New attack by Ukrainian saboteurs on Russian territory, this time against a checkpoint, several guards injured
The invaders are attacked from all sides...
The invaders are attacked from all sides...
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
Say what you want about Poland's performance at Strong Europe, at least it wasn't rigged, which is more than I could say for some other tank competition featuring guided anti-tank spider mines with FOF capabilities.
You might be overthinking this.
While many NATO countries laugh at poor Russian logistics/smoking aircraft carrier/poor inventory of guided weapons, how many of them have looked at themselves in the mirror?
I think it boils down to what the definition of a "loss" is. But based on reports from even pro-Russian sides things are not looking good right now. Based on what has happened, I think the "best" case scenario is for Russia to keep things going ala Sino-Vietnamese border conflicts in the 1980s post the 1979 war, but I could be wrong and I will own up to it should things end differently.
GEN. MILLEY: So it is the question of progress in the south. Again, as I said in my opening remarks, I think it's a bit early to make a full and wholesome assessment. What the Ukrainians are doing is a very deliberate offensive attack. They are setting conditions with fires in order to set conditions for ground maneuver to accomplish the objectives that they set out.
I don't want to go over specific axises of advance or specific objectives at this point. I think that's too early. But I would say that -- I would characterize it as a very deliberate offensive operation that is calibrated to set conditions, and then seize their objectives, and -- and we think at this point that their progress -- you -- you mentioned the word "modest" or "moderate". Their -- their progress is steady, and it's deliberate.
deliberate?
deliberate what?
-They are wasting precious's resources, that they may need in a future Russian offensive to achieve nothing.
Secondly is overstretch. No, I don't. There are -- this battlefield, you know, from -- from Kharkiv all the way down to Kherson is a significant front-line trace, if you will. It's about 2,500 kilometers of -- of border that Ukraine has to protect, and about 1,300 are -- are engaged in act -- 1,300 kilometers are engaged in, you know, active combat one way or another, and that's a little bit less than that as you go from Kharkiv down to Kherson.
-They are overstretched
So there's fighting all along that front, and one of the areas you mentioned, the counteroffensive up in Kharkiv that -- that is being launched also by Ukraine, there's been fighting back and forth in and around Kharkiv for the entire time, but I don't think they are particularly overstretched, per se. But there is fighting both offense and defense from -- all the way from Kharkiv all the way down to Kherson. Right now, the intensity of the fighting is occurring up in Kharkiv. There's significant fighting down around Bakhmut, and then, of course, the offensive down in Kherson. So they're continuing the fight. They've got the forces to do it, and we'll see how this plays out.
-That doesn't sound like a lot of confidence
I think the Ukrainians need better military strategists.
I don't want to go over specific axises of advance or specific objectives at this point. I think that's too early. But I would say that -- I would characterize it as a very deliberate offensive operation that is calibrated to set conditions, and then seize their objectives, and -- and we think at this point that their progress -- you -- you mentioned the word "modest" or "moderate". Their -- their progress is steady, and it's deliberate.
deliberate?
deliberate what?
-They are wasting precious's resources, that they may need in a future Russian offensive to achieve nothing.
Secondly is overstretch. No, I don't. There are -- this battlefield, you know, from -- from Kharkiv all the way down to Kherson is a significant front-line trace, if you will. It's about 2,500 kilometers of -- of border that Ukraine has to protect, and about 1,300 are -- are engaged in act -- 1,300 kilometers are engaged in, you know, active combat one way or another, and that's a little bit less than that as you go from Kharkiv down to Kherson.
-They are overstretched
So there's fighting all along that front, and one of the areas you mentioned, the counteroffensive up in Kharkiv that -- that is being launched also by Ukraine, there's been fighting back and forth in and around Kharkiv for the entire time, but I don't think they are particularly overstretched, per se. But there is fighting both offense and defense from -- all the way from Kharkiv all the way down to Kherson. Right now, the intensity of the fighting is occurring up in Kharkiv. There's significant fighting down around Bakhmut, and then, of course, the offensive down in Kherson. So they're continuing the fight. They've got the forces to do it, and we'll see how this plays out.
-That doesn't sound like a lot of confidence
I think the Ukrainians need better military strategists.
Wasn’t this offensive planned by NATO? If I remember that was what CNN said.
Idk why Putin insists on fighting this war with his hands ziptied to his legs. He seems to care more about domestic approval, when the direction of the entire country is resting on this campaign. Yet he can afford 50k troops to participate in Vostok 2022 instead of bolstering defenses. We can all see the result of that here. He wont strike Kyiv, I'm not sure if they even have the capability to strike bridges near the UA frontlines or the Dnieper anymore. It should be clear there's no way to win the war with current force dispositions, but no mobilization is underway yet... Frankly if Russia is struggling this hard against Ukraine, I wouldn't even want to imagine how'd they do against the US. Which reminds me, how did Russia not spot the buildup near Kharkiv? This wasn't a small-time, local counterattack. I wont even go into the performance of the RuAF.
I was consistently wrong about this war ao take these with a grain of salt. (It was mostly because Russia keeps underperforming) But I think a few things have happened.
1- Unlike many have argued against a frontline has emerged. Russia protects it with a very thin line of forces of various types. Because it doesn't have enough soldiers.
2- Russia also can not conduct large offensives because it does not have enough soldiers again.
3- Ukraine's offensive power is limited because of the heavy equipment and airpower advantage Russia enjoys. Even the new Kharkiv offensive is small. The captured area is small and Ukrainian forces didn't face many Russian forces in the first place.
At this phase I'd say the war is mostly in a stalemate. In long term, Russia faces a real risk of losing the territories it captured unless it knocks out Ukraine. And that is only possible through a re-organization and mobilization.
Overall, this war has shown us that the Russian leadership is not competent. They started a war without planning and preperation. Russian forces were not fit such an operation. (I will write about this later) And they are crippling their power with their bs "Special military operation" terminology.
Russian are waiting for winter ?
Both sides got an hellish number of failures crossing rivers. We don't talk a lot about the number of pontoon that got destroyed but it's probably astonishing. I don't think that Russia have the capacity right now to cross rivers rapidly with a huge force, they lost to many and to many troops on making beach heads on small rivers. Ukrainians are in the same situation, they just stopped at Oskil and turned north and south like the river was some kind of impregnable fortress in the late push north of Izyum.
Each side trying it got themselves cut out losing reinforcements and logitics. Autumn will bring mud and incredibly bad roads making advances quite difficult. If Ukraine is able to keep ground for 3 weeks, they have paractically until january to slowly build up troops on the front.
Winter will change things a lot when ice bridges will be created all over the plains. It will be the moment of truth for both sides. It will be the worst winter for civilians that have stayed put in the east and troops cut out or without good supply from both sideswill probably transform in pow rapidly.
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He is scared about losing his seat. That is more important to him. This is why a single person shouldn't have all the power and also why the CPC outperforms monkey democracies.
Russia did. But the RuAF's air to ground capabilities are limited to very basic CAS. And Russian forces were heavily outnumbered even before the buildup.