The War in the Ukraine

ficker22

Senior Member
Registered Member
It appears the Chechens are the most combat effective units in the Ukrainian civil war on both sides. Chechens are deeply religious and scare the bejezus out of Ukrainian soldiers the same way Islamist rebels scare the bejezus out of Syrian soldiers.
What is it that make them such combat afficianados?

Is it like Jihad style fanatism for chechnia or just their experience from the two wars in the 90's?
Even in Kherson and Zhaphorizhzhia Oblasts, there are no popular uprisings, showing that even without direct historical experience of Russian aid, people don't care enough to rise up.
Why should they? Live is good as long as you have it. No need to die for slava Nato.
 

weig2000

Captain
The article is a forgery, it was written by Fudan scholar Feng Yujun, here is the
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of Feng Yujun, this is
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, it was posted on WeChat on April 21. Clearly this is a false flag operation in Chinese public opinion.

Why are you saying it's a forgery? The two articles hold similar pessimistic opinions on Russia's invasion of Ukraine to be sure, but they certainly read as two different pieces. They're supposedly two separate speeches by two different speakers at the same video conference on Russia-Ukraine conflict and its impact.

Can you provide any evidence to back up your claim? Just because someone doesn't agree with the view expressed does not make it a forgery. In fact, I think there are quite some people in China holding similar views, like it or not.
 

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
Isn't it a bit to late for this?. I'm not sure if it is a comment for propaganda purposes or it shows there is a disconect between the PR/High Command and the reality on the ground.

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Seems Russia is confident enough of their control over Snake Island they have towed and docked a floating crane there and replenished the air defense systems.

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taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
Russia's own PMC, Wagner are saying this helicopter was Russian not Ukrainian and those were special forces. And that the enemy destroyed the Mi-8.

The incompetence of the Russians have surprised me. The only group making gains for them are the SOF Spetsnaz, DPR militia men (this group did a lot in Mariupol), the Chechens, and recently the Wagner PMC. I don't see much from others; maybe they don't post enough about their success. Russian marines were also doing lots of fighting in Mariupol and are probably the ones storming the last stronghold in that city.

I can't tell what the Russian army is doing. They are involve but not to a great extent. Russian National Guards just come in and take control once an area has been captured. But so far I see them located in major cities with the bulk in Kherson.

The front line fighting are done in small groups BTGs after artillery and air strikes and this tactic is not effective as it is leaving the rears in Kharkiv and Izyum exposed to Ukraine counter which are happening now.

This is ineptitude is so ridiculous that I'm lost in how to process this. Everything I learned about Soviet doctrine and subsequent Russia's doctrine have been proving wrong. Russia's corruption is so deed that they can't get this done right. PLA needs to take heavy notes and realize this is not how to fight a major fight if any lessons are to be taken from this war. US showed the world how it is done numerous times in the 1990s and 2000s and yet Russia can't remotely replicate it.

For now everything points to lack of troops. Their tactics are not entirely bad. They just need more commitment. Otherwise they will suffer unnecessary casualties.
I don't get all your "rage, anger and criticisms" of today's Russian military performance. You compared Russia with the USSR's doctrine and US' performance in 1990s and 2000s and called on PLA to take notes.

But do you realize the massive difference between today's Russia and USSR? Both USSR's and US's tactics rely on superior numbers to overwhelm the opponents. Either by tanks and ancillaries in case of USSR or cruise missiles and air raids in case of USA. The great competent of USSR or great show of USA are based on one thing only, fire power, which is just another word for great industrial capacity.

Today's Russia is far from being an industrial great power. Expecting Russia to do what you expect is disconnected from reality, and unfair to Russia. The bottom line is that the "under-performance" of Russia is NOT that they don't know what they are doing, but rather they can not afford to do what they would have wanted to do.

One should not project one's own unrealistic expectation on someone, then blame that someone to not meeting the expectation.

Regarding PLA, there is no need to worry. PLA wants the best of both the Red Army and US Army. And most importantly, as I said above it is not about knowing or wanting the best but really about being able to afford it. The answer is PLA can.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
Why are you saying it's a forgery? The two articles hold similar pessimistic opinions on Russia's invasion of Ukraine to be sure, but they certainly read as two different pieces. They're supposedly two separate speeches by two different speakers at the same video conference on Russia-Ukraine conflict and its impact.

Can you provide any evidence to back up your claim? Just because someone doesn't agree with the view expressed does not make it a forgery. In fact, I think there are quite some people in China holding similar views, like it or not.
He's arguing two main things. One the first is the standard "Ukraine is winning" we hear from NATO bots. That doesn't bother me. He isn't a military analyst and no doubt the bombardment of NATO propaganda we are all subjected to has influenced some people.

The second the geopolitical aspect and fallout of this war. He's concerned about the fallout this war will have "international community" (there's that term).

On the first point. Even if we fully cede to the NATO position and Russia really is losing. So what? Russia will just draw on more of its military to win. Putin has already said this is an existential war for Russia, and you know what that means. What is his point when he brings this up? If Russia conquered the Ukraine in a week, would that change his position? Russia would just be as isolated as it is now if the whole country fell like Crimea did in 2014.

On the second point he's trying to make. Again, he lists the economic and political sanctions that have been imposed by the west on Russia, as if the same could apply to China. Has he been living in a cave the past 4 years? What was his views on Trump's trade war that Biden was happy to continue? As I've said before, everything that was applied to Russia was planned for China.

He's fully swallowed the NATO narrative. He thinks that Russian cities are now revolting against Putin's oppressive regime, Russians are fleeing the country in their millions. I'm surprised he doesn't claim the rouble is at 200 to the dollar.

On that couldn't be further from the truth, and was the biggest surprise for me. I expected economic sanctions to be very harsh on Russia and for there to be a significant drop in quality of living. I thought Russia would have to turn into a mini Belarus.

Instead, life in Russia is pretty normal. Things cost may cost more, but the essentials are still cheap. Most of the economic damage has been done to the west. Politically, instead of turning against the cause most Russians have rallied towards it. People are independently crowdfunding drones, thermal cameras and other equipment for their soldiers.

Instead of worrying about western sanctions on China he should be asking, if the west can't harm Russia with their sanctions how are they going to hurt China?
 

james smith esq

Senior Member
Registered Member
I don't get all your "rage, anger and criticisms" of today's Russian military performance. You compared Russia with the USSR's doctrine and US' performance in 1990s and 2000s and called on PLA to take notes.

But do you realize the massive difference between today's Russia and USSR? Both USSR's and US's tactics rely on superior numbers to overwhelm the opponents. Either by tanks and ancillaries in case of USSR or cruise missiles and air raids in case of USA. The great competent of USSR or great show of USA are based on one thing only, fire power, which is just another word for great industrial capacity.

Today's Russia is far from being an industrial great power. Expecting Russia to do what you expect is disconnected from reality, and unfair to Russia. The bottom line is that the "under-performance" of Russia is NOT that they don't know what they are doing, but rather they can not afford to do what they would have wanted to do.

One should not project one's own unrealistic expectation on someone, then blame that someone to not meeting the expectation.

Regarding PLA, there is no need to worry. PLA wants the best of both the Red Army and US Army. And most importantly, as I said above it is not about knowing or wanting the best but really about being able to afford it. The answer is PLA can.
But, shouldn’t Generals, or war-planners, understand their logistical limitations and plan within them? In this instance, the Russians seem not to have done so! Many of my criticisms of Russia’s performance, earlier in the campaign, were met with (erroneous) rebuttals of my ignorance of USSR grand maneuver strategy. Well, those rebuttals also relied upon expectations of Russia’s ability to accomplish the USSR’s capabilities. And, those grand maneuvers never did come to pass (unless one considers the large scale withdrawals from failed objectives as grand maneuver).

What many of us have expected, but none have seen, is any competently executed combined arms operation on any but the smallest scale of operations. I’d think, even at Russia’s current level of industrial capacity, that this isn’t an unrealistic expectation. However, the Russians may yet prove this expectation as being erroneous, as well!
 
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Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
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Apparently Ukraine has reached the border to Russia. Not sure what Russia end goal is in that region
They will up the game big time if Ukraine cross the border. It's a bit funny to say after Russia got into Ukraine first but it could be the trigger for enlarging Russian reinforcements, declaring a ''war'' and toss aside ''special operation''.
 
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