It's why a call it a lucky shot if it's the case... even a natural gaz tank don't explode even if you shot api bullet through them.
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
There was not much in terms of equipment losses by the Russians and very few casualties during the Ukrainian major offensive in Kharkov because the Russians had already greatly drawn down their forces there over the last two months. While the Ukrainians were preparing that offensive, the Russians couldn't ramp up reinforcements of personnel and materiel necessary in time to counter it. Why the Russians decided to reduce their numbers to such an extent instead of keeping them in great numbers so as to guard against a probable Ukrainian offensive and pose the threat to go an offensive there and thus keep the Ukrainians honest and wary, which is of great value and reduces pressure against Russian forces in Donbass, is best known to the Russians.
The Russian attack on the Karachun Dam at Krivoy Rog has significantly raised the level of the Ingulets river and made it impassable in the area of the still ongoing first Ukrainian Counter Offensive. Pontoon Bridges have been swept away and fords flooded. Likewise lowland adjacent to the banks will also be flooded making the land soft and very muddy.
This means that for about the next week, Ukrainian forces on the Western Bank of the Ingulets will not be able to cross into the bridgehead and those already trapped in the kill zone of the East Bank Bridgeheads now have no chance of getting back to the West Bank.
This effectively kills or at least puts on hold the Kherson counter offensive and makes it difficult to start it back up, even after the water subsides, because of the softness of the land adjacent to the river.
This means that the Kherson Counter Offensive is no longer going to lock in place very large numbers of Russian forces and many of them will now be free to react to any new offensive on the Southern Front, East of the Dnieper.
I will also say this about Kharkov. The Ukrainians sent in over six brigades to advance into empty territory, but territory that was still under the coverage of Russian aviation and Artillery. No Russian army was fought and no Russian army was defeated. The thinned out Russian forces that had been there moved largely intact and were reinforced along their new defensive line. The Ukrainians still suffered heavy losses as they advanced, from Artillery and Arial attacks
The Ukrainians have now given themselves a problem. The East Kharkov region was empty of forces because ultimately most of it is an empty wilderness. The Ukrainians have made a big thing of reclaiming this large but empty territory. This however makes them hostage to fortune, because if they do like the Russians did and leave it with very little guarding it, the Russians can do the same thing back and inflict a massive propaganda defeat on the Ukrainians with massive loss of face.
To avoid this, they will need to leave a substantial garrison to guard it, locking in troops that really will be badly needed on more active parts of the front.
Quite a dilemma for Zelensky!
This means that for about the next week, Ukrainian forces on the Western Bank of the Ingulets will not be able to cross into the bridgehead and those already trapped in the kill zone of the East Bank Bridgeheads now have no chance of getting back to the West Bank.
This effectively kills or at least puts on hold the Kherson counter offensive and makes it difficult to start it back up, even after the water subsides, because of the softness of the land adjacent to the river.
This means that the Kherson Counter Offensive is no longer going to lock in place very large numbers of Russian forces and many of them will now be free to react to any new offensive on the Southern Front, East of the Dnieper.
I will also say this about Kharkov. The Ukrainians sent in over six brigades to advance into empty territory, but territory that was still under the coverage of Russian aviation and Artillery. No Russian army was fought and no Russian army was defeated. The thinned out Russian forces that had been there moved largely intact and were reinforced along their new defensive line. The Ukrainians still suffered heavy losses as they advanced, from Artillery and Arial attacks
The Ukrainians have now given themselves a problem. The East Kharkov region was empty of forces because ultimately most of it is an empty wilderness. The Ukrainians have made a big thing of reclaiming this large but empty territory. This however makes them hostage to fortune, because if they do like the Russians did and leave it with very little guarding it, the Russians can do the same thing back and inflict a massive propaganda defeat on the Ukrainians with massive loss of face.
To avoid this, they will need to leave a substantial garrison to guard it, locking in troops that really will be badly needed on more active parts of the front.
Quite a dilemma for Zelensky!
According to Micheal Kofman at CNA, it is much more difficult for the Russians to redeploy troops from the Kherson area to Kharkiv than it is for the Ukranians. Whereas it would take Ukrainians a couple of days, it would take at least a week for the Russians which is far from a meaningful response time.
Ukraine has a massive manpower advantage: at least 2:1, possibly more. They shouldn’t have trouble consolidating their gains in Kharkiv. What remains to be seen is at what point will the Russians be able to suppress their momentum.
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So what? Russia has support bases in Crimea and Belgorod for both. It is not like those troops need to be moved.
Yes but that is not what was being said. Russian forces currently staged to contain the Kherson offensive and now free to react to a Ukrainian attack on the Eastern part of the Southern Front; Zaphorisia and Southern Donetsk, not Kharkov.
Talk of the Russians needed a week to transfer forces is about moving them from Kharkov to the South of Donetsk
They are confirming that the 1st Guard Tank was destroyed in the Kharkov offensive.
army/
It appears to be the return of the Chechens on the front lines. I see that regular Russian troops at the front appear to be in rather reduced numbers than in previous months. LDNR troops are fully mobilised, somewhere around 40,000-50,000, PMC Wagner and Chechens somewhere around 20,000-30,000, Russian regular soldiers seem to be on the order of 60,000-70,000, about half of the troops at the start of the war. That's the impression I have. Russian regular soldiers appear to offer support in artillery, air defence, logistics, communications, EW+ reconnaissance and special forces (including some VDV units), whereas mechanized and armored formations appear to be outnumbered.
Airborne early warning (A-50) and modern fighters (Su-30/35) did not prevent the AFU from taking airmobile assaults and anti-radar attacks. Reconnaissance aircraft, drones and high-resolution satellite imagery do not appear to have anticipated the Ukrainian advance on Kharkiv. Vast air power with precision missiles and anti-radiation did not serve to wipe the Ukrainian anti-air defense and artillery of western origin from the map. The air support of fixed wings (Su-25 and Su-34) and rotary (Mi-24/28/35, Ka-50/52) was also not enough to guarantee a very large imbalance in favor of Russian troops, even in offensive and defensive moves. On the contrary, it stopped advancing on the Donbas and retreated into Kharkiv.
In short, it was expected that all these means, force multipliers that Russia has at its disposal, would give it an astonishing qualitative advantage over the Ukrainians. Nothing resembling even the remotest terms of an operation like Desert Storm. I don't know about you, but the Russian advantage, at least in theory, would be such that it would allow for a glimpse of something of this proportion.
army/
It appears to be the return of the Chechens on the front lines. I see that regular Russian troops at the front appear to be in rather reduced numbers than in previous months. LDNR troops are fully mobilised, somewhere around 40,000-50,000, PMC Wagner and Chechens somewhere around 20,000-30,000, Russian regular soldiers seem to be on the order of 60,000-70,000, about half of the troops at the start of the war. That's the impression I have. Russian regular soldiers appear to offer support in artillery, air defence, logistics, communications, EW+ reconnaissance and special forces (including some VDV units), whereas mechanized and armored formations appear to be outnumbered.
Airborne early warning (A-50) and modern fighters (Su-30/35) did not prevent the AFU from taking airmobile assaults and anti-radar attacks. Reconnaissance aircraft, drones and high-resolution satellite imagery do not appear to have anticipated the Ukrainian advance on Kharkiv. Vast air power with precision missiles and anti-radiation did not serve to wipe the Ukrainian anti-air defense and artillery of western origin from the map. The air support of fixed wings (Su-25 and Su-34) and rotary (Mi-24/28/35, Ka-50/52) was also not enough to guarantee a very large imbalance in favor of Russian troops, even in offensive and defensive moves. On the contrary, it stopped advancing on the Donbas and retreated into Kharkiv.
In short, it was expected that all these means, force multipliers that Russia has at its disposal, would give it an astonishing qualitative advantage over the Ukrainians. Nothing resembling even the remotest terms of an operation like Desert Storm. I don't know about you, but the Russian advantage, at least in theory, would be such that it would allow for a glimpse of something of this proportion.
So basically Russia fighting this war with Ukraine is Russia explicitly admitting it has no chance against NATO in a conventional conflict and it would likely have to immediately resort to strategic nuclear forces to stop NATO?
I just don't see why Russia would accept all of the material and man-power losses they have faced over the past six months unless they have concluded a conventional war against NATO is hopeless.
Like BS they destroyed the 1st Guards Tank Army. I do not know how these people can lie like that and keep a straight face.
They see a couple of broken down T-80U and T-80BV tanks which have probably been there since the initial assault on Izyum and call that destroying a whole army.
They see a couple of broken down T-80U and T-80BV tanks which have probably been there since the initial assault on Izyum and call that destroying a whole army.
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It would take the claims of Army destruction at a gallon of salt, usually these claims usually based upon exaggerations of Russian material losses and manpower, just look at the claim of 4th GTA, it was reported to be destroyed a few months ago then a few weeks later it suddenly appear, deploying in Kherson area