Why insist that Russia has some military advantage in Ukraine in winter???... The invasion began in the strongest winter months (between February and March), they took the Ukrainians by surprise and still did not achieve any objective , just at the end of winter they were withdrawing from kyiv and Chernigov... The areas they took to the south was because a large part of the Ukrainian units were infiltrated and offered very little resistance... In strong combat, Russia has lost more than what you have earned in Ukraine, no matter what time of year
On the other hand, it seems that the Chinese networks have become disappointed in Russians and now it is a reason for memes
I have given this analysis before but I will put it here. if there are other members here with actual military experience and training in the winter, they will agree with my points.
1. most of ukraine's draftees were drafted and trained in the summer, seeing as they were brought in in a hurry, likely did not get any winter training or acclimation. on aggregate, russian soldiers are not draftees, they should have more experience and training operating in the winter, so they are less prone to cold injuries compared to their ukrainian counterparts.
2. winter is logistics-intensive. whereas in the summer, a soldier can survive days off of his rucksack, in the winter a soldier require winter tents, fuel for fire and light, extra food and clothing, just to survive. also note that because of the need for warm food and water, there is a higher risk of being exposed by infrared sensors.
3. because of these logistic necessities, the small team tactics that worked in the summer no longer works in the winter, forces have to be concentrated to be resupplied. so battles will favor the side with superior firepower and situational awareness. ukrainian artillery lags that of russians, as for situational awareness both sides benefit from drones, but the bulk of russian forces are often further back from the front lines so they benefit slightly more. if russia does have iranian drones coming in, then this would further tilt the balance in their favor.
4. what ukraine had going for them the last winter was that the russian forces in the north bypassed cities and settlements, allowing them operate out of these urban strongholds to hit the russian supply line. the fighting in donbass now has turned into positional warfare and barring some crazy turn of events will remain so for the winter, so the factors I have listed above will play a more critical role. ukrainian units are likely going to prefer to pull into cities rather than freeze in trenches, which will give the russians better freedom of movement. as I have said before russians can exploit this only if they have a bigger force, which is why between now and the winter when the ground hardens again russia would be well served to train up additional units specifically prepared for winter fighting.