Not enough troops. Ukraine today has over 700,000 men in uniform and the advantage of well prepared defensive lines. The Russians would not faire any better.
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
I think the T-62 thing has been blown out of proportion in the sense people keep talking about them as if they suddenly became the mainstay of Russian forces all along the front when we have barely seen pictures of a couple of them at most. Even Oryx counts 2 losses and a capture. Meanwhile we still see quite a few T-80BV, BVM and U milling around.
Meanwhile Ukraine is going to receive T-55's
I think those 300k extra will be for a part be an accounting trick, once the four ukrainian regions join Russia wouldn't those Donbas soldiers not automatically be added to the Russian mobilisation effort? Given they are then Russian soldiers, they can support those Donbas fighters with better gear.
The total losses is higher than that. It does not include losses from LPR, DPR, Wagner and perhaps the Rosgvardiya.
Perhaps, but it is not exactly inspiring and without a representative sample of what the actual variety of vehicles and materiel Russia is employing, I think at this stage of the conflict it very much is an open question as to how well Russia will be able to equip and employ their new reservists.
Ukraine faces its own many issues of course, but let us not pretend that this war has gone in the way Russia had intended or hoped, or that they had conducted themselves in a manner befitting to pre-conflict expectations. For observers, it means Russia does not deserve substantial benefit of doubt.
You're right that we probably shouldn't trust the Russian government when it says that they'll add a certain number of troops. That doesn't change that the new laws on mobilised troops are now in effect and that reservists will be trained. Maybe they'll only add 100k reservists in the next few months but might ramp that up to 300k in half a year
Russian reserves being called up at this stage are most probably going to be limited to former contract soldiers. I am pretty not all of them are going to be combat soldiers but across the whole spectrum of land force roles. Most likely a mixture of combat soldiers and logistic crews such as mechanics and the like.
One likely immediate effect of the mobilisation will be to hold current soldiers beyond their current contracts.
The US did a similar thing around the surge in Iraq. extending contracts and pulling soldiers who have completed their active duty component off the reserve list back into active duty, The big difference being very few of the Russian reserves have done any the refresher training.
One likely immediate effect of the mobilisation will be to hold current soldiers beyond their current contracts.
The US did a similar thing around the surge in Iraq. extending contracts and pulling soldiers who have completed their active duty component off the reserve list back into active duty, The big difference being very few of the Russian reserves have done any the refresher training.
In the next few weeks, ground offensives in Ukraine for both sides should slow down due to rasputitsa season coming. This should give Russian forces time to train the reserves while Ukrainians will be stockpiling gear.
As I read it, and correct me if I am wrong, this mobilisation is in addition too and not replacing the calls for volunteers and the Wagner Recruiting exercise.
At the very least, you could look at the mobilisation as representing the artillery, armour, air power, air cover and logistic support that new and other forms of ground forces/storm troopers would need to be able to operate at the optimum.
At the very least, you could look at the mobilisation as representing the artillery, armour, air power, air cover and logistic support that new and other forms of ground forces/storm troopers would need to be able to operate at the optimum.
Normally this would be true but I would think the opposite in this case. There's been very little attention paid by the Ukrainians (read: NATO planners etc.) towards the lessons of WWII Eastern front operations so to expect them to be stuck in 'General Mud' won't be surprising to say the least imho. The partial mobilisation announcement just added a huge amount to the existing time pressure on Ukraine. They can't win the war if dragged out, but "high on Kharkiv" it will look extremely tempting to try and do more ops before they end up with a situation where they are now outnumbered by the Russians and allies. Someone's already mentioned that forces were being pulled from Kiev. I suspect my earlier analogy of Operation Michael may be a little too accurate.