The War in the Ukraine

phrozenflame

Junior Member
Registered Member
Russia isn't planning on using nukes in the Ukraine. If they were, why bother with the mobilisation?
They weren't planning on mobilization also until 2 days ago. We're climbing up the escalation ladder, and there is no de-escalation path for Putin if mobilization fails.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member

foxmulder

Junior Member
we won't see the effects of mobilization for at least another two months, given that it takes time to train and equip these reservists.

what i am interested in is what plan did the military present to putin as to how they want to employ the newly mobilized force.

We dont know. Maybe they started 2 months ago... small possibility but might be the case behind the scenes.
 

reservior dogs

Junior Member
Registered Member
Interesting analysis of the current strategic situation in Ukraine by Lt. Gen Ben Hodges.

Some interesting tidbits: Ukraine has at least 700,000 (!) men in uniform. They are getting trained in UK, Germany and Poland and have ample capacity to recruit 100,000s more.
The issues are

1. Trained and motivated men are depleting and forever gone. You can find as many people as you like, but without training and leadership(NCO), it will not be effective as a combat force.
Russian Iskander is 70% built by imported components and will be difficult to replenish.
Russia started this war, do you think that they will not already stockpile 10 years worth of components before the war starts?
He believes Ukraine has a good chance of rolling back Russia to the Feb 23 borders by the end of the year.
Winter is coming, with it will come mechanized warfare. How many tanks does Ukraine have today?
Furthermore, he believes it is extremely unlikely that Russia would use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. The main argument for that claim is that costs for Russia would far outweigh the “benefits”. The US could nit afford to stand by and not get involved at that point. For example, the Russian naval base in Syria may be destroyed, or the Russian fleet in the Black Sea sunk or even the Russian forces within Ukraine degraded by F-35 strikes.
I do agree that tactical nukes are unlikely unless other countries are involved more overtly. For example, if Poland sent in large number of troops well equipped and was making a difference in the battlefield, then these Polish troops could get nuked in the Ukraine battlefield. The U.S. will not get involved. We are only worry about ourselves. Why would we get directly into a fight with a nuclear power that can reach out and touch NYC?
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
I wonder what is the source for that claim. If there is one area Russia is probably quite self-reliant, its gotta be rocketry
Probably this report.

SILICON LIFELINE : WESTERN ELECTRONICS AT THE HEART OF RUSSIA’S WAR MACHINE
JAMES BYRNE, GARY SOMERVILLE, JOE BYRNE, JACK WATLING, NICK REYNOLDS AND JANE BAKER
AUGUST 2022

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Most of these components are really common to be honest. And if you put together all the purchases of ICs they are probably just a couple million USD in IC sales. This publication is also kind of sparse on analysis of Russian ICs, in fact it is quite amateurish. And it talks about use of US Texas Instruments DSPs. But Russia has had its own DSPs since like the late 1990s like ELVEES Multicore with Elcore DSP. Or the NeuroMatrix DSP family.
 
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sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
Probably this report.

SILICON LIFELINE : WESTERN ELECTRONICS AT THE HEART OF RUSSIA’S WAR MACHINE
JAMES BYRNE, GARY SOMERVILLE, JOE BYRNE, JACK WATLING, NICK REYNOLDS AND JANE BAKER
AUGUST 2022

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Most of these components are really common to be honest. And if you put together all the purchases of ICs they are probably just a couple million USD in IC sales. This publication is also kind of sparse on analysis of Russian ICs, in fact it is quite amateurish. And it talks about use of things Texas Instruments DSPs. But Russia has had its own DSPs since like the late 1990s like ELVEES Multicore with Elcore DSP. Or the NeuroMatrix DSP family.

Interesting yet amusing report, because either way it actually makes them look a bit stupid.

On one end, they could be extrapolating based on equipment built before the 2014 sanctions which is almost 10 years ago and they could have replaced them already. On the other hand, if they are recently built equipment, then that means the sanctions have been largely ineffective and they still can source them.

After all, the company might be based in Timbuktu, but its probably made in China or with an easy to source Chinese analog, so that report ends up coming off mostly as western cope. I mean, Gigabit Ethernet controllers? Oooh advanced western tech

Edit: So two components of the Iskander guidance have western chips in it, which somehow translates into 70% of the missile being foreing-built?. K.
 
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Atomicfrog

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