The War in the Ukraine

Latest from Rybar. Shevchenkove still in Russian hand, although AFU will probably attempt another attack towards it soon.
Compared to Rybar's last update it seems Zalyman south of Balakleya is back in Russian hands, although around here there's been a push by AFU and they seem to have captured two villages.

First video confirming the use of the Excalibur 155mm round in combat with the M777A2 howitzer by the Ukrainian Army . We have to mention that waiting the arrival of the German donated Vulcano 155mm ammunition there's nothing more modern that this system in the Ukrainian theater

A long and interesting article in Тhe Washington Post about the pre-war diplomacy between Russia, Ukraine, the US and the EU.

There are quite a few interesting moments.


Road to war: U.S. struggled to convince allies, and Zelensky, of risk of invasion

IMO. I don’t see how this offensive is good for Ukraine regardless of any gains they make. At some point, their manpower and material is going to be exhausted and they will be on the defensive once more but with a lot less resources to defend it. If the Pro-Ukrainians here believe whatever Ukraine says then you will have to believe Zelensky statement 1-2 months ago about Russia having the advantage in manpower. Tho maybe it will be soften when you have the next human shields on October 1st when females will be drafted in.

FriedButter said:

IMO. I don’t see how this offensive is good for Ukraine regardless of any gains they make. At some point, their manpower and material is going to be exhausted and they will be on the defensive once more but with a lot less resources to defend it. If the Pro-Ukrainians here believe whatever Ukraine says then you will have to believe Zelensky statement 1-2 months ago about Russia having the advantage in manpower. Tho maybe it will be soften when you have the next human shields on October 1st when females will be drafted in.

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Ukraine had 7 million people fit for military service in 2015 and 470,000 were reaching military service annually since 2021. Given the draft, they are not going to run out of cannon fodder. That is why the elites in London, Washington, etc are so gleeful.

Against that is some 150,000 professional Russian soldiers. Even if the Russians kill 10 Ukrainians for every Russian, they will still run out of volunteers before the Ukrainians run out of draftees.

It is a continuation of the tragedy.

In the Ukrainian Gambit (2008) the last step (2021-) has been the bet on sanctions. The Kiev regime attacks Ukrainians of Russian origin. Russia strikes back. A rain of economic sanctions arrives. The Russian economy collapses, and so Ukraine wins "the great war with Russia" and as a prize enters NATO. This delirium is seen in the (surprising ? striking ? mind-blowing ?) interview with Oleksei Arestovich from March 2019:

gadgetcool5 said:

Ukraine had 7 million people fit for military service in 2015 and 470,000 were reaching military service annually since 2021. Given the draft, they are not going to run out of cannon fodder. That is why the elites in London, Washington, etc are so gleeful.

Against that is some 150,000 professional Russian soldiers. Even if the Russians kill 10 Ukrainians for every Russian, they will still run out of volunteers before the Ukrainians run out of draftees.

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Then are you choosing to cherry pick your own pro-Ukrainian information? Zelensky said it himself that Russia has the advantage in manpower.

gadgetcool5 said:

Ukraine had 7 million people fit for military service in 2015

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2022 Ukraine is very different from 2015 Ukraine. In 2019 before the pandemic Ukraine's population was down to 37 million not counting rebel areas. No doubt Ukraine's population is much less than 37 million by now because of pandemic and war.

TongHua said:

2022 Ukraine is very different from 2015 Ukraine. In 2019 before the pandemic Ukraine's population was down to 37 million not counting rebel areas. No doubt Ukraine's population is much less than 37 million by now because of pandemic and war.

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The number of people fit for combat means nothing if the result is only more death. The past few weeks are clearly horrible, the number of families brokens just by the offensive in Kherson will be probably astonishing. Russia are just eating them up, equipments and souls. All of that for nothing, the line didn't change, it's just a bloody status quo. Grinding people down and creating a morbid a destroyed landscape. Politically, giving up and letting Russia creating their Novo-Russia is bad looking but for civilians and civilians turned soldiers it could be salvation. The percentage of civilians that left Ukraine to never return is probably high, very high. Lot of them have left to Russia before 2022, will they ever return to rebuild Luhansk and Dornbass ? I'm not even sure. The decline had started way before the war.