The War in the Ukraine

Maikeru said:

BBC picks up the NK arms story - and apparently Iranian drones not terribly reliable. Who'da thunk?

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Click to expand...

Temstar said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1567137158426759168

Looks like AFU is making a move around Kharkov as predicted, progress unknown yet. Russian telegram channels are saying it's going about as well as they are in Kherson (ie not very).

Click to expand...

Jingle Bells said:

I think it is more plausible than Iranian drones. North Korea already ended their diplomatic relation with Ukraine (I heard this earlier, didn't verify if it's still true), and they are already under a lot of sanctions from the US. I don't see why the NK would NOT want to seize the opportunity to supply Russia with munitions in exchange for some oil and gas, if not other products like fertilizers/chemicals. I think it would be a low hanging fruit.

This is especially true when both South Korea and Japan seems to be reluctant to really escalate tension with North Korea. For North Korea, it would be a better alternative way to piss off the US, without detonating a nuke or fire off a ICBM (both of which would greatly provoke SK and Japan).

So I think if NK is offered by Russia this opportunity to be their munition supplier, they will certainly take it.

Click to expand...

Sheleah said:

Great punishment to the invaders

Click to expand...

Sheleah said:

There is talk of another Ukrainian offensive, the Russians flee to Balakleya out of "good will"

Click to expand...

Sinnavuuty said:

Confirmed by members of the Zelensky government themselves.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Honestly I think the story of the UAVs sold to Russia is even more true when it was confirmed that Iran will receive the Su-35s previously purchased by Egypt.

Click to expand...

reservior dogs said:

First, a little lesson about geopolitics. A global hegemon such as the U.S. does not tolerate any power that is not completely under our thumb. Even for our allies like Europe, we listen to private phone conversations of their leaders. We control politicians like the Green Party in Germany to do our bidding.

Naturally we would not tolerate a country as big as Russia. Even if they adapt the U.S. constitution, they are simply too big and powerful amongst European states. The ideal outcome would be to break them up into many smaller nations. Indeed, even if you accept that Ukraine should be allow to join EU, there is no reason to arm them to the extend that we did and to push them to fight the break away republics except to provoke Russia. In case you think Ukraine did this all on its own, you have to ask yourself a similar question, why is Ukraine doing this against a much more powerful neighbor? Why is it gambling its own existence when there was already a Minsk II agreement signed? Clearly, this was against the national interests of Ukraine to provoke Russia. Someone else is pulling the string of the Ukrainian government.

Putin tolerated this in 2014 because most of the Russian gas exports were to Europe. If they invade in 2014, they will be fighting Europe alone and cutoff from the West, their economy will go into free fall. However, Covid19 changed all that. The weak response from the West in general on Covid led to a free fall in our relative standing compared to China. The turning point was the dress down of Anthony Blinken in Alaska by the Chinese diplomats. That any nation on earth would talk to a leader of the U.S. this way was unprecedented. This means if the Russians fights back, they can count on the help of the Chinese. If NATO gets involved militarily, and the Russians are at the blink of falling, they can count on the Chinese to back them militarily as the China do not want to see NATO north of its own border. If they are winning the war, they can count on China to back them economically by continuing to buy their exports (in fact, China has dramatically increased the purchase of gas and oil from Russia since the war). The relative power between the U.S. and China has recently shifted enough that China can say no to any U.S. pressure not to do normal business with Russia. In the past, the Chinese abided by the U.S. wishes to cap the export of oil from Iran, for example.

Further, the longer term picture for the Russian economy would not be bleak once this war is over. If they are isolated from Europe, a further coupling with China will allow their economy to continue to thrive. There are many things that the Chinese can offer the Russians that the Europeans cannot, and vise versa. A Europe that is already near economic stagnation and will soon go into recession are not in the position to embargo Russia. The Saudis, once under the thumb of the U.S., have had a fallout with the U.S. due to a number of issues. The U.S. shale industry in direct competition with them is one. This means the U.S. cannot count on OPEC to ramp up production to offset Russian oil.

Putin did this to secure the future of Russia, to ensure that Russia is not going to be turned into a puppet of the U.S. and be broken up once he leaves the scene. He has overwhelming support of the Russian people. Once the war is over, not only will Ukraine cease to be a threat to Russia, all the other small yelping dogs like Lithuania and Poland will fall in line. If the U.S. cannot help a country like Ukraine, you must wonder if push comes to shove, would the U.S. be able to help Poland. The war would also silence any fifth column inside Russia that want to help the West subdue Russia and break it up. The security situation for Russia will dramatically improve. Europe can increase its military budget all it wants, but it will never be in a situation to invade Russia, so in the longer run, it actually weakens Europe. Security always trumps economics, this is especially true if there is an alternative to the current economic arrangement which would also allow your economy to thrive.

Click to expand...

plawolf said:

When it comes to lethal weapons/munitions from China, Russia is too proud to ask, and China is too practical to offer.

Given that this is a real fight and not a cakewalk against a hopelessly outmatch opponent, we have already had many real life examples of covert weapons and munitions supplies being rumbled due to battlefield captures. The latest example are shells from Pakistan going to Ukraine.

If China were to supply Russia with inventory shells, it will only be a matter of time until they are similarly exposed.

Well, at least when it comes to stuff that’s easily identifiable as new and Chinese. I would not be surprised if China has already sent back a lot of the Krasnopol shells and PGMs they purchased from Russia, for ‘routine maintenance’ of course. If the Russians discovers some sort of ‘defect or issue’ with those stocks, and very generously decided to dispose of those old stocks and refund China, or provide newly manufactured replacements many years down the line, well I’m sure China will be very grateful. And if those shells and missiles/bombs should find their way to Ukraine, well firstly, good luck proving it. And even if it can be proven that these were originally sold to China, well China has all the paperwork to prove they were sent back to Russia to be safely disposed of, and are just as shocked that the Russians didn’t do as they promised!

What China could also do is maybe similar to what NATO are offering former Warsaw Pact member countries to replace whatever soviet era stuff they send with newly manufactured replacements. So China can help Russia indirectly by sending on replacement stocks to NK (much less likely in the case of Iran, at least until they normalise relations with the Saudis and rest of the ME) to allow NK to export much of their current and older inventories.

Although all of these ‘reports’ just seems to be minimally changed copy pasta of all the other stories we have been bombarded with since the very start of this war about how the Russians are supposed to be running low on everything from men to tanks to PGMs to cruise missiles to washing machines. I will believe it once I see Iranian drones and NK MLRS confirmed on the battlefields of Ukraine.

Click to expand...

solarz said:

Well all that is only necessary if the Russian industry can't keep up with the demands of the war. So far I've seen no indication of this being the case, aside from the usual Western propaganda.

Click to expand...