The War in the Ukraine

lolrus said:

If you look at the composition of forces it makes prefect sense why they were able to blitz across the defenders. But this following week will be interesting with Russia reinforcement arriving. If Ukraine can't keep up this momentum and stall the Russian airforce and artillery would really start to sting.

https://imgur.com/El87fhd

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How nice of the Ukrainians to put themselves into a cauldron.

I'm trying to understand the logic in this offensive. Up until now whatever the Ukrainians were doing had kept most of Ukraine unoccupied. Putting so many of your soldiers out of SAM safety is effectively condemning them to death. What happens when the Russians close around the offensive and cut it off from resupply?

I think things must be getting desperate in Kiev for them to attempt a suicidal push like this. Maybe they've finally realised that time isn't on their side?

lolrus said:

If you look at the composition of forces it makes prefect sense why they were able to blitz across the defenders. But this following week will be interesting with Russia reinforcement arriving. If Ukraine can't keep up this momentum and stall the Russian airforce and artillery would really start to sting.

https://imgur.com/El87fhd

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Infantry and (grounded?) paratroopers leading the spearhead and armour following at the back based on the icons in the animation?

Abominable said:

How nice of the Ukrainians to put themselves into a cauldron.

I'm trying to understand the logic in this offensive. Up until now whatever the Ukrainians were doing had kept most of Ukraine unoccupied. Putting so many of your soldiers out of SAM safety is effectively condemning them to death. What happens when the Russians close around the offensive and cut it off from resupply?

I think things must be getting desperate in Kiev for them to attempt a suicidal push like this. Maybe they've finally realised that time isn't on their side?

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Maye they are too desperate to gain territory.

Broccoli said:

MANPAD fired at Russian Mi-24 and large smoke pilar seen rising from it's flight direction.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568155635061080064

Russian tanks exploding.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568101074657058816

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568147942854328320

Another abandoned BMP-3.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568143589904945152

Brothers morale not high.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1567983573172363264

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That first T-72B3 tank looks like it took a hit into the side of its hull by a fast moving projectile.

tygyg1111 said:

Whether they can hold and keep this territory is the real question.

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Also they talk like between the first andthird week of April, they didn't lose all access to the Azov Sea and most of the Black Sea.

tokenanalyst said:

Maye they are too desperate to gain territory.

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They better take back some territory, i'm not going to see my dam tax money be wasted i want some dam results.
/s

How wide is that salient opening, next week should be interesting if they can cut off the Ukrainians. I predict the Ukrainian will feel the heat really soon i saw that Russia is moving air support to Izyum.

tygyg1111 said:

Whether they can hold and keep this territory is the real question.

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They have basically hours to widen that cauldron as much as possible before the Russians launch a counterattack and close it, because once the Russians close the back door it will be a massacre.

At the same time, probably taking advantage of diminished resources, Wagner mercenaries are making a push towards Bakhmut.

TOS-1 on the way to Kupyansk

Several abandoned Ukranian vehicles around Kherson which I guess the Russians are going to mop up whatever is left of the offensive in the south


S300/S400 and Pantsyrs on the way to Izyum as well. Likely a major counteroffensive coming in the area with air power behind it.

There is some talk about AFU killing of civilians in Balakleya, but I haven't seen any confirmation so might as well be fake for now. Not that I don't put it past the Ukranians to do it, but without any concrete evidence, is just talk.

Call it copium but i really don't see any value on seriously defending open fields. My go to plan would be the same as Russia did. Leave a skeleton crew on the front line and have reserves far behind.

Its just open fields, if the enemy exploits this penny-pinching of troops then big deal, they will just gain some kilometres of open field. Next thing you know, reinforcements will come and take that back.

Its really a game of mouse and cat. Don't get me wrong though, if it was anything else than open fields then that tactic quickly becomes worthless as if the enemy grabs a good (terrain) defensive position with minimal losses then to get it back from them you should be ready to suffer x times the losses.

Its all about terrain and its value. Open fields are basically worthless and can easily be traded for other objectives. So yeah, for Russia with its manpower restrictions, having a skeleton crew at this front is relatively ok

Ukraine attacks, Russia retreats, Russian reinforcements come in, mop them up, and proceed to take back the land and possible counter-attack to exploit their defeated and weakened unit formations

TongHua said:

Numbers do matter. Mid size UCAV are made in large numbers. Just take a look how many TB2 Turkey built as an example. It's ginormous. Also, with mid size UCAV no humans are endangered if they get shot down. It don't matter how many get shot down, these things keep coming until you simply get overwhelmed.

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Ukraine bought TB2 this only new addition in there 8 years. and how much risk it took by using airbase for these drones. is there video of 4 or 5 TB2 circling in same battlespace?. so where is evidence of saturated attack from TB2 class drones.
large number of TB-2 class UCAV will need alot of manpower in terms of flight preparation / controllers with limitations of light weapons. what if target is in trenches/ bunkers or hide in forests. how the light weopons of drone going to deal with it?. not every shot is at 100% accurate on target. these drones simply not carry enough in multi target environment.
Su-25 will enter battlefield at 600km/hr while TB2 at less than 200km/hr. you can add fuel tanks to Su-25/Ka-52 for more persistence.
these things are refined in Syria now you add Su-34M with JSTAR kind capability, tactical drones etc. so this is the war template.