The War in the Ukraine

Can Russia realistically win this war without gaining control of the sky. Without air superiority, it turns into a slugfest of your move my move with heavy losses for both sides.

Ukraine population is 43 million. So it has plenty of man power. And It gets plenty of weapons from NATO. How fast can they recruit and train up fresh troops.

Petrolicious88 said:

Can Russia realistically win this war without gaining control of the sky. Without air superiority, it turns into a slugfest of your move my move with heavy losses for both sides.

Ukraine population is 43 million. So it has plenty of man power. And It gets plenty of weapons from NATO. How fast can they recruit and train up fresh troops.

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Basically no. Also the amount of regained ground since the counter-offensives is anything but a slugfest.

Phead128 said:

I can confirm this is surely not a 'pro-Ukrainian' telegram channel, over a dozen posts are shitting on Ukraine and are pro-Russia in nature, esp. the one saying entire Ukrainian population would prefer to evacuate Ukraine to avoid mobilization...

@kokole this is your first warning to not mischaracterize your telegram sources.

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I accept the remark!

But I stand by my point that not all Ukrainians are burning with desire for ongoing war or to be mobilized. These Ukrainians are not pro-Russia, but they are critical of the Ukrainian regime. It is naive to believe that all Ukrainians are burning out of a desire for the war to continue or to be mobilized.

I was in my country, Bulgaria, over the summer and met many Ukrainian men who had managed to escape mobilisation in Ukraine through corrupt practices of the border authorities. The borders in Ukraine have been closed since the beginning of the war to all Ukrainian men aged between 18-60.

All these Ukrainians told me the same thing "I am not crazy to die for the interests of the corrupt Kiev elite and US interests". All these Ukrainian men were planning to stay in Bulgaria until the end of the war. I asked them how many like them were in Bulgaria, they replied "we are many". If you have savings, you can pay corrupt officials at the border and leave Ukraine. They weren't even registered as refugees in Bulgaria, they were living illegally because they feared Zelensky would ask Bulgaria to deport all Ukrainian men subject to mobilization.

tankphobia said:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/xt8yao
This is from yesterday, seems like battalion sized armored elements are being committed by Ukraine in the current thrust. Spotted by UAV so there might be some losses here.

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Looks like Ukraine still has plenty of armored vehicles to spare. They also don't seem to be afraid of airstrikes. Either they're suicidal charging or Russian airpower presence is minimal. The vehicles were all lined up nicely but the artillery accuracy and intensity is too low, looks like most of them got away.

Pmichael said:

Basically no. Also the amount of regained ground since the counter-offensives is anything but a slugfest.

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Fighting for few kilometers and singular villages and towns with the line of control going back and forth multiple time over multiple weeks is the definition of a slugfest. Neither side is doing any blitzkrieg. I would actually be quite concerned if I was Ukraine right now. If Russia is defending like this with the limit manpower they have right now (around 50,000-150,000 depending on various sources), what is going to happen when that manpower gets more than tripled by and additional 300,000 troops recently mobilized? Sure they might be green and not well suited for offensive task, but as seen by poor trained militas Ukraine used as part of their territorial defense, you don't need the high end troops to hold areas and defend.

So the Ukrainians on the outskirts of Beryslav,
Is it true or false?

kokole said:

I accept the remark!

But I stand by my point that not all Ukrainians are burning with desire for ongoing war or to be mobilized. These Ukrainians are not pro-Russia, but they are critical of the Ukrainian regime. It is naive to believe that all Ukrainians are burning out of a desire for the war to continue or to be mobilized.

I was in my country, Bulgaria, over the summer and met many Ukrainian men who had managed to escape mobilisation in Ukraine through corrupt practices of the border authorities. The borders in Ukraine have been closed since the beginning of the war to all Ukrainian men aged between 18-60.

All these Ukrainians told me the same thing "I am not crazy to die for the interests of the corrupt Kiev elite and US interests". All these Ukrainian men were planning to stay in Bulgaria until the end of the war. I asked them how many like them were in Bulgaria, they replied "we are many". If you have savings, you can pay corrupt officials at the border and leave Ukraine. They weren't even registered as refugees in Bulgaria, they were living illegally because they feared Zelensky would ask Bulgaria to deport all Ukrainian men subject to mobilization.

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Thank you for a first hand look. Typically, people are not so crazy to die for a country when it isn't existential for the people. To be honest, what does the average Oleg see if Putin takes over some parts of Donbass?

RottenPanzer said:

So the Ukrainians on the outskirts of Beryslav,
Is it true or false?

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Probably false. It sounds like people are over-interpreting the information coming out. The Ukrainians are attacking in that direction if I am not mistaken, not in the outskirts. I'm still waiting on any real confirmation of the breakthrough there, at Kreminna or east of Kupyansk the rumor mill is claiming.

Any or all of them could be transport plane shoot downs we heard at the start of the war.

OTOH, the Kharkov offensive and falls of Izium and Lyman just took place. it could really be the Russian army is exhausted, in terrible shape and cracking.

The reality is we will have to see. Time will tell.

FairAndUnbiased said:

Thank you for a first hand look. Typically, people are not so crazy to die for a country when it isn't existential for the people. To be honest, what does the average Oleg see if Putin takes over some parts of Donbass?

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I hope the folks on this thread know I'm more than a little familiar with Ukraine. The Russophonic family lost everything in Gorlovka in 2014 and now have been evacuated from Poltava. Extended family and friends are all over Ukraine from Odessa to Donetsk. I have been there several times, even to Crimea a few.

Not every Ukrainian man is willing to die fighting the Russians. That's more than apparent. Likewise, not every Russian man is willing to die for this war: take a look at the outflow into Kazakhstan, Georgia, the massive plane ticket cost spike, etc. since the mobilization.

The majority of Ukrainian men are willing to fight and many are willing to die. There is a fury I've harped on running white hot and deep in Ukrainians now. It has not cooled. It has not faded. There is enough to fight this war for years, so long as they have the logistics to support the men in the field. The West is seeing to that.

The vast majority of Ukrainians cannot accept Russia. They cannot accept it anymore than the Americans could accept the secession of the southern states or the Chinese could accept Taiwan's independence.

The idea the Ukrainians are going to break or accept Russian overlordship is hopium at its most extreme.

As for Zelenskyy? The quote attributed to Ledru-Rollins best applies here: "There go the people. I must follow them, for I am their leader."

After the war is done, we will also see if Zelenskyy stays. If Ukraine expels Russia, well, I think the answer is pretty apparent.

Memepons said:

It seems the Russian Army is unable to hold onto the newly declared Russian territory.

What a complete farcical the Russian Armed forces have become. I just worry that with no way out of this war to save face, Putin might resort to nuclear weapons. The ego of a single man had now destroyed the collective future of 100 million people because he was too stuck in the past to realize the world had lost 30 years like the Russians had, they have moved on leaving Russia even further behind.

Hopefully the Russian command can interceded before it comes to nuclear weapons and more death for a dead dream.

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It seems that the annexation has not yet been ratified, so as of right now it's little more than a piece of paper. But it seems Russia will probably ratify it by October 4th. After ratification I won't be surprise if an ultimatum is issued to Ukraine, and the war will kick up massively. You need to be wondering where did all those Russian equipment and troops we saw in all those telegram and twitter posts end up. Once ratified those new territories would be full on Russian territory under Russian law and Putin would have all the legal authorities he needs to defend them with everything Russia got. If Russia is willing to ratify it, it would mean they are fully committed to defending its new oblasts as failing to do so would destroy Russian credibility and territorial security, and might even endanger western perception on how willing Russia would defend Crimea or any other part of Russia. The SMO is very likely to become elevated to full on war or at least an anti-terrorist operation if Ukraine refuses the ultimatum after the ratification of the annexation.