Crimea takeover was easy as putting boots on the ground and planting flags. Of course they'd be cocky.
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
Crimea takeover was easy as putting boots on the ground and planting flags. Of course they'd be cocky.
Ukraine in this operation is resorting to equipment they got from NATO. This includes the 300x T-72M1 tanks, and other vehicles.
In addition there are multiple reports of foreign forces from NATO countries in the pushes near Kherson and Kharkov.
I think it is pretty fair to say that Russia at this point broke the equipment of Ukraine armed forces otherwise they would not be resorting to tanks which are worse than the T-64 mod. 2017 they already had. The T-72M1 does not have modern optics or armor. It is on the level of a 1980s export T-72 with first generation ERA bricks.
The question is does Russia escalate as well or not. Does Russia just allow NATO to continue to supply Ukraine like this or not?
In addition there are multiple reports of foreign forces from NATO countries in the pushes near Kherson and Kharkov.
I think it is pretty fair to say that Russia at this point broke the equipment of Ukraine armed forces otherwise they would not be resorting to tanks which are worse than the T-64 mod. 2017 they already had. The T-72M1 does not have modern optics or armor. It is on the level of a 1980s export T-72 with first generation ERA bricks.
The question is does Russia escalate as well or not. Does Russia just allow NATO to continue to supply Ukraine like this or not?
They will do less than if they had received a system that they know how to use already... would have been better to send them some old buk launchers and missiles.
Ukraine has proven they can put NATO equipment into action quite efficiently. And the IRIS-T with its outstanding agility and it's LOAL capability including using GPS data should be a massive step above the old Soviet/Russian missile families.
They are still light on artillery compared to Russians. The difference is still very large. And more importantly, you can recruit as many people as you want as cannon fodders, but that's not going to work very well with modern weapons. Ukraine may claim it has 1 million soldiers, but the real number that can use modern weapons is going to be a fraction of that.
It's clear on the Russian side, LPR/DPR conscripts are not the same quality as Chechens or the more experienced Russian troops. Just handing people a gun and sending them out on the battle field doesn't work anymore. similarly, if Ukrainians are sending its elite troops to lead the charge (I don't know if they are) in Kherson and lost a bunch of them, that would be a big deal.
Why are you still on this "Russians ought to have crushed Ukrainians like a bug" nonsense? Seriously. Russians are what they are. I think we've followed this conflict long enough to know what they are. There will obviously be opportunities for Ukrainians as long as Russian occupies a larger territory with fewer troops. If you can get past this pre-conceived notion of what Russia should be, then their current performance is basically at where we have observed for a while now.
I'm not going to make prognostications on what will happen for the rest of this war. But to me, this particular battle is a case where Ukrainians caught Russians off guard in 1 location because it was not taking things seriously. Based on what we've seen, the Russians will adjust. And the Ukranians will adjust after that. I don't see this battle actually fundamentally change anything because the Russian combat strength didn't seem to decrease. They didn't lose any land that's easily defendable.
To me, this entire victory is more PR than anything else. Maybe this will force Russians military to do some attacks. I don't know.
I'm going to take it easy now. I just want to point out how ridiculous some of this hyperventilating has been.
You either bleed economically or bleed militarily (and economically by extending the war).
Pick your poison
More captured Russian vehicle.
Maybe gives an idea what is the purpose to keep scrap vehicles at military bases, in open areas, visible from drones.
Most likelly they run out non operable, scrap tanks and trucks, so they had to spend wood boards and sweat to make a fake truck.
I have read that the PLA had long ago started questioning the state of the Russian military (although I am sure that even they are surprised by their performance in this war)
@siegecrossbow probably knows more about the PLA's assesment of the Russian military
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That's quite the uniqueview but in reality we are seeing a textbook example of Clausewitz' famous culminating point. Historians will decide if the culminating point was the failure of taking Kyiv or the lack of advancement through the Summer months.