It looks like premature celebration by the Russian side as the Ukrainian Kherson offensive continues to advance. The Ukrainians have reached deep within enemy lines in Kherson Oblast and are on the verge of cutting off Russian forces at Davydov Brod.
Given how long this offensive was telegraphed by Ukraine, the swift collapse of the Russian lines in this area is virtually clownish. Also, unless the Russian take a major city by the end of September, they will have suffered their longest period of the war without taking any major city, exceeding the drought between the fall of Kherson (early April) and the fall of Mauripol (late May). It seems the offensive is stalling. The very fact that we are talking about Ukrainian offensives advances rather than Russian ones now is telling.
if this map is legit, just look at that shape. It's the move of an either completely suicidal army or one with so much overwhelming strength they can just keep the spearhead supplied through the super narrow corridor, its like what you would expect a PLA advance against ROC army would look like.
Either Russia is drawing them in and in that case Ukraine Army is utterly fucked and extremely stupid. They're going to lose everything inside that corridor which means 10 000s of men. That means, Russia could likely go unimpeded into Mykolaiv at the very least if not much further. Zelensky will then be proven to be a real clown, having sacrificed a perfectly viable defense and let his own countrymen be massacred. I'd even not be surprised if Zaluzhny (who reportedly was against the offensive) would just coup him.
Or Russian firepower is so poor that Ukraine can indeed break through there and go towards Kherson, in that case, Russia more or less showed they're even more useless than NK in the Korean war. In that case if Ukraine takes Kherson, China might as well take a far more hands on approach in dealing with Russia and the former USSR states. Either go all in and hard carry Russia with a new PVA, or let the Russians take a humiliating stalemate peace where less than 15% of Ukraine territory has been taken over and then start to turn Moscow into a direct economic and military protectorate, as this would be the only way to defend them against western coups and ensure at least some level of development is achieved within Russia.
Putin will certainly not have any political power to stop it if he fails this much.
I think this will be decisive battle of the Donbass war, whatever the outcome.
