The War in the Ukraine

Atomicfrog

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The US Air Force failed to achieve full integration of AGM-88 HARM missiles with Ukrainian MiG-29s​

21.09.2022

On August 30, 2022, the Ukrainian Air Force published a propaganda video demonstrating the use of American aviation anti-radar missiles AGM-88 HARM from Ukrainian MiG-29 fighters. Video from the cockpit of the MiG-29 of the Ukrainian Air Force showed the combat launch of two HARM missiles. The United States for the first time officially recognized the supply of HARM missiles to Ukraine on August 8, the first batch of these missiles, apparently, was tacitly delivered to the Ukrainian side earlier.

The publication Breaking Defense reported that military contractors told it only took a couple of months to equip Soviet MiG-29 and Su-27 fighters of the Ukrainian Air Force with American-made AGM-88 missiles. This report was made by the head of the US Air Force in Europe, General James Hecker.

According to him, it was quite difficult, and contractors had to invent a special adapter to suspend the missile from the pylon under the MiG-29 wing. At the same time, it was not possible to achieve full integration of the missile with the systems of the fighter, and the resulting aviation complex does not have all the capabilities that the F-16 aircraft equipped with AGM-88 missiles has.

In mid-September-2022, an informed source told RIA Novosti that HARM missiles showed zero efficiency in Ukraine, most of them were shot down in the air, others were suppressed or disabled by means of electronic protection of air defense systems, individual missiles either failed or seriously missed their target.

He noted that the low efficiency of HARM missiles is associated, firstly, with their mediocre maximum speed, which is a little over 600 meters per second, and a large effective scattering area. Intercepting and destroying air targets with such parameters is not a problem for modern Russian air defense systems. And in order to avoid the destruction of launch aircraft, Ukrainian aviation uses these missiles from a long range, and this allows defenders to detect missiles long before they approach the area where Russian air defense systems are located.

At the same time, the source added that HARMs create certain difficulties in time-coordinated combined strikes, because air defense systems automatically retarget them as a priority threat.

“However, Ukrainian troops have not yet been able to hit a single radar of the Russian air defense system, a single illumination and guidance radar in the area of the special military operation with HARM missiles,” the source emphasized and specified that before the Russian military encountered HARM missiles in practice as part of a special operation, they were evaluated as an effective and dangerous means of combating air defense.
At least they tried but putting their remaining air asset in the air to shot some sam is risky too, the new bigger switchblade could be better at this than the haywire fitting of agm-88.
 

Atomicfrog

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Alright get your predictions in for this winter.

With up to 500,000 troops, what would you do? Me I will go for Kiev Offensive 2.0 from Belarus direction. Back at the start of the year they weren't enough troops from that direction and the crappy road from there during mud season meant supply lines could not support a major offensive. With winter and the ground frozen it may be possible for a decisive attack.
Going west past Odessa and north to Zaporizhzhia would be prime objectives , if they are able to land bridge all the way to Transnistria it would be enough to consolidate and hold ground.

Kiev is a long shot, it look like Belarus have catched some kind of coldfeet, i'm not sure if they will support an offensive with Poland boosting is weaponery and US troops building up slowly there.
 

Overbom

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It would still take time to put them through refresher training before they are ready. Probably need a month?
Probably more. IMO 2 months if they want to have a semi-competent military ability

Yes they are reservists but if Russia wants to maximise their potential then 2 months would be enough. 1 month can work, but with more casualties and less combat ability.
 

Atomicfrog

Major
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Based on official numbers close to 6000 Russians died in this Special Operation. Makes one wonder why Putin needs to mobilize more troops. That are rather moderate numbers.
They just don't have enough to cover ground... they have 200 000, more than half of these are probably just for units logistics. They have 1000 km front, it's 100 active soldiers to cover each km. Even 300 000 more is not a lot. When you rely on small rivers for fortifications it's a sign of not enough boots on the ground.
 

Minm

Junior Member
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Probably more. IMO 2 months if they want to have a semi-competent military ability

Yes they are reservists but if Russia wants to maximise their potential then 2 months would be enough. 1 month can work, but with more casualties and less combat ability.
Can't they be trained in Ukraine as well? As long as they're only fighting in the least risky situations, it might be safe to send them in early
 

Weaasel

Senior Member
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Alright get your predictions in for this winter.

With up to 500,000 troops, what would you do? Me I will go for Kiev Offensive 2.0 from Belarus direction. Back at the start of the year they weren't enough troops from that direction and the crappy road from there during mud season meant supply lines could not support a major offensive. With winter and the ground frozen it may be possible for a decisive attack.
Take control of all Donbass, recapture parts of Kharkov lost, and secure the rest of the lines as they are presently constituted... They do not need 500,000 troops for that... But they certainly needs several tens of thousands of comprehensively equipped personnel to do that...
 

SampanViking

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They just don't have enough to cover ground... they have 200 000, more than half of these are probably just for units logistics. They have 1000 km front, it's 100 active soldiers to cover each km. Even 300 000 more is not a lot. When you rely on small rivers for fortifications it's a sign of not enough boots on the ground.
Beyond that I think.
We have seen time and time again that Russia has the fire power to blow the Ukrainian lines and defense fortifications wide open, but lack the manpower (or at least expendable manpower) to be able to move forward and rapidly and decisively exploit these opening and opportunities. This is why the progress in the Donbas has been so slow and tortuous, as the Russians it seems have largely waited until the Ukrainians have simply given up and retreated, before they are prepared to advance.
Where they have been prepared to pay the price, they have made impressive gains and advances, but they have been the exceptions, rather than the rule.

The Ukrainians have been the opposite, prepared to sacrifice as many men as it took to swarm and overwhelm Russian positions and force they to withdraw.

Clearly its not an untenable long term practice if Russia wants to win the war. It may have helped damage the professional Ukrainian army for relatively light cost, but it does not bring things to a rapid and desired close.
Hopefully, we are now seeing this position re balanced to one which is far more proactive.
 

The Observer

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Personally, I have doubts about whether RU army can effectively absorb the newly mobilized troops. Unless they can quickly and effectively raise a new officer and NCO corps to train, command, and control the mobilized troops, these newly mobilized men would probably be more trouble than they're worth.

Of course, there's another possible scenario: Those who died are mostly the enlisted, officers and NCOs came out mostly unscathed. Then in that case, as long as the newly mobilized troops have effective basic training, RU army can have relatively OK basic cannon fodders. Though RU army performance so far didn't exactly inspire confidence.

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on Twitter explained it better, though he also has a pro-Ukraine view and put his belief in more absolute terms.

 
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