If you look at the war from the Ukrainian side, things are looking increasingly desperate. The counter offensive seems to be the act of a desperate nation. Sending your troops in open flatland with no cover. Many foot soldiers marching along a single tank when the enemy has many ways to shoot at you.
In Donbass things have indeed slowed to a grinding halt. This is all the more surprising when you consider how quickly Lysychansk fell. After the Russians shorten their defensive line which free up a lot of troops against a line that is hastily put up after the fall of Lysychansk. Something does not add up. Even if you accept that the Russians are more averse to losses after Lysychansk, they should be able to take towns much smaller than Lysychansk quicker. Instead of interpreting this as Russians running out of steam as many in the West, I believe this is a deliberate choice by the Russians to slow down the war. I don't know the reasons for sure, but can speculate that it could be linked to geopolitics with Europe or maybe the Ukrainians are now trying to negotiate an end to the conflict.
If no negotiated settlement (surrender) from Ukraine, I believe the Russians have the ability and motivation to press on. They should have no problem taking Donbass. Once Donbass is taken, they will eventually push to take all Southern Ukraine and all territories East of the Dnipro river. At this point, the newly formed republics have what it takes to handle a much weakened Ukraine that is an economic basket case, landlocked and depopulated. I think Russia will declare victory at that point and go home.
