The War in the Ukraine

Pmichael said:

How would the Russian MoD know if the Russian forces are retreating. This thread is so bizarre.

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What? Do you think Russian forces are just hanging out having local duels and firefights independent of any centralized command structure?

The guys at the Russian MOD knows what's happening on the ground better than any of us ever will. They have communication with guys on the ground and are collecting intel constantly from various different platforms

Sinnavuuty said:

Russia is attacking the AFU the contact lines in Kherson

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564931663427244035

View attachment 96513
Yesterday:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564782483433979906

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564739323186094081

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It's open fields out there, it's all the way to Kherson without stopping or dying in the fields. Russian don't do it before practically nothing exist to defend anymore, why Ukrainian still trying it, conscript that don't know they will die or they will die anyway if they don't obey ???

IAEA mission arrives at Zaporizhzhia. Wonder if the Ukranians will try to shell the nuclear plant again with them there.


EDIT: According to ASB, they are indeed shelling the plant again.

Just to exemplify what happened in the last 18 hours.

First, the Ukrainians attacked on a large scale in the north and south, with the Russians retreating to two points quickly. What happened next is what we see seeing the Russians doing since the beginning of the war, the Feigned Retreat. The Russians would already be reoccupying the positions and some of the videos above would be Russians passing through Ukrainian wreckage caused by artillery or aviation.

Feigned Retreat


After the tactic, reoccupying the ground after the artillery has done the work.


In the lines below, they are stable. It is one of the few spots where there is frequent direct fighting, apart from some areas in the north.

It is mentioned that the Russians built minefields where the Ukrainians made the offensives, stopping it at the beginning in the initial places of the previous ones, which can signal a total breakdown of the AFU's counterintelligence.

Another video of ambulances in convoy to Odessa. This here is a clear indication that the offensive, which was the biggest that Ukraine produced, went very wrong:
There are sources out there citing more than 63 tanks and 58 IFVs destroyed, in addition to Su-25, Su-24 and two MiG-29 that would have been shot down. This transfer of ambulances to Odessa, must be injured who were already in hospitals in Mykolaiv, which would be overcrowded.

Sinnavuuty said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564602045063204864

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My mistake.

It looks like premature celebration by the Russian side as the Ukrainian Kherson offensive continues to advance. The Ukrainians have reached deep within enemy lines in Kherson Oblast and are on the verge of cutting off Russian forces at Davydov Brod.


Given how long this offensive was telegraphed by Ukraine, the swift collapse of the Russian lines in this area is virtually clownish. Also, unless the Russian take a major city by the end of September, they will have suffered their longest period of the war without taking any major city, exceeding the drought between the fall of Kherson (early April) and the fall of Mauripol (late May). It seems the offensive is stalling. The very fact that we are talking about Ukrainian offensives advances rather than Russian ones now is telling.

gadgetcool5 said:

It looks like premature celebration by the Russian side as the Ukrainian Kherson offensive continues to advance. The Ukrainians have reached deep within enemy lines in Kherson Oblast and are on the verge of cutting off Russian forces at Davydov Brod.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564980858196578304

Given how long this offensive was telegraphed by Ukraine, the swift collapse of the Russian lines in this area is virtually clownish.

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Ukrainian showed that at least they didn't stop in the middle of a field and turned back. Maybe they have more than conscripts with low morale in that offensive. But their only supply line is a pontoon on the river... will they swim back if something bad happen ?

The Russian will let them all through in that narrow advance (how many km?) and they will close the bridge and annihilate them with attack helicopters and artillery most probably. They will just retreat ground troops like always and bomb the hell out of the Ukrainians and take back ground. All that manpower that Ukraine throwed in will be grinded for nothing and they will ask for more.

gadgetcool5 said:

It looks like premature celebration by the Russian side as the Ukrainian Kherson offensive continues to advance. The Ukrainians have reached deep within enemy lines in Kherson Oblast and are on the verge of cutting off Russian forces at Davydov Brod.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564980858196578304

Given how long this offensive was telegraphed by Ukraine, the swift collapse of the Russian lines in this area is virtually clownish. Also, unless the Russian take a major city by the end of September, they will have suffered their longest period of the war without taking any major city, exceeding the drought between the fall of Kherson (early April) and the fall of Mauripol (late May). It seems the offensive is stalling. The very fact that we are talking about Ukrainian offensives advances rather than Russian ones now is telling.

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There are two ways to look at that. Sure, Ukrainians might be close to cutting off the Russians in that corner, but it seems to me that the Ukrainian corridor is incredibly vulnerable to cutoff itself, even more so than the Russians getting cut off.

gadgetcool5 said:

It looks like premature celebration by the Russian side as the Ukrainian Kherson offensive continues to advance. The Ukrainians have reached deep within enemy lines in Kherson Oblast and are on the verge of cutting off Russian forces at Davydov Brod.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564980858196578304

Given how long this offensive was telegraphed by Ukraine, the swift collapse of the Russian lines in this area is virtually clownish. Also, unless the Russian take a major city by the end of September, they will have suffered their longest period of the war without taking any major city, exceeding the drought between the fall of Kherson (early April) and the fall of Mauripol (late May). It seems the offensive is stalling. The very fact that we are talking about Ukrainian offensives advances rather than Russian ones now is telling.

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You don't see the shape of this blue "offensive?" Reminds me of cellular endocytosis, the red area is exactly what a T-cell looks like right before it eats something and the next phase is to close the gap behind it before the foreign object is trapped in the cell for digestion. The Ukrainian "offensive" is telling, along with Zelensky saying he will retake Crimea, the Russians have beat their brains to pulp. The Ukrainian Nazis aren't even grounded in reality anymore and are making reckless moves when being conservative and defensive was their best chance at holding out for as long as possible.

In Chinese history, the state of Zhao could resist Qin's attacks so long as they remained in defensive position aided by their city walls and terrain. But as the conflict dragged on, they became impatient and began to falsely believe themselves to be equal or even superior to their foes due to their so far successfull resistance. General Bai Qi of Qin became aware of this sentiment through his spies and to aid Zhao to its demise, feigned famine, illness, and weakness in his army and pretended to retreat. Zhao now wanted victory instead of stalemate, so they made the fatal decision to shift into offense and meet Qin on an even battlefield. The result was the total annihilation of Zhao forces by Qin.

gadgetcool5 said:

It looks like premature celebration by the Russian side as the Ukrainian Kherson offensive continues to advance. The Ukrainians have reached deep within enemy lines in Kherson Oblast and are on the verge of cutting off Russian forces at Davydov Brod.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564980858196578304

Given how long this offensive was telegraphed by Ukraine, the swift collapse of the Russian lines in this area is virtually clownish. Also, unless the Russian take a major city by the end of September, they will have suffered their longest period of the war without taking any major city, exceeding the drought between the fall of Kherson (early April) and the fall of Mauripol (late May). It seems the offensive is stalling. The very fact that we are talking about Ukrainian offensives advances rather than Russian ones now is telling.

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A small victory amid so many uncertainties present.

Did you see the rest of what Rybar said?

As a result of the attacks on Sukhoi and Andreevka headquarters, the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost at least thirty armored vehicle units. The pontoon corridor that crosses the steppe is littered with traces of a successful offensive. But the Armed Forces of Ukraine achieved their goal: having lost personnel and equipment in a suicide attack, they managed to line the corridor over the dead bodies.

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What is the cost of this victory? This advanced line had no losses? Can they sustain the advance? Can you consolidate the achievements on the ground? How will they receive supplies? Will they keep the offensive without supplies?

There are so many uncertainties.

gadgetcool5 said:

It looks like premature celebration by the Russian side as the Ukrainian Kherson offensive continues to advance. The Ukrainians have reached deep within enemy lines in Kherson Oblast and are on the verge of cutting off Russian forces at Davydov Brod.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564980858196578304

Given how long this offensive was telegraphed by Ukraine, the swift collapse of the Russian lines in this area is virtually clownish. Also, unless the Russian take a major city by the end of September, they will have suffered their longest period of the war without taking any major city, exceeding the drought between the fall of Kherson (early April) and the fall of Mauripol (late May). It seems the offensive is stalling. The very fact that we are talking about Ukrainian offensives advances rather than Russian ones now is telling.

Click to expand...

You advance like that and you are going to get the tentacle trapped and cut off by counterattacks. You need to move the entire front line like a curtain. That's why the Russians don't advance unless other points of attack succeeds so they can move the entire line altogether.