The War in the Ukraine

baykalov

baykalov

Senior Member
Registered Member
Some people in this thread don't seem to understand that even if Russia defeats Ukraine tomorrow, the sanctions against Russia will not be lifted. This has been repeatedly stated by European leaders. There have been sanctions imposed against Russia since the annexation of Crimea, which have not yet been lifted.

Putin must continue to weaken the EU by prolonging the war in Ukraine in order to try to remove the sanctions.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

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Registered Member
tankphobia said:
You are seeing this relationship from China's lense, the other side would not feel the same way. Russia was able to leverage its trade with Europe such that in 2014 it came out relatively OK. Even now it wields the energy hammer as it's main weapon against the West. It has no such leverages with China.
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Russia must have judged that the opinion of Europeans was not important compared to achieving it's goals in Ukraine. Russia does not have the capability to leverage EU against China because there is no situation where an anti-China EU would be Russia friendly. This has been shown since 2014 where EU still enacted sanctions on Russia. Rising hostility towards China after 2017 did not improve Russian standing and in fact dragged Russia in as an "autocratic power". Their "white Christian" card didn't work.

Since the "white Christian" card and "energy" cards are the only non military leverage they have with EU, and both failed, what do they have to lose?
 
sheogorath

sheogorath

Major
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tankphobia said:
Look at the relationship of Russia with every single countries within its sphere of influence, would you call any of them a fair partnership?
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Unless you try to bring NATO in, it seems usually fairly balanced and fair. Russia has stayed out of its neighbors most often than not, last time I checked, except when they decide to NATO-ise their relationship with Russia.

Georgia was left mostly alone until they got cocky with promises of NATO membership. Same with Ukraine, which had quite a few pro-Western government in the early 2000's, until the coup happened.

You keep trying to frame Russia's relationships from a Western point of view, where countries like the US, France or the UK refuse to be junior partners on anything, particularly in their former colonies or backyards. The US would rather nuke South America rather than have them play second fiddle in any of their politics.
 
R

reservior dogs

Junior Member
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tankphobia said:
You are seeing this relationship from China's lense, the other side would not feel the same way. Russia was able to leverage its trade with Europe such that in 2014 it came out relatively OK. Even now it wields the energy hammer as it's main weapon against the West. It has no such leverages with China.

Look at the relationship of Russia with every single countries within its sphere of influence, would you call any of them a fair partnership?
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The Chinese are not trying to overthrow Russia with color revolution or to arm its neighbors. Security always trumps economics, or in this case, who will Russia be the junior partner of.
 
Bellum_Romanum

Bellum_Romanum

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sheogorath said:
Unless you try to bring NATO in, it seems usually fairly balanced and fair. Russia has stayed out of its neighbors most often than not, last time I checked, except when they decide to NATO-ise their relationship with Russia.

Georgia was left mostly alone until they got cocky with promises of NATO membership. Same with Ukraine, which had quite a few pro-Western government in the early 2000's, until the coup happened.

You keep trying to frame Russia's relationships from a Western point of view, where countries like the US, France or the UK refuse to be junior partners on anything, particularly in their former colonies or backyards. The US would rather nuke South America rather than have them play second fiddle in any of their politics.
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because @tankphobia operates from a western prism full stop. The way he meanders on and on about Russia hating to be a junior partner of China etc...have been spewed left right and center by western analysts since the time of Brezenski, and yet here we are.
 
Bellum_Romanum

Bellum_Romanum

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manqiangrexue said:
Really?? You don't see the "offensive" getting smaller and smaller? Compare the map from your original post to this one.

No, HIMARS is a game complicator. FOAB+Tu-160 on Kiev is a game changer. Besides, according to you, Putin was getting ready to give up and beg the West for forgiveness months ago, right? Then the game changer arrived and that hasn't happened? Doesn't look like a very good change for the West...

Well, those are dreams because nothing there looks successful for Ukraine and you say the tide has changed so many times, it's a whirlpool by now. Russia can't be defeated and it hasn't used its real strength yet, continuing, to everyone's annoyance, to play with Ukraine when it should end it. That is the tide and from day 1 to today, it never changed.

Ah, so you know that it's true when Putin says that Russia has not even yet begun to fight. Ukraine is exhausted and NATO is broke. Imagine when Russia makes a real effort.
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Just say Ukraine is winning and Russia is losing and all will be well with western cultists. These folks don't seem to live in the real world but on social media sphere like twitter, reddit.. Pathetic really. Losing means you're taking territories, and winning means you're losing territories with your economies experiencing historic record inflation, rationing of electricity, going back to burning wood for heat etc..These people are simply delusional beyond reason.

These folks can't wait for cyborg Zuckerberg to unveil Meta's metaverse where they can own the Chinese, the Russians and others...where the literal suspension of reality is replaced by their make belief world in which their idiocy reign supreme along with their countless genders, and having Greta Thunberg as their meta leader...
 
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ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
kokole said:
Some people in this thread don't seem to understand that even if Russia defeats Ukraine tomorrow, the sanctions against Russia will not be lifted. This has been repeatedly stated by European leaders. There have been sanctions imposed against Russia since the annexation of Crimea, which have not yet been lifted.

Putin must continue to weaken the EU by prolonging the war in Ukraine in order to try to remove the sanctions.
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As Putin reorient his economy toward the east, they will never revert back to the former status quo with Europe as the trust is completely gone. Those economic infrastructure linkages will take time to build so within 3 years time, Europe can still saves themselves by changing policy BUT knowing their attitude, an unconditional surrender of Russia is there prerequisite before starting a negotiation which is insane. :(
 
T

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
tankphobia said:
A war with Ukraine limits options for Russia. They are only allied with China because they have a mutual enemy in the West, Russia has never been and never will be a staunch ally of China simply because of geography. They are competing within Russia's sphere of influence in central Asia as we speak even as the war goes on. (Kazakhstan/Uzbekistan for example)
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Russia and China are far closer to each other today than China and US in the 1970s. Just think about Taiwan, it is not even a sphere of influence, but China's territory.

tankphobia said:
Before the war Russia could counter-balance the economic dominance of China with European trade partners but now that door has closed with the war and Russia is stuck with China/India as its sole major trading partner going forward. Would it not be preferable for the War to end as soon as possible such that Russia can at least retain some semblance of control over its relationship with China? At least I believe Russia would hate to be the junior in this relationship.
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Please, don't sing to the tune of the west "Russia China is suspicious of one another". The two are not married, but certainly much more friendlier than each one with the west.

Remind you of the "Suez canal crisis". The US stabbed the UK and France at the back, how did the UK get back the balance with US? Or UK enjoys the even more US dominated relationship? UK certainly wanted to maintain a more equal relationship with US, but. At least China did nothing to Russia as US did to UK.

The lesson is that 1st, one maintains its position according to its economy size and stay with the partner that gives the best return, 2nd, one does not over do anything that exceeds its capability, 3rd, one does not get feelings like "hate" or wish in the calculation.
 
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Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
ansy1968 said:
As Putin reorient his economy toward the east, they will never revert back to the former status quo with Europe as the trust is completely gone. Those economic infrastructure linkages will take time to build so within 3 years time, Europe can still saves themselves by changing policy BUT knowing their attitude, an unconditional surrender of Russia is there prerequisite before starting a negotiation which is insane. :(
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Lots of people doesn't comprehend that more people are living outside North America and EU than in... and Putin have a vast market for Russian economy to work with. Euro value is lower that American dollar right now, Europe economy is crumbling big time. Maybe it's better to look elsewhere anyway.
 
G

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Atomicfrog said:
Lots of people doesn't comprehend that more people are living outside North America and EU than in... and Putin have a vast market for Russian economy to work with. Euro value is lower that American dollar right now, Europe economy is crumbling big time. Maybe it's better to look elsewhere anyway.
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The problem is Russia gets little in return from these countries since it mostly imports technology or high technology items. That is a problem Russians have always had. Russia's main issue with these sanctions is getting cut out from Western tech. Russian researchers have basically been banned at this point. And China is upholding this Western mandated research ban because they also do not want to be cut out.

China's internal economy and population is large enough to rival the EU and the US put together. But that is only when you do not consider you have the rest of the world basically brain draining into the Western research centers.
 
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