The War in the Ukraine

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
Could it be the start of an offensive in the south and flooding could messup Ukraine reinforcement to Mykolaiv oblast ? We need to see bridge blowing up on the Dnieper big time now if they are going for it to block return of Ukrainian troops from the east..

ASB posted another video of the flood taking a bridge out and there is another video with the claim that the water dragged away an Ukranian pontoon bridge in Davydov Brod
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
Yep a strike followed by another could have created a thermobaric explosion with what was inside the plant who became aerosol, if it's the case it's still a lucky shot to have produced that nice uniform shockwave.
Fuels won't aerosol just by firing a missile at them, they just burn. The warhead needs to be designed specifically to atomise a liquid fuel and ignite it at the right time.
 

FriedButter

Major
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Could it be the start of an offensive in the south and flooding could messup Ukraine reinforcement to Mykolaiv oblast ? We need to see bridge blowing up on the Dnieper big time now if they are going for it to block return of Ukrainian troops from the east..

No. This dam is connected to the Ingulet River, which is North East of Kherson city (Mykolaiv is North West) and also connected to the Dnipro River. It’s upstream from Kherson City. It could affect supply transport from ferries across the Dnipro river.

This is probably a delaying action to transfer some more resources to the South. We have heard of a massive Ukrainian buildup in the south and that is likely aiming for Mariupol and could probaboy be used to hit the Crimean bridge. There was also reports of Ukrainian armor columns moving into Kherson 1-2 weeks ago.
 

Zichan

Junior Member
Registered Member
Austrian military academy published its take on the Ukrainian offensive. They claim that both MLRS and Excalibur are being used in the attack.

What is interesting, Ukraine’s attack in the Kherson area consisted of just 9 brigades, plus several SOF battalions.

Finally, due to unfavorable terrain, the Kherson offensive suffered heavy losses from the Russian artillery counter-attacks.
 

Sheleah

Junior Member
Registered Member
Ukraine is not in a state of total war as no war is declared. It only has an anti terrorism operation ATO. In fact, no war has ever been declared since WW2.

Now that you mention it, I don't remember a declarion of war from Ukraine

What are you two talking about?... Russia started military attacks against kyiv, without a declaration of war, tried to take the Ukrainian capital and invaded Ukrainian territories... The declaration of war had to be made by Russia, since it was they who military hostilities began with an infamous invasion...

Ukraine does not have to declare war, they have been attacked and invaded... They are at war, defending their nation

The measures of the state and government, was a state of emergency, general mobilization and martial law

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All protected by its constitution and its institutions... Meanwhile, Russia illegally releases sentenced criminals to offer them as mercenaries to a private company officially detached from the Russian armed forces, without a state of emergency, without martial law, without any law that justify it...
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
I'm not sure if they're randomly lashing out like some people believe or if theres a deeper meaning behind the infrastructure attacks.

The last week, AFU has been operating on the assumption that Russia is criminally understaffed. But if Ukraine has underestimated the actual amount of Russian troops, they may be in very deep shit as Russia is now hitting targets that will severely complicate Ukrainian attempts to retreat.

As Russians retreated, some stuff was left behind. Suspiciously undamaged BMPs, and 2 radar vehicles. Nothing irreplaceable for the RF, but why not drive away fully functional (or at least mobile) vehicles? Or at least throw a grenade down the hatch when leaving. Of course pro Ukraine people will just say it is because Russians are idiotic and dumb so on but even the least trained conscript can follow orders to yeet a grenade if the central command orders it.

People on both sides are hyper fixated on Russia evening the numbers gap by mobilizing, but that isn't the only way to create a pitched battle that favors Russia. Another way to do it would be to deceive Ukraine about how many Russians there are in an area, creating local numerical superiority or at least parity.

AFU is now assuming A: there are about 200 000 Russian troops and B: the defenders of Izyum have moved to the Donetsk direction, losing much of their equipment while doing so. If these assumptions are false, then the forces committed in Izyum are at great risk.

I'd keep my eyes peeled for more infrastructure attacks in the coming days, especially against the Kharkiv front logistic lines.
 
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sheogorath

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Opinion piece by Daniel Davis(no idea), former US Army Lt. Colonel and think tankie

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A few points in the article:

  • In the Kherson region, the offensive suffered massive losses for little if any gains
  • Early before the offensive, it was clear Russia decided to reinforce the South at the expense of the Kharkiv front and as a matter of fact, there weren't that many russian troops in Kharkiv at least since April
  • While Ukraine did exploit the weakened Kharkiv line, the Kherson offensive wasn't a feint
  • Russia had so little troops in Kharkiv they had to make a choice of using what they had to defend every meter to buy time for the reinforcements to arrive or just retreat to preserve manpower, and chose the latter
  • While the success should be celebrated, a battle doesn't mean the end of the war or Russia. At least not any more than the loss of Mariupol or Lysychansk meant the end of Ukraine
  • Russia still has more artillery, tanks, rockets and air power than Ukraine does and Russia still controls 1/5th of the country
  • On the other hand, Ukraine might have lost a lot of equipment in both offensives that will be harder to replace.
  • If Russia chooses full mobilization it could muster enough forces to overwhelm Ukraine in 2023 but it is unlikely they will declare full mobilization. Doesn't mean Putin will allow Russian forces to be squeezed out of Ukraine so there is still plenty of war, destruction, bloodshed, wins and losses left for all involved
 

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
I'll ignore the rest of your post as it can easily derail the thread into politics, again even if there is plenty to be said about "legality" and double standards

Russia illegally releases sentenced criminals to offer them as mercenaries to a private company officially detached from the Russian armed forces


Also, Mercenary companies recruiting convicts and other unsavory characters are something as old as time. You can check Blackwater(or whatever they are called now, which is also doing work for the Ukranian government) along with other PMCs who have openly recruited dishonorably discharged borderline war criminals.

Case in point: you can join the French Foreign Legion(not really mercenaries but close enough) as long as you aren't wanted by Interpol

Complaining about it just because the FSB(which is who hired Wagner) did just the same reeks of moral grandstanding and crocodile tears.
 
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Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
  • If Russia chooses full mobilization it could muster enough forces to overwhelm Ukraine in 2023 but it is unlikely they will declare full mobilization. Doesn't mean Putin will allow Russian forces to be squeezed out of Ukraine so there is still plenty of war, destruction, bloodshed, wins and losses left for all involved
Interesting, looks like there is a trinity in this war, about :
-small losses
-small economical pain
-highest territorial gain.

Russians and USA/UA has to choose, and the Russians choose the small losses and economical plain, the USA/UA choose the highest territorial gain.

Means the controled area is the result of the decisions made by the command with keeping the economy pain smallest with the losses.


On USA/UA side they just keep the territory as target, don't want to loose it and try to get it, means everything else is just result of of the actions needed for territory.

Means Russians showing poor performance on the map, and the USA/UA in the cemetry and hospitals.

The former easier to sell to the masses as success, the later easy to hide.
 
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