy but more realistic outcome? If it is the last, I don't see any major error in decision making. Put it simply, I prepare for long but would be happy for the short and glory, no matter what. From a strategic point, pure military performance is just academics and irrelevant to the end goal which is determined by industrial capability and will.

taxiya · May 12, 2022

pmc said:
do you realize that USSR didnot had more than 120K soldiers in Afghanistan at a time and much smaller airpower.
so i am not sure from where this superior numbers comes from.
I dont think USA has used this much cruise missiles and airpower sorties in a conflict in compress time period.
if we take what Pentagon is publishing sortie numbers now of 200~ 300 to what Russia achieved with single runway at peak (not the current dual runway) at time in Syria. Ruaf can easily manage 1500 to 2000 sorties in a day.
in Syria they had 4 Su-30SM a time. 8 Su-25 at a time.
here they have close 200 SU-30SM between Ruaf/ RuaN. and than add another 24 MIG-29KR.
than add hundreds of Su-25SM that can maintain very sortie rates. i will not add UCAVs quantity as they are too light.

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MiG-29K fighters of the Northern Fleet flew to Crimea for training at the ground aviation complex
https://www.reddit.com/r/MilitaryPorn/comments/4tqfrc

Did I talk about Afghanistan? I am talking about USSR and USA on a national level, not a theatre. You need to vastly improve your skill of comprehension and capability to make your thought relevant.

pmc · May 12, 2022

taxiya said:
Did I talk about Afghanistan? You need to vastly improve your skill of comprehension and capability to make your thought relevant.

this only relevant example of similar size country and population. any other example will enlarge area of operation.

taxiya · May 12, 2022

pmc said:
this only relevant example of similar size country and population. any other example will enlarge area of operation.

A better answer, neither USSR nor US' massive fire power doctrine works in Afghanistan's mountainous terrain. It is proven. On the other hand Ukrainian plain is perfect place for these kind of doctrines if the resource is available. So I don't think Afghan war is relevant example.

pmc · May 12, 2022

taxiya said:
Once again read my original post and improve your comprehension. I was talking about the doctrine of USSR which is a national and strategic matter disconnected to a specific conflict (Ukraine war). Therefor, your bringing in Afghan war which itself is relevant to Ukraine war, BUT is irrelevant to my post.

where is USSR used more fire power in this size of area? . there is no such doctorine exist when you look at area wise. It is totally different when spreading forces all the way to East Germany and add all the logistic manpower that need to be closer.
here logistics manpower cannot be quantified as no one knows how many airbases are simultaneously used for air operations and there supply chains.

taxiya · May 12, 2022

pmc said:
where is USSR used more fire power in this size of area? . there is no such doctorine exist when you look at area wise. It is totally different when spreading forces all the way to East Germany and add all the logistic manpower that need to be closer.
here logistics manpower cannot be quantified as no one knows how many airbases are simultaneously used for air operations and there supply chains.

No USSR didn't, nor did I say USSR did, so why do you ask? What are you smoking or drinking?

The War in the Ukraine

weig2000

Captain

gelgoog

Lieutenant General

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier

pmc

Major

MiG-29K fighters of the Northern Fleet flew to Crimea for training at the ground aviation complex

taxiya

Brigadier

taxiya

Brigadier

MiG-29K fighters of the Northern Fleet flew to Crimea for training at the ground aviation complex

pmc

Major

taxiya

Brigadier

pmc

Major

taxiya

Brigadier

The War in the Ukraine

Captain

Lieutenant General

Brigadier

Major

MiG-29K fighters of the Northern Fleet flew to Crimea for training at the ground aviation complex​

Brigadier

Brigadier

MiG-29K fighters of the Northern Fleet flew to Crimea for training at the ground aviation complex​

Major

Brigadier

Major

Brigadier

MiG-29K fighters of the Northern Fleet flew to Crimea for training at the ground aviation complex

MiG-29K fighters of the Northern Fleet flew to Crimea for training at the ground aviation complex