The War in the Ukraine

plawolf

Lieutenant General
We're not even seeing that many ukrainian heavy vehicles...

I mean how do you define losing? The previous Ukrainian strategy of holding ground is also losing but slowly, as seen currently Ukraine seem to excel at maneuver warfare (at least better than Russia), it is better for them to do aggressive offensives to regain the initiative rather than sit in their defenses to be bombarded to dust by the Russian artillery advantage. Before this offensive Russian losses were smallish due to the static frontlines, now we're really seeing the effect attrition has on Russian performance, Ukrainians are literally punching through the Kharkiv front with light vehicles like it was made of paper.

Ah wow, how foolish of the world’s militaries to waste all that money on heavy armour and combined arms armies when ISIS level mass technical spam was all anyone needs!

You know what happens when glorified technical squadrons run into enemy positions with even 50 cals? They cease to exist.

The casualties the Ukrainians and foreign fighters are taking for these successes would be completely ridiculous and unacceptable to any modern military.

They are only succeeding because of how thinly the Russians are spread at the front. Most technical charges that hit actual Russian positions are just Turkey shoots for the Russians, but there are so many technicals charges and the Russians major formations are spread so thin that its inevitable that multiple breaches occur as technicals find gaps in the line or overwhelm small Russian checkpoint formations. This then forces the major Russian formations to have to hastily retreat for fear of being cut off.

This can be disproportionately effective, as America itself knows for being on the receiving end of such tactics in Korea.

But the problem is such advances are unsustainable, and the gains made indefensible without massive heavy armour and artillery following up to secure ground against the inevitable Russian combined arms body slam of a counter attack.

You are not seeing the Ukrainian armour follow up because they don’t have the armour left to support and sustain this scale of offensive operations.

As someone very timely pointed out to me earlier, these Ukrainian attacks are irrational and illogical, which is how they have managed to catch the Russians out. The Russians weren’t expecting modern kamikaze equivalent strategic attacks, their mistake. But the damage Ukraine is doing to its own overall war effort with these attacks are far more devastating as they emptied almost all the reserves and defensive lines for these Leroy Jenkin 2.0 charges.

Yes, the Ukrainians were loosing slowly and steadily before with trench warfare and artillery duels against the Russians. But the Russians could not deliver a mighty knock-out blow either, and were limited to slowly bleeding Ukraine to death with a thousand small cuts. But now, but putting so many of its eggs in this one shitting basket, Ukraine has gifted Russia the opportunity to deliver a devastating, maybe war-endingly devastating blow once they pull themselves together to blunt the new charge of the light brigade and begin their counter offensives.

As I said before, this feels too stupid to not be a feature.
 

LawLeadsToPeace

Senior Member
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Registered Member
Are we going to ignore the elephant in the room that is the AFU is on the verge of closing the Izyum salient and there's been a minimal sign of Russian reinforcements?
According to Defense Politics Asia, Russian reinforcements are trying to get there, but the Ukrainians destroyed all of the bridges to stall them.
 

GodRektsNoobs

Junior Member
Registered Member
Are we going to ignore the elephant in the room that is the AFU is on the verge of closing the Izyum salient and there's been a minimal sign of Russian reinforcements?
Jesus, everytime when I'm confident that Russia has things under control, their failures always raises my blood pressure. Likewise everytime Ukraine appears to be have the upper hand, they always seem to waste it in a way that wants me to pull my hair out.

All I can say is the 斯拉夫大区优秀的匹配机制 at work.
 

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
According to Defense Politics Asia, Russian reinforcements are trying to get there, but the Ukrainians destroyed all of the bridges to stall them.
It look like the big battle until winter, I cannot see more when everything will be muddy. Ukraine need to nail it or bust, it's clearly a all or nothing offensive and the Russian forces need to act accordingly. Iskander needed to be kept for the occasion and the airplanes sleeping on airports near the borders need to fly.
 

Botnet

Junior Member
Registered Member
They obviously did spot the build up because they were able to withdraw.
They were able to withdraw because the Ukrainians were incompetent, they couldn't even properly encircle Balakliya. They wouldn't be scrambling and launching airlifts to reinforce Kupyansk and Izium if they were prepared. I dont think any serious commentator has disputed that Russia got caught with their pants down.
Up until now all fronts have been effective stalemates. Russians weren't prepared to do what was necessary to end the war (mass destruction of Ukrainian forces and cities). The Ukrainians were too afraid to leave their cities.

This Ukrainian offensive reminds me of the Battle of the Bulge. A big German counter offensive against allied positions. The Allies withdrew until the Germans overextended and then they were attacked. It lead to the collapse of the Siegfried line. I'll give the Ukrainians some credit for changing the status quo, but it seems suicidal to me.
Nothing to suggest the Russians will be able to capitalize on it. They've been reacting to Ukraine's moves so far, and even so they've been a couple steps behind.
 
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