So the talks about high numbers of friendly fire incidents from the ukranians do have some merit.
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
So the talks about high numbers of friendly fire incidents from the ukranians do have some merit.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
I’d be amazed if there wasn’t high fratricide amongst the Ukrainian ranks.
Large numbers of freshly drafted conscripts with minimal training and who’s only combat experience, if any, is probably being on the receiving end of Russian artillery and gunship attacks.
Then you have both sides using similar if not the same military equipment as well as the added complexity of a vast array of new foreign equipment being brought in on the Ukraine side, so they cannot even go the easy route to training their conscripts to check for distinguishing features of friendly armour and to shoot anything else.
I also have a strong suspicion that one of the accepted costs of Ukraine’s above expectations artillery game is high fratricide incident rates.
People laugh at how slow the Russian artillery and aviation kill chains can be, but I think the overwhelming majority of the delays between reported sightings and rounds on target is down to IFF, due to how messy and blurry the lines (both physical and communications) are and with so much use of PMC and militia by the Russians to do the bulk of the fighting and dying.
You probably have similar if not worse communications on the Ukrainian side, with newly minted units and large numbers of battlefield attrition replacements coming in with civilian or foreign gear and comms. Trying to do minimal time kill chains under those circumstances is extremely risky to put it mildly. But that’s what the Ukrainians need to do because every minute they are waiting on IFF confirmation is more risk of being found and hit by Russian aviation and/or artillery.
I think the main reason this has not bitten the Ukrainians on the arse harder is down to their widespread use of DJI drones, which gives them the ability to do real time visual checks and confirmations at minimal cost and risk. If DJI was a western company, I’m sure Ukraine would have minted a new national holiday for it.
Broccoli
Senior Member
False claim as Russians casulties have been high. At least thousand upgraded frontline tanks lost (verified by images and videos) out of less than 3000 in active service, 20-30 Pantsir systems lost out of 120-130, up to 20 KA-52's lost while Russia is said to operate slightly over 100 before invasion begun, etc.
When we look at fact that not all losses have been cataloged it's likely Russians have lost 1/3 modern equipment they have in military.
I forgot to mention +200 lost BMP-3's out of 650-700 and it's most modern IFV in Ru military.
Source oryx? Or Ukrainian MOD?
I've been watching videos of Vostok 2022, and in my head I can't figure out how on earth, with their military bogged down and being crushed in Ukraine, having lost 1000s of their best tanks, are the Russians able to simultaneously pull off this exercise in another part of the country while the military has been decimated in Ukraine?
I mean they are using hundreds T90m, T72B3, there are thousands and thousands of soldiers, gunships, attack aircraft, just doesn't add up with the massive losses in Ukraine. Supposedly 150 thousand Russian soldiers are there?!?!?
The only explanation is they lied about the numbers they were building in Mordor all this time
All this could be used in the war efforts instead of some picnic at Vostok. Doesn't make any sense
I mean they are using hundreds T90m, T72B3, there are thousands and thousands of soldiers, gunships, attack aircraft, just doesn't add up with the massive losses in Ukraine. Supposedly 150 thousand Russian soldiers are there?!?!?
The only explanation is they lied about the numbers they were building in Mordor all this time
All this could be used in the war efforts instead of some picnic at Vostok. Doesn't make any sense
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Russian military has some 250 thousand conscripts. A large chunk of those serve in the Army. And most of those aren't doing much, as they're being prohibited from participating in the war in Ukraine. By Russian law, meaning by Putin himself. Putin could "easily" declare official war on Ukraine and then send all those conscripts into Ukraine, but he chooses not to due to various reasons known to him.
Allegedly, there aren't 150 thousand troops at Vostok 2022 but "only upward of 50 thousand". And those include overall military personnel involved. So commanders, logistics and support, air force, navy, army, etc etc.
Allegedly, there aren't 150 thousand troops at Vostok 2022 but "only upward of 50 thousand". And those include overall military personnel involved. So commanders, logistics and support, air force, navy, army, etc etc.
Even Oryx only counted like 8-10 Pantsirs, 130 BMP-3s and 16 KA-52
Probably just a made up number by him lol
Super power 2030 might become a reality if this is kept for a few years.
I just realized the dudes running Oryx are related to Bellingcat and are DRPK watchers, so now everything makes sense.
Anyway, just as a few examples:
These two photos are counted as different BMP-3's despite when it the captures come from the exact same video from the same stretch of highway, so it is most likely just the same BMP-3, notwithstanding the fact even if they were different vehicles, the first one is so far away you can't really tell what the fuck it is(claims 1 and 2)
In other cases he just quotes UAweapon tracker guy even if the guy has no idea what he is looking at since the picture isn't clear enough to identify it(claim 47)
Or misidetifies them. This one gets counted as a BMP-3 despite obviously not being one(claim 76)
He then uses this tweet as backup to Claim 43 for the BMD-2 AND also uses it as Claim 2 for the BMD-4M
And this is just after a cursory glance over the list. Shit gets a bit more egregious with planes
Claim 2 for the Su-34's is barely identifiable and might as well be part of any of the other wreckages being counted
Claim 10 which is of an obituary of an alleged Su-34 pilot with no attempt at clearing if its related to the other previous wrecks, it justs gets counted as a different one altogether. And Claim 6 is just him counting the one that crashed in Belarus, just because; which we might as well count the F-18's that have crashed in the US since 2001 until 2021 as losses to the Taliban, then.
Anyway, just as a few examples:
These two photos are counted as different BMP-3's despite when it the captures come from the exact same video from the same stretch of highway, so it is most likely just the same BMP-3, notwithstanding the fact even if they were different vehicles, the first one is so far away you can't really tell what the fuck it is(claims 1 and 2)
In other cases he just quotes UAweapon tracker guy even if the guy has no idea what he is looking at since the picture isn't clear enough to identify it(claim 47)
Or misidetifies them. This one gets counted as a BMP-3 despite obviously not being one(claim 76)
He then uses this tweet as backup to Claim 43 for the BMD-2 AND also uses it as Claim 2 for the BMD-4M
And this is just after a cursory glance over the list. Shit gets a bit more egregious with planes
Claim 2 for the Su-34's is barely identifiable and might as well be part of any of the other wreckages being counted
Claim 10 which is of an obituary of an alleged Su-34 pilot with no attempt at clearing if its related to the other previous wrecks, it justs gets counted as a different one altogether. And Claim 6 is just him counting the one that crashed in Belarus, just because; which we might as well count the F-18's that have crashed in the US since 2001 until 2021 as losses to the Taliban, then.