The War in the Ukraine

That sounds like a joke.

The reality of the offensive:



In addition to that Intel Slava posted a few hours ago the high demand for ambulances in Kharkiv, which means that the AFU manpower has suffered a lot of losses, as I recall, the governor of the region said that he would have to transfer these dead and wounded to other oblasts, but it's not like pro-Ukraine channels are going to publicize it.

sheogorath said:

Pretty sure Excalibur were already spotted a couple of months ago, video and all.

Wounded soldiers from the Kherson offensive admit they failed to dislodge Russian forces and were hit with pretty much every form of artillery and weapons.

The article quotes a soldier: "We lost five people for every one they did,” said Ihor, a 30-year-old platoon commander who injured his back when the tank he was riding in crashed into a ditch."

Extensive use of fortified hull-down position for tanks, drones and counter-battery radars from the Russians

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There are some other important notes in the article.

Ihor had no military experience before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. He made a living selling animal feed to pig and cow farms. His replacement as platoon commander also has no previous military experience, he said.

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Russian hacking tools hijacked the drones of Ukrainian operators, who saw their aircraft drift away helplessly behind enemy lines.

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Oleksandr said the Russian artillery fire was relentless. “They were just hitting us all the time,” he said. “If we fire three mortars, they fire 20 in return.”

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The Ukrainian soldiers said they had to carefully ration their use of munitions but even when they did fire, they had trouble hitting targets. “When you give the coordinates, it’s supposed to be accurate, but it’s not,” he said, noting that his equipment dated back to 1989

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- Shortage of Officers
- Overwhelming Russian Artillery (they aren’t running low on ammo)
- Russians are hijacking Ukrainian drones mid air
- Ukraine is rationing munitions

Several weeks ago, there was discussion about how Russia had a fully intent TB2 turkey drone for their event. Perhaps the Russians hijacked it mid air and flew it back to base.

tankphobia said:

I want to know how Russia can/will end this war now that it has started it 6 months ago with no end in sight.

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Ukraine is not willing to negotiate on territorial concessions. My prediction is that Putin will drag this war over the winter (+ gas/oil cuts) which will force the Europeans to force the Ukrainians to the negotiation table.... which leads to two possible outcomes:

• If oil/gas strategy is successful, then final settlement will be Russia withdraws to Feb 23rd borders in Donbass/Crimea, Ukraine pledges neutrality, Ukraine recognizes Crimea as Russia, Ukraine gets some security guarantees from Europe/others, and then few months later, DPR/LNR gets referendum and annexed by Russia.
• If oil/gas strategy is unsuccessful to force Europeans to force Ukrainians to negotiate, then Putin will unilaterally declare victory after DPR is liberated, and annex existing occupied territory.

tankphobia said:

At least I believe Russia would hate to be the junior in this relationship.

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It takes time for Russia to adapt to the new reality that China is head-and-shoulders above Russia in every single aspect except warhead count.

tankphobia said:

Would it not be preferable for the War to end as soon as possible such that Russia can at least retain some semblance of control over its relationship with China?

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I used to think this way, but unfortunately, US is a bigger threat to both Russia and China, so that's more important than useless uninhabitable land in Outer Manchuria or backwaters like Central Asia competition. Outer Manchuria is still Chinese territory though, but US is way wayyy more pressing priority here.

tankphobia said:

If the might of the entire NATO air force couldn't fully suppress Serbian air defense, why would this situation be any different?

Just as scud hunting went poorly for the US, there is no real way for Russia to fully suppress Ukranian air defense.

As such using their highly valuable TU-160 on bombing runs is almost unthinkable for Russia against Ukraine, they are too expensive and vurnuable for a job that even TOS-1 can perform. At most Russia will continue using those bomber platforms like they've been using them, lobbing stand off weapons far in the rear.

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FOABs are means of demoralization and less about being as effective as other types like TOS-1 or MRLS barraging some area. Just imagine one non nuclear weapon with similiar blast radius as small tactical thermonuclear bomb wipes out a front. This will be feeled and seen on media all over the place. If you on the receiving end, you will realize even in your arms chair general position that you have nothing to achieve on the front.

The current ukro "offensive" was a very good opportunity to do exactly that, however I am still puzzled as why develop FOABs and having like 10 good opportunities to use it and demoralize your opponent and not use it.

Phead128 said:

Ukraine is not willing to negotiate on territorial concessions. My prediction is that Putin will drag this war over the winter (+ gas/oil cuts) which will force the Europeans to force the Ukrainians to the negotiation table.... which leads to two possible outcomes:

• If oil/gas strategy is successful, then final settlement will be Russia withdraws to Feb 23rd borders in Donbass/Crimea, Ukraine pledges neutrality, Ukraine recognizes Crimea as Russia, Ukraine gets some security guarantees from Europe/others, and then few months later, DPR/LNR gets referendum and annexed by Russia.
• If oil/gas strategy is unsuccessful to force Europeans to force Ukrainians to negotiate, then Putin will unilaterally declare victory after DPR is liberated, and annex existing occupied territory.

It takes time for Russia to adapt to the new reality that China is head-and-shoulders above Russia in every single aspect except warhead count.

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Russia will seize its own security guarantees on the battlefield rather than trust a piece of paper.

Territorial concessions are small potato’s next to Putin’s true main prize - roll back of all western sanctions and return of all Russian assets stolen.

For that, they need the Euros to break ranks with the yanks, so they are forcing the Euros to take a long hard look at America’s true face as Americans profiteer while Europeans literally freeze over winter.

If literal piles of their own loved ones needlessly dying isn’t enough to wake the euros up from their American brainwashing, then they are truly lost to all hope and reason so Russia will bare the pain and continue to de-industrialise and depopulate the EU until they can no longer threaten Russia or the wider world again with their arrogant idiocy.

Black Shark said:

FOABs are means of demoralization and less about being as effective as other types like TOS-1 or MRLS barraging some area. Just imagine one non nuclear weapon with similiar blast radius as small tactical thermonuclear bomb wipes out a front. This will be feeled and seen on media all over the place. If you on the receiving end, you will realize even in your arms chair general position that you have nothing to achieve on the front.

The current ukro "offensive" was a very good opportunity to do exactly that, however I am still puzzled as why develop FOABs and having like 10 good opportunities to use it and demoralize your opponent and not use it.

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Probably because with the calibre of idiots in charge in the west, there is a real chance some blonde smoothbrain might mistaken FOAB for a nuke and freak out so much they start a real nuclear exchange.

Phead128 said:

If oil/gas strategy is successful, then final settlement will be Russia withdraws to Feb 23rd borders in Donbass/Crimea, Ukraine pledges neutrality, Ukraine recognizes Crimea as Russia, Ukraine gets some security guarantees from Europe/others, and then few months later, DPR/LNR gets referendum and annexed by Russia.

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That ship sailed long time algo. "Best" case scenario for Ukraine, the DNR/LPR become like Abkhazia in Georgia. At worst, they become Russian oblasts like Crimea.

Actually Ukrainians really have lower casualties in Kharkov region primarily because said region is mostly forest unlike Kherson steppe with rare strips of trees between fields. It makes harder to spot light infantry and lowers efficiency of artillery and aviation.

plawolf said:

Russia will seize its own security guarantees on the battlefield rather than trust a piece of paper.

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I agree. Only regime change can permanently secure Russia's security interests, a piece of paper needs to be constantly backed by potential threat of military intervention again, so only a short-term solution. If the Kiev regime is crippled/landlocked, it still a thorn in Russia's side due to Western aid and NATO armaments. It's best to go through the pain of regime change to eliminate the NATO proxy once and for all. After this war, there is no way NATO would ever extend membership to Ukraine anyways (as long as Putin and hardliners are in power), so a neutrality treaty is quite redundant. NATO could salami-slice again in few decades when Putin is no longer in power, so Putin should secure a long-term solution to ensure Ukraine is within Russia's sphere of influence.

plawolf said:

Territorial concessions are small potato’s next to Putin’s true main prize - roll back of all western sanctions and return of all Russian assets stolen.

For that, they need the Euros to break ranks with the yanks, so they are forcing the Euros to take a long hard look at America’s true face as Americans profiteer while Europeans literally freeze over winter.

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I don't think Europe would ever lift sanctions on Russia, unless Putin's successor cucks themselves to Western interests..... BUT I can totally see Europe importing oil/gas from third-parties which are in fact Russian-oil/gas that is mixed with other national sources and overlooking the admixture to make ends meet. These middle-men will make insane profit while these two blocs have a pissing contest.

Sinnavuuty said:

That sounds like a joke.

The reality of the offensive:

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View attachment 97153
View attachment 97154

In addition to that Intel Slava posted a few hours ago the high demand for ambulances in Kharkiv, which means that the AFU manpower has suffered a lot of losses, as I recall, the governor of the region said that he would have to transfer these dead and wounded to other oblasts, but it's not like pro-Ukraine channels are going to publicize it.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1567572969274195969

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What these images show is that there is logistics installed to treat the wounded, with the support of vehicles and with a facility for this purpose near the combat lines.

And we realize the desperation of the Russians to demonstrate victories, when they show as recent an attack on pontoons that took place in mid-July... It seems that positive things are scarce that we should recycle images

Here a pro-Russian channel using the images on July 27