The War in the Ukraine

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
I have read that the PLA had long ago started questioning the state of the Russian military (although I am sure that even them are still surprised by their performance in this war)

@siegecrossbow probably knows more about the PLA's assesment of the Russian military
PLA wasn't trained by Russians like India was. India only has a colonial police legacy while PLA was battle hardened and has it's own doctrine long before Russian assistance in 1950s. Russia helped the Chinese MIC but not PLA doctrine.

And the worst losses of "Russian" doctrine were actually due to European training i.e France trained Iraqi air defense troops. Not to mention independent French trained Argentines.
 

tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
I have read that the PLA had long ago started questioning the state of the Russian military (although I am sure that even they are surprised by their performance in this war)

@siegecrossbow probably knows more about the PLA's assesment of the Russian military
Whatever the perceived state of the Russian military, their biggest sin was not to complement what I, IMHO perceive is their weaknesses (especially military electronics, semiconductors and robotic warfare) with the Chinese (which is probably one of China strong points), IS NOW that they are going to Iran to acquire their drones, they should have buy and establish manufacturing capabilities with China a long time ago, to develop chips, sensing equipment (IMUs and so on), optoelectronics, communication equipment, drones and so on.
The PLA is humble enough (and sometimes too humble) to recognize their weaknesses and they will ally with any one that can fulfill their necessities, the Chinese can make their own planes, the J-10 and the JH7 are magnificent machines on their own but when they recognized the necessity of air superiority they didn't think twice on buying Sukhoi jets from Russia.​
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
They are still light on artillery compared to Russians. The difference is still very large. And more importantly, you can recruit as many people as you want as cannon fodders, but that's not going to work very well with modern weapons. Ukraine may claim it has 1 million soldiers, but the real number that can use modern weapons is going to be a fraction of that.

It's clear on the Russian side, LPR/DPR conscripts are not the same quality as Chechens or the more experienced Russian troops. Just handing people a gun and sending them out on the battle field doesn't work anymore. similarly, if Ukrainians are sending its elite troops to lead the charge (I don't know if they are) in Kherson and lost a bunch of them, that would be a big deal.


Why are you still on this "Russians ought to have crushed Ukrainians like a bug" nonsense? Seriously. Russians are what they are. I think we've followed this conflict long enough to know what they are. There will obviously be opportunities for Ukrainians as long as Russian occupies a larger territory with fewer troops. If you can get past this pre-conceived notion of what Russia should be, then their current performance is basically at where we have observed for a while now.

I'm not going to make prognostications on what will happen for the rest of this war. But to me, this particular battle is a case where Ukrainians caught Russians off guard in 1 location because it was not taking things seriously. Based on what we've seen, the Russians will adjust. And the Ukranians will adjust after that. I don't see this battle actually fundamentally change anything because the Russian combat strength didn't seem to decrease. They didn't lose any land that's easily defendable.

To me, this entire victory is more PR than anything else. Maybe this will force Russians military to do some attacks. I don't know.

I'm going to take it easy now. I just want to point out how ridiculous some of this hyperventilating has been.

If the Ukrainians let the victory get to their head then they will make the same mistake and underestimate the Russians, which many on the internet do. That will prove costly, just like it did for Russia.
 

MarKoz81

Junior Member
Registered Member
Commentary to something from a few pages ago:

You're comparing a 700 men structure against a 4000 men structure. If I split the ABCT into six smaller groups, those smaller groups would also be "effectively destroyed" under such losses.

This is misunderstanding of what Battalion Tactical Group is.
  • BGT is not an equivalent of a reinforced battalion.
  • BGT is a reinforced-battalion-sized equivalent of a brigade.
That's why TRADOC compares it to BCT.

To understand BGT we must go back to Anatoliy Syerdukov - the minister of defense from 2007 to 2012. The poor performance of conscript units during the 2008 Russo-Georgian war showed the need for professional force. Syerdukov designated VDV as the branch intended to become fully professional primary rapid reaction force. He then reorganized the ground forces into a flatter structure with brigades as basic unit and armies as operational commands. He proposed that every army designate a number of high-readiness brigades which would be manned by contract-service troops while the remaining brigades would be manned by regular conscripts. Per Russian law conscripts are not allowed to serve abroad so those contract units would be used in any foreign military interventions while conscript units would be used for training and mobilization.

This idea caused pushback from the cadres fearing loss of access to career opportunities and funding for officers of conscript units. Fundamental to Russian military culture was stealing of funds to augment income. It was illegal and at the same time widely accepted. It was just how the system worked. Professional units with significantly higher pool of funding would therefore create a separate caste in the military and that would be a ticking time bomb. There were other criticisms of the reform but this one was the most important. Especially that Syerdukov's cuts were following the previous series of cuts in 2004 that caused a lot of dissatisfaction.

Syerdukov was dismissed in 2012 and his replacement - Shoigu - came to a compromise with the generals. Instead of two types of brigades each brigade would field an improvised battalion-sized formation that would be manned by professional troops. One BGT per unit was the baseline with some exceptions for Moscow-based units and a few others. It guaranteed equal distribution of funds for contract troops and this made the officers happy. It also had unintended consequences in performance.

Because of the culture of graft and limited funding for contract service very few units managed to field a proper reinforced battalion of professional troops. Even those were augmented by conscripts which during 2014 intervention in Ukraine were forced to sign contracts for deployment. This is also why Russia used DPR and LPR militas so extensively - they simply didn't have necessary manpower. A BGT is as large as the commander decides to make it. Technically a BGT is the substitute for a BCT. In reality it never met the minimum level.

The first thing that military told the Kremlin was that a shift from BGT to a regimental combat team was necessary for any major operation and for that - the shift away from brigade to division level. This is also why after 2014 Russia begins to recreate traditional divisions reverting from the previous brigade structure of the army. But with that came more officers... and more "augmentation of income". Even worse - because funds move downward the structure of command the professional artillery is on the division level while tank and motor-rifle regiments underfund their artillery. This means that the BGT fielded by divisions is more convoluted than deployed by brigades.

Then it got even worse. Because of the hysteria that erupted in the west following 2014 Kremlin decided that BGT might not be the best combat formation but it is a good psychological weapon and required that RuMoD increase the number of BGTs available for deployments as deterrence. That was completely absurd because it couldn't be realistically done. Russian army struggled to get enough contract troops for regimental combat teams. So they did what Russians always have done in such situations - they faked the numbers and reports, staged the exercises and demonstrations. The commanders reported new BGTs as ready to Shoigu who proudly delivered the news to Putin and everyone was happy as long as no real fighting against peer enemy happened.

And then real fighting against peer enemy happened.

This is the technical explanation of why the invasion went so badly. For every brigade or regiment deployed there were reports of minimum of 3 BGTs and 4 BGT if reserve material component was attached. But there was only 1 at best 1,5 of BGT personnel on contract available. That meant that BGTs were undermanned even per standard BGT numbers which were deemed insufficient. This is why VDV was so widely and aggressively used. They were the only formation who could throw a "regiment" or a "brigade" into action.

Western intelligence knew this which is why there was such widespread disbelief before 24 February. Russia didn't have the manpower and everyone knew it. They went in anyway.

So whenever you see a map of the front and see a unit marker described as brigade or regiment it is at best a single BGT. Tons of weapons and not enough soldiers. Ukraine is the opposite - tons of soldiers and not enough weapons. As soon as they get the weapons they can exert pressure and begin to wear down Russians who can defend due to material superiority but not attack - because it requires manpower for basic offensive tactics. Instead it allowed certain UAF units like 1st Tank from Chernihiv to a halt because while numerically inferior on paper they were numerically superior in the field.

This is also why VDV have been absolutely ground to dust and the next batch coming in a few months to quickly fill in the slots is going to be undertrained. VDV were the only proper tactical formation. Every other unit had some fighting force but how much - that depended on how much the commander lied to his superiors. The rout from Izyum is the consequence of it as well. That and the fact that Russians decided to throw all remaining VDV units to Kherson. A timely deployment of a VDV airborne battalion could change a lot. Perhaps not the outcome of the operation but at least reduce the tempo and buy time. But if they didn't do it, then the offensive in the south would happen because geographically Russians put themselves in a corner.

Many argue that the dismissal of Syerdukov was the final nail in the coffin of Russian military. That was the last chance for a proper reform and it could only work with painful radical cuts. Those didn't happen and what we see today is the direct consequence.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
That's quite the uniqueview but in reality we are seeing a textbook example of Clausewitz' famous culminating point. Historians will decide if the culminating point was the failure of taking Kyiv or the lack of advancement through the Summer months.
They didn't even try to take Kiev. They parked their army within artillery range of Kiev city centre and did absolutely nothing.

Even now, they are celebrating knocking out Ukraine's power. That's brilliant, but why wasn't it done on day one? Are we to believe that Russia only gained the ability to do so this week?

Russia only ever seems to do anything in response to Ukraine. It takes them sinking the Moskva, shelling a nuclear power plant, committing terrorist attack against a civilian in Russia. Imagine if America fought Saddam the same way.

Russians will be seen as war criminals no matter how nicely they treat the Ukrainians. Pointing fingers at Ukrainians and saying they are the real war criminals won't get you anywhere, nobody is listening.

Learn from Assad, whatever your enemy is accusing you of you do.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
I have read that the PLA had long ago started questioning the state of the Russian military (although I am sure that even they are surprised by their performance in this war)

@siegecrossbow probably knows more about the PLA's assesment of the Russian military

It's very complicated and not one sided Russia Stronk or Russia Joke. The Chinese military respects the Russian military for its combat experience and many of the tactics pioneered during the Syrian War but there have been concerns with the digitalization and reliability/readiness of gear at some exercises. Contrary to popular belief, large scale joint training with Russia (like Vostok) do not involve force on force combat training but attacks against static targets. In fact I do not believe the Russian military employ a professional OPFOR in either the Army or the Air Force, but I could be wrong about it. What is certain is that force on force exercises like the Stride series in Zhurihe does not have a counterpart in Russia.
 

solarz

Brigadier
You either bleed economically or bleed militarily (and economically by extending the war).

Pick your poison

The true military cost is in number of lives. Economically, the cost of replacing lost equipment is far smaller than the cost of a full mobilization, which as @plawolf pointed out, will also skyrocket the cost in lives.

As we've seen in history, large nations stop fighting smaller nations when they get tired of paying the cost, in lives or in resources, and not because they get "defeated".
 

Staedler

Junior Member
Registered Member
This is misunderstanding of what Battalion Tactical Group is.
  • BGT is not an equivalent of a reinforced battalion.
  • BGT is a reinforced-battalion-sized equivalent of a brigade.
That's why TRADOC compares it to BCT.
I think in terms of near-peer combat so my point of view on the subject is quite simple. When the rubber meets the road, what people think their structure should be equivalent to matters very little vs what it is actually equivalent to. There is no material advantage large enough between near peers for 700 men and equipment to be equivalent to 4000 men and equipment.

Criticizing the BTG concept and execution is fine and all, but I disagree with attempts to draw 1v1 duels of 1 BTG vs 1 ABCT and acting like the other 3300 men and equipment that could potentially be in the army mysteriously vanished into the air. That the Russians ran their units understrength is not a limitation of a BTG but of Russia itself yet the graphic implies otherwise.



If army A, totaling 100k men, organizes itself into groups of 1000 and fights army B which also totals 100k men but splits itself into groups of 5000. Do we say Army A is therefore flawed because Group 1000 is weaker than Group 5000? There may be disadvantages and inefficiencies from the grouping sizes but singular Group A vs B head-to-head comparisons are quite pointless.

The real problem only comes when Army A decides Group 1000 is good enough to fight Group 5000 and downsizes itself to only 20k men. Is problem now that the concept of Group 1000 is flawed or is it a "Army A thinks their soldiers are ubermensch" problem?

For an example from real history, the NRA's division-equivalent only had ~5k men. The Japanese division was about 20k men. If you compare the NRA division of 5k against the Japanese 20k, the NRA would of course far poorly. But in reality, the NRA just used more "divisions" to match the Japanese division. What issues they had were not a result of their 5k men division structure, but generalized across the entire NRA. They would have had the same issues regardless of what structure they used.

So I think criticizing the BTG concept as being weaker than an ABCT is a fundamental attribution error. Criticism should be towards the root of the problem.
 
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
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"There are already rumors that Russia is planning to change the formal designation of the war, from “Special Military Operation”. While that could mean a formal declaration of war, I think that is unlikely. Rather, Russia will likely give the Ukraine operation the same designation as its operations in Syria, loosening the rules of engagement and beginning to target Ukrainian assets in earnest.
...
Russia also has many ways to boost its force deployment in Ukraine that fall short of full mobilization. They have a pool of demobilized contract soldiers that they can call up, as well as a pool of reservists that they can raise with a partial mobilization.
...
Russia is in the finishing stage training a new Syrian airborne division. With Russian air cover, an attack on one of the American bases in Syria would be possible - the USA would be forced to choose between shooting down Russian planes and flirting with nuclear war, or humbly accepting the loss of an illegal base that it has worked hard to hide from its own citizens."
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
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"There are already rumors that Russia is planning to change the formal designation of the war, from “Special Military Operation”. While that could mean a formal declaration of war, I think that is unlikely. Rather, Russia will likely give the Ukraine operation the same designation as its operations in Syria, loosening the rules of engagement and beginning to target Ukrainian assets in earnest.
...
Russia also has many ways to boost its force deployment in Ukraine that fall short of full mobilization. They have a pool of demobilized contract soldiers that they can call up, as well as a pool of reservists that they can raise with a partial mobilization.
...
Russia is in the finishing stage training a new Syrian airborne division. With Russian air cover, an attack on one of the American bases in Syria would be possible - the USA would be forced to choose between shooting down Russian planes and flirting with nuclear war, or humbly accepting the loss of an illegal base that it has worked hard to hide from its own citizens."
For God's sake. If the Russians are still deciding on what to call this war things aren't good.

It's a war for your survival, no different to when Hitler invaded (arguably much worse). Get the job done and worry about what to call the war afterwards.
 
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