The War in the Ukraine

solarz

Brigadier
If that is truly the case, unless Russia fully mobilizes, the Ukrainians are going to bleed out the Russians faster than the Russians will bleed out the Ukrainians.

That's illogical. Full mobilization means you are abandoning civilian economic activities for military activities. That is the very definition of bleeding out. Russian not mobilizing means their economic activities are continuing as normal.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
This have been in my mind for a while and I want to say that civilian evacuation and support is one of the most overlooked aspect of the war by Russia, and may make the entire operation a complete failure even if they managed to recapture all those territories or complete whatever military objective they have in mind.

What is Russia going to do with the territories afterwards when all the supporting civilians are either dead or not in numbers enough to sustain the settlement? Permanently station their troops there to guard the territory against NATO and whatever's left of Ukraine, draining their military resources? Even after the war, they'll still need to keep watch of the terrorist operations that will certainly be conducted by the opposing forces against the newly annexed territory.
This operation is one big major cluster f..k from the way it's looking so far, militarily. The Russians were or are either too arrogant and dismissive of the Ukrainian capabilities (fighting prowess), staying power, and will to fight to the last Russian which is why they're not increasing the numbers of troops needed to pacify their area of responsibility (occupied territories) and mount a formidable defense against any counter offensive from the Ukrainian side. From what I have read, typically, the defending army has an advantage over the attackers provided they defenders have ample manpower, ammunition, food etc...it's getting clear that Russian military and her allies are fat too stretched thin and spread out allowing the Ukrainians aided by U.S. led NATO to exploit the many holes into the Russian held territories that experienced the Ukrainian counter attacked that's looking to be successful.

Face with this yet again tactical losses and a boon for Ukrainian military not to mention a boost of propaganda for many western government leaders worried about their own standings with their increasingly restless public due to inflationary hikes, and energy spikes can now at least show their respective citizens that Russian defeat in Ukraine is more than possible, and the money provided to the Ukrainians have proven their worth which may or may not ameliorate the West's public itchiness against this war.

Russian leadership and especially Putin needs to be shaken up to wake him up from his daydream of which I have yet to know and find out. The prestige of Russian military has been slowly but surely being eroded to the point of mockery and this is something he can't and should not afford to lose since it's one of Russia's core calling cards against any military would be opponents. Not to mention the fact that some of Russia's core allies military leadership are beginning if not begun to question Russian training, weapon effectiveness etc..like some retired general officers in India and maybe even inside the PLA. Thar could spell trouble for the Russians because any further loss of prestige from their military would just emboldened some countries in Central Asia who wish or are inkling to carve a path that's not too beholden of Russian influence or machinations. Then the Russian fear and concerns of China's further encroachment to their old sphere of influence of countries will all but definitely be tilting towards the Chinese.

Russian dominance in energy commodities is what's keeping them in the current game at the costs of their overall strategic significance in their own region and the world. What awaits Russian industries in terms of domestically led companies meeting Russian needs in electronics, automotive, even their military industrial capacity looks like it's struggling to produce their T-14 Armata their supposed F-35 killer SU-57 etc...Sooner or later the Ruskies will realize that the only thing that's keeping them from being overrun by her many enemies is their bazillion NUKES other than that nothing else.
 

tankphobia

Senior Member
Registered Member
You should put up the source, that being Oryx, who apparently can tell a SAP-518SM apart from a standard SAP-518, which is funny given the guys can't tell a BMD-2 apart from a BMD-4M. Also no context for the image, that's just their claim they randomly found the remains of a Flanker nobody accounted for, because thats what you do, apparently.
I'll admit I can't find on hand another source for the jamming pod, but the flanker that crashed is a real thing.
 

pmc

Major
Registered Member
That's exactly the point. The Armored Brigade Combat Team is the smallest independent operating basic deployable unit of maneuver in the US Army. Meanwhile the BTG is the Russian counterpart as smallest independent operating maneuver unit. The paper properly explains the fundamental flaws of the BTG concept in a conventional war. Having artillery batteries on that level gives a BTG a remarkable firepower on paper but like stated the fact that they can't sustain any loses is the crucial factor here.
Nato has 130K soldiers at Peak in Afghan when you look at map. the fighting area will be 30%. why they cannot e finish the job despite not fighting force with real time intelligence and equipment.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

the point i am making is that in 6 months you cannot come to conclusion about sustainability and effectiveness of operation when Russia primary using Ka-52/Su-25 developed from Soviet Engineering. only now Ka-52M entering service and that Su-25SM3 will be too few.
just to give you idea. it took over a decade to create Mi-28NM from MI-28N.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
I'll admit I can't find on hand another source for the jamming pod, but the flanker that crashed is a real thing.

Like the Su-34, it has been there for a while now, so I doubt it wasn't accounted for.

On the other hand, the pod in the video pretty much is half gone, seeing how its crushed against the ground while the other wing is completely burned off.

Which explains why they took a picture of only half a pod if it comes from the same wreckage; can't lie about a "slightly dented" pod if the rest of it was crushed beyond recognition in the crash.

Another one to chalk up to Team Douma.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
This operation is one big major cluster f..k from the way it's looking so far, militarily. The Russians were or are either too arrogant and dismissive of the Ukrainian capabilities (fighting prowess), staying power, and will to fight to the last Russian which is why they're not increasing the numbers of troops needed to pacify their area of responsibility (occupied territories) and mount a formidable defense against any counter offensive from the Ukrainian side. From what I have read, typically, the defending army has an advantage over the attackers provided they defenders have ample manpower, ammunition, food etc...it's getting clear that Russian military and her allies are fat too stretched thin and spread out allowing the Ukrainians aided by U.S. led NATO to exploit the many holes into the Russian held territories that experienced the Ukrainian counter attacked that's looking to be successful.

Face with this yet again tactical losses and a boon for Ukrainian military not to mention a boost of propaganda for many western government leaders worried about their own standings with their increasingly restless public due to inflationary hikes, and energy spikes can now at least show their respective citizens that Russian defeat in Ukraine is more than possible, and the money provided to the Ukrainians have proven their worth which may or may not ameliorate the West's public itchiness against this war.

Russian leadership and especially Putin needs to be shaken up to wake him up from his daydream of which I have yet to know and find out. The prestige of Russian military has been slowly but surely being eroded to the point of mockery and this is something he can't and should not afford to lose since it's one of Russia's core calling cards against any military would be opponents. Not to mention the fact that some of Russia's core allies military leadership are beginning if not begun to question Russian training, weapon effectiveness etc..like some retired general officers in India and maybe even inside the PLA. Thar could spell trouble for the Russians because any further loss of prestige from their military would just emboldened some countries in Central Asia who wish or are inkling to carve a path that's not too beholden of Russian influence or machinations. Then the Russian fear and concerns of China's further encroachment to their old sphere of influence of countries will all but definitely be tilting towards the Chinese.

Russian dominance in energy commodities is what's keeping them in the current game at the costs of their overall strategic significance in their own region and the world. What awaits Russian industries in terms of domestically led companies meeting Russian needs in electronics, automotive, even their military industrial capacity looks like it's struggling to produce their T-14 Armata their supposed F-35 killer SU-57 etc...Sooner or later the Ruskies will realize that the only thing that's keeping them from being overrun by her many enemies is their bazillion NUKES other than that nothing else.
They spent something like 5 billion USD on things like Oscar class SSGN modernization, Admiral Nakhimov refit, Marshal Ustinov refit and trying to repair Kuznetsov.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

If they spent this $5 billion USD on 500 T-14s (1.5 billion), 10k tactical radios, DJI drones and NVGs (500 million), 30 Su-57s (2 billion), 24 CH-6s (500 million) and 10k PGMs (500 million).

They'd also have freed up the salary of 5k sailors and maintenance on those ships and could've hired equal amount of professional infantry, pilots and tank drivers.

Russia with an additional 500 T-14s, 30 Su-57s, 5k soldiers, 10k PGMs and 24 CH-6 drones would've overran Ukraine or at least taken way more territory.
 

Pmichael

Junior Member
Nato has 130K soldiers at Peak in Afghan when you look at map. the fighting area will be 30%. why they cannot e finish the job despite not fighting force with real time intelligence and equipment.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

the point i am making is that in 6 months you cannot come to conclusion about sustainability and effectiveness of operation when Russia primary using Ka-52/Su-25 developed from Soviet Engineering. only now Ka-52M entering service and that Su-25SM3 will be too few.
just to give you idea. it took over a decade to create Mi-28NM from MI-28N.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

I don't really get your point. How is that related to the organization of the Russian Army?
 

pmc

Major
Registered Member
I don't really get your point. How is that related to the organization of the Russian Army?
it is related as i was showing that it takes this long to put modern equipment into Russian army aviation which is very visible. so you cannot judge some thing so soon when not every modern equipment will not be there at work optimally. it has nothing to do with organization or manpower.
 
Top