The War in the Ukraine

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
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It seems that the annexation has not yet been ratified, so as of right now it's little more than a piece of paper. But it seems Russia will probably ratify it by October 4th.

I have heard of a similar date. The State Duma and the Federation Council have to officially approve (I think there is 1 more but idk). It’s just a matter of when they will do it at the moment.
 

Petrolicious88

Senior Member
Registered Member
—Putin thought he could take Ukraine Crimea style. Now he’s got himself and Russia in a world of hurt. He’s stuck between full mobilization or going mad dog nuclear. He’s trapped…..and this is his last stand.

—Without air superiority or gaining control of Ukrainian air space, Russia will continue to sustain heavy losses.

—Instead of ground troops doing mop up work after a successful air campaign, Russian troops are forced to grind it out on the ground. And this may prove fatal to Russia for this entire war.
And if tactical nukes are used, US has stated unambiguously that it will work with NATO, a collective effort, to completely destroy every Russian troop they can identify in Ukraine and its entire Black Sea fleet.

—Russia has failed to conduct both SEAD and DEAD missions. Leaving it’s pilots and troops exposed. It doesn’t have the training, the tactics, and equipment to do either on scale. And no amount of mobilization is going to fix that in the short term.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
I hope the folks on this thread know I'm more than a little familiar with Ukraine. The Russophonic family lost everything in Gorlovka in 2014 and now have been evacuated from Poltava. Extended family and friends are all over Ukraine from Odessa to Donetsk. I have been there several times, even to Crimea a few.

Not every Ukrainian man is willing to die fighting the Russians. That's more than apparent. Likewise, not every Russian man is willing to die for this war: take a look at the outflow into Kazakhstan, Georgia, the massive plane ticket cost spike, etc. since the mobilization.

The majority of Ukrainian men are willing to fight and many are willing to die. There is a fury I've harped on running white hot and deep in Ukrainians now. It has not cooled. It has not faded. There is enough to fight this war for years, so long as they have the logistics to support the men in the field. The West is seeing to that.

The vast majority of Ukrainians cannot accept Russia. They cannot accept it anymore than the Americans could accept the secession of the southern states or the Chinese could accept Taiwan's independence.

The idea the Ukrainians are going to break or accept Russian overlordship is hopium at its most extreme.

As for Zelenskyy? The quote attributed to Ledru-Rollins best applies here: "There go the people. I must follow them, for I am their leader."

After the war is done, we will also see if Zelenskyy stays. If Ukraine expels Russia, well, I think the answer is pretty apparent.
It truly confuses me because to an outsider it looks like Ukrainians are just fighting for the regime and their regime has let them down literally every day since 1991. if their regime did not let them down, then how come Ukraine's population has declined by over 10 million even pre-war from 50 million to 40 million, and now declined during the war by another 10 million including 2 million fleeing to Russia proper?

I just don't see Zelensky as being significantly different than Saddam Hussein, another third world 'president' who took power in a military coup. Iraqis didn't want to fight for Saddam Hussein after just a few years of being pounded by Iran, and these are supposed to be the famous fanatical Arab warriors. Ukraine being a secular European society just doesn't strike me as the type that can stand without cracking for long.
 

Intrepid

Major
if their regime did not let them down, then how come Ukraine's population has declined by over 10 million even pre-war from 50 million to 40 million, and now declined during the war by another 10 million including 2 million fleeing to Russia proper?
The families have divided. Women and children were taken to safety and the men stayed in the country to fight. This explains the 40 million population, of which 10 million remain outside the country and hope to return to a liberated Ukraine soon. Ukrainian families were also housed in our village, and the children now go to school here. In Ukraine there might not be any schooling for them at the moment.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
The families have divided. Women and children were taken to safety and the men stayed in the country to fight. This explains the 40 million population, of which 10 million remain outside the country and hope to return to a liberated Ukraine soon. Ukrainian families were also housed in our village, and the children now go to school here. In Ukraine there might not be any schooling for them at the moment.
you mean the few children from 1.6 fertility rate? women that might just never come back? who the hell goes back to a country with 3k GDP per capita in peacetime, never mind war, when they're physically in a country with 30k GDP per capita?
 

xypher

Senior Member
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It seems that the annexation has not yet been ratified, so as of right now it's little more than a piece of paper. But it seems Russia will probably ratify it by October 4th. After ratification I won't be surprise if an ultimatum is issued to Ukraine, and the war will kick up massively. You need to be wondering where did all those Russian equipment and troops we saw in all those telegram and twitter posts end up. Once ratified those new territories would be full on Russian territory under Russian law and Putin would have all the legal authorities he needs to defend them with everything Russia got. If Russia is willing to ratify it, it would mean they are fully committed to defending its new oblasts as failing to do so would destroy Russian credibility and territorial security, and might even endanger western perception on how willing Russia would defend Crimea or any other part of Russia. The SMO is very likely to become elevated to full on war or at least an anti-terrorist operation if Ukraine refuses the ultimatum after the ratification of the annexation.
They can already use whatever they want, anti-terrorist operation is a lower tier than special military operation. The latter has less limitations on the type and quantity of military equipment used. So the only avenue for further escalation is war declaration, imposition of wartime laws (restrictions on citizen movement, war economy and taxes, etc.) and full mobilization. Needless to say that if Putin is unable to quickly win after doing that, he is finished, so we will see whether he is ready or he again goes with "partial" stuff & imposes wartime laws only in the border regions, while postponing further mobilization to mid-October/early-November.

@anzha agreed, my observations highly align with yours.
 

Pmichael

Junior Member
Fighting for few kilometers and singular villages and towns with the line of control going back and forth multiple time over multiple weeks is the definition of a slugfest. Neither side is doing any blitzkrieg. I would actually be quite concerned if I was Ukraine right now. If Russia is defending like this with the limit manpower they have right now (around 50,000-150,000 depending on various sources), what is going to happen when that manpower gets more than tripled by and additional 300,000 troops recently mobilized? Sure they might be green and not well suited for offensive task, but as seen by poor trained militas Ukraine used as part of their territorial defense, you don't need the high end troops to hold areas and defend.

I am not sure what's your source of information is but Ukraine is steadily gaining control over new areas quite massively at times. But it's not 'Blitzkrieg' is some weird coop out though.
 
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