The War in the Ukraine

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
Right now, the AFU is moving armored vehicles from the Bereznegovatoy side towards Davydov Brod. According to some data, the column has up to 70 units. Most likely, the AFU will now attempt to occupy Davydov Brod, establish an additional crossing at Belogorka and completely occupy the Andreevka-Lozovoe-Belogorka-Davydov Brod section along the Ingulets River. At the moment, Russian forces do not control Lozovoe, but there is nothing to control there - this is indeed a camp.

The AFU is using the same reserves that were amassed for the battle for Kherson. More precisely, the remnants of the reserves (in July-August a significant part of the forces were transferred to Soledar, Avdiivka and Vugledar).

I forgot to mention that in the two fighting areas tonight in Blagodatnoye and Olgino with Vysokopole, in both areas AFU armored vehicles are being transferred and in Olgino and Vysokopole they are preparing for massive bombing from the Ukrainian side. After the failure of the offensive, crowds of wounded AFU soldiers are being transported to hospitals in Mykolaiv. Doctors are reported to have been called in since the weekend, and volunteers are announcing the need for urgent blood donations for the injured via chats.

Interestingly, the AFU General Staff in the August 29 evening summary does not write a word about the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson. The AFU General Staff in the evening's report defiantly ignored the "successful attack on Kherson" which obviously did not develop as planned, and the tactical successes were disproportionate to the losses suffered.

Regarding the situation in the direction of Yuzhnobuzhsk, only the assault and offensive actions of Russian troops near Potemkino are reported. On the night of August 28-29, the AFU inflicted massive fire damage on Russian forces' reserves and military installations in Nova Kakhovka and Berislav. In the morning, the AFU launched a full-front counter-offensive, using the remaining armored reserves in the direction of Nikolaev-Krivoy Rog. In some areas, even an AFU company and half a dozen armored vehicles advanced. The AFU blocked Russian units on the southern outskirts of Olgino and Vysokopole with heavy fire. At least 10 units of Ukrainian military equipment were sent to this sector of the front. At the moment, the fighting continues, the AFU cannot advance any further, but the Russian military still cannot liquidate the enemy grouping.

In total, the offensive was carried out in five sectors:

Aleksandrovka-Kherson - the fight continues, stopping the AFU offensive in 2 out of 3 directions. The offensive developed in three directions: from Luparevo to Aleksandrovka and from Posad-Pokrovsky to Pravdino and Kherson. Luparevo's offensive was repulsed: the AFU retreated to the starting line after the loss of three tanks. After an attempted offensive along the Nikolaev-Kherson highway, a temporary occupation and the subsequent loss of Kiselevka, the AFU focused on inflicting fire damage on Russian forces' positions in Pravdino. The total number of Ukrainian formations participating in the attack is about a hundred people and about 20 armored vehicles. The AFU managed to temporarily occupy the village, but it later came under the control of Russian forces again. The battles for Pravdino continue. AFU support in this sector of the front was provided by Su-25 attack aircraft, in the middle of the day the AFU lost them.

Snigirevsky - interruption of the AFU offensive. The AFU attempted to counterattack in the direction of Blagodatny from the Nikolaev-Snigirevka highway and the fortified area at Pervomaisky. After the loss of two infantry and ten military fighting vehicles, the AFU retreated. Over Kiselevka, south of Pervomaisky, an AFU Mi-8 military transport helicopter was shot down, Ukrainian formations tried to work with machine guns installed inside the Mi-8 at Russian troop positions.

Andreevsky - the successful AFU offensive. The AFU managed to break through the defense of the DNR reservists and occupy the settlement of Sukhoi Stavok, located 4 km to the southeast. During the night and morning, the AFU continued to transfer equipment from the direction of Bereznegovatoy via ferry to Andreevka. Despite artillery and air strikes, the AFU managed to concentrate two shock fists near Lozova and Sukhoi Stavk. The AFU was able to transfer up to 20 units of equipment to the captured bridgehead, which have already been deployed to the Dry Stavok settlement. At the same time, the AFU launched an offensive towards Lozovoye (2 km northeast), more than 10 armored vehicles were deployed there. Russian forces are trying to destroy AFU equipment with aviation and artillery fire. Considering that Sukhoi Stavok is located in the bare steppe, without settling in Lozovoe and transferring a significant part of the reserves to the south, the BTG that entered Dry Stavok will become an easy target for artillery.

Dry Stavok is an 800 meter long village on the bare steppe, located in the Russian artillery destruction zone. Concentration in this direction from the point of view of the front is illogical, further advances threaten Ukrainian forces with serious losses. The night before, Ukrainian formations were already retreating into the forests along the Ingulets after inflicting fire damage. In the morning, the AFU was again trying to bring equipment to the village, which practically ceased to exist. Moving from Lozovoye and along the Andreevka-Belogorka road to the east seems more logical, on the side of Veliky Artakovo and Belogorka, the AFU has repeatedly tried to build pontoon crossings, and the expansion of the bridge on the south coast allows controlling a section of up to 6 kilometers wide. The bare steppe begins to the south, but the wooded shores along Veliky Artakovo and Belogorka will make it possible to concentrate more armored vehicles and transfer artillery. And so the expansion of control near Sukhoi Stavka would make sense.

Davydovo-Brodsky section - interruption of the AFU offensive. The use of artillery and aviation fire thwarted an AFU attempt to cross to the south bank of the Ingulets River. The Vysokopolsky section is the continuation of the AFU offensive. At midday, the AFU blocked with fire a group of troops from Russian forces stationed near the southern outskirts of Olgino and Vysokopole. In this direction, the Ukrainians deployed more than 10 armored vehicles. The fight goes on. Russian forces continue to destroy accumulated Ukrainian reserves with counter-battery fire, and have also tried unsuccessfully to expand the zone of control to Potemkino. From the east, at the turn of Lyubimovka - Mirolyubovka - Dobryanka, the AFU was unable to advance.

In the Odessa district, some sources report that the Ukrainians are preparing to transfer unused reserve units to Mykolaiv from the Odessa region that were kept in case of a Russian amphibious landing. Its objective is to replenish the lost manpower in the direction of Mykolaiv. Calls are being sent through Ukrainian chat rooms to donate blood. In Nikolaev and Krivoy Rog, hospitals are full.

At around 5-6 in the morning, the Ukrainians again launched powerful missile attacks on the bridge and crossings at Kherson.

Russian forces managed to partially destroy the AFU armored vehicles transferred to Sukhoi Stavok. The AFU was forced to retreat to a wooded area to regroup. Confident control of the AFU remains in Andreevka and Lozovoe (a village under AFU control) on the banks of the River Ingulets. Dry Stavok is now in the gray area. Russian forces continue to inflict fire damage on Ukrainians with artillery and aviation forces.

Information on the Nikolaev-Kherson road became clearer, the AFU managed to get to Kiselevka, but they were immediately thrown back to Soldatsky. Near Olgino and Vysokopole, Russian units are holding the line but are still isolated. The AFU cannot advance any further, Russian units cannot completely destroy the advance of the Ukrainian grouping due to isolation. The Kirovo (Tavriyskoye) front line north of Aleksandrovka was marked under the control of Russian units.
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
Posad-Pokrovsky and Aleksandrovsky sections at noon on the 30th of August:
At night, Russian units managed to push the enemy back to the Blagodatnoye (Petrovskoye) - Pravdino line, just 4 km from Posad-Pokrovsky. To the northeast, AFU units reached Lyubomirovka, but could not advance. According to preliminary information, an AFU Mi-8 helicopter was shot down.

Novogrigorivka: most likely, the enemy tried to use the machine guns installed on board to find out the positions of Russian forces in Lyubomirovka.

Fighting continues in the agricultural area of Soldatskoe village 3 km southwest of Posad-Pokrovsky. All attempts to advance on Pravdino were repulsed, airborne units held the line. Information on an advance for Chervony Podol (Mirne) has not been confirmed.

On the part of the AFU, they tried to develop an offensive against Aleksandrovka, forcing the recovery channel. At the same time, an attempt was made to advance through the dam to Aleksandrovka from the west. Both attempts were repulsed.

For a day and a half of fighting, Russian forces did not allow the AFU to advance towards Kherson and confidently entrenched themselves 4 km from Posad-Pokrovsky. If the Ukrainian side lost the initiative and had strength, now would be the ideal time to launch a counter-offensive and expand the buffer zone by capturing Posad-Pokrovsky and Stepova Dolina. But the AFU offensive is not yet over, although the intensity is waning.

Ukraine cites an attack in the style of the Battle of Rzhev, these fools have no understanding of military history. Judging by the scale, it was the so-called "Counter-attack on Kherson" failed, during which the Ukrainian army suffered heavy losses. Their battle formations were forced to advance into a minefield under a barrage of fire from artillery, mortars, aircraft and tanks from Russian forces.

Russian artillery worked at night in the direction of Nikolaev-Kherson, the barrel of a self-propelled gun was ripped out. The AFU is assembling strike forces in front of Nikolaev and Krivoy Rog. It looks like in the next few days they will try to break through the front again. The Russians are ready and waiting. Preparing attacks to anticipate. Interesting news is that British intelligence believes that Russia has changed command and control of troops in southern Ukraine.

Since August 29, the AFU has intensified artillery fire on the front lines in southern Ukraine. Ukrainian forces continue to obstruct Russian troop logistics with long-range precision strikes. At the same time, it is still impossible to say exactly how far the Ukrainian offensive has progressed. However, since the beginning of August, Russia has made significant efforts to strengthen its positions on the west bank of the Dnieper near Kherson.

The 49th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District of the Russian Federation is likely reinforced by the forces of the 35th Combined Arms Army of the Eastern Military District. However, most units around Kherson are undermanned and dependent on vulnerable supply lines via ferries and floating bridges across the Dnieper.

This integration of units from the two military districts is indicative of a significant reorganization of Russian forces in Ukraine. There is a strong possibility that Russia has improved the management of several semi-independent operational commands whose actions were the cause of their failures at the start of the invasion. If Ukraine manages to launch long counter-offensive operations, the cohesion of this structure is likely to be a key factor in the sustainability of Russian defense in the south.

It is also worth noting that despite the failure of the enemy during yesterday's battles, the Russians also had quite large losses in dead and wounded. The men who stopped attempts to break through Ukraine's mechanized formations and waited for help endured a lot to keep the defensive front together.
 

TongHua

New Member
Registered Member
The longer Kherson is out of Ukrainian hands, the harder it is for Ukraine to take Kherson. As an example, Assad vowed to retake Raqqa and was never able to do it.

The newly supplied 200 Polish and Czech T-72 tanks are the backbone of Kherson counter offensive. They should be able to last a while, a week or two, before their strength is exhausted in the Kherson battle.
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
The longer Kherson is out of Ukrainian hands, the harder it is for Ukraine to take Kherson. As an example, Assad vowed to retake Raqqa and was never able to do it.

The newly supplied 200 Polish and Czech T-72 tanks are the backbone of Kherson counter offensive. They should be able to last a while, a week or two, before their strength is exhausted in the Kherson battle.
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Other sources indicate that the ukrainians are activating the reserves, just 24 hours after they started the offensive. Only in a few stretches, especially around Bilozerka, that the russians captured. On the other fronts, the russians retreat and throw artillery. Apparently, the ukrainians are using absolutely everything they have in this offensive, if it goes wrong, the chance of collapse on the rest of the fronts is almost certain.

Several ambulances are arriving in Odessa, apparently because of AFU casualties. If it is true that hospitals in Mykolaiv are overcrowded, Ukrainians may have already lost something equivalent to a brigade in 24 hours.
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These UCAV have great range and flight time. Only these can hunt down long range artillery like HIMARS which usually operate 40 to 50 km from the front compared to 5 to 10 km from the front as in the case of M777.
Yep
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
The number of soldiers is estimated at about 12 thousand, which is critically small for the development of success.
According to Russia's MoD,, during the Kherson counteroffensive, Kyiv lost more than 1,200 people (a full-fledged regiment),
So they lost 10% of their offensive troops in a single day? Seems this counteroffensive is going well for Ukraine, they should keep it up for a total of 10 days imo..
 

reservior dogs

Junior Member
Registered Member
So they lost 10% of their offensive troops in a single day? Seems this counteroffensive is going well for Ukraine, they should keep it up for a total of 10 days imo..
If the Russians are referring to the number of Ukrainians dead, you have to add a factor for the wounded. Usually 3/1 wounded to dead. That brings us to 4800 taken out of action.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
So they lost 10% of their offensive troops in a single day? Seems this counteroffensive is going well for Ukraine, they should keep it up for a total of 10 days imo..

I don't think you fight an offensive until you completely run out of people like zero. If the brigade or battalion drops down to 50% or 60% of its original strength, it should be wisely withdrawn from battle.
 

Pmichael

Junior Member
So they lost 10% of their offensive troops in a single day? Seems this counteroffensive is going well for Ukraine, they should keep it up for a total of 10 days imo..
How would the Russian MoD know if the Russian forces are retreating. This thread is so bizarre.
 

Tootensky

Junior Member
Registered Member
If the Russians are referring to the number of Ukrainians dead, you have to add a factor for the wounded. Usually 3/1 wounded to dead. That brings us to 4800 taken out of action.
Imo that's not exactly accurate. 3:1 wounded to dead ratio might be accurate long term, but right now it's just what Russians reported as immediate casualties. This doesn't take into account soldiers who, for example, won't make it to a field hospital, or the ones who'll die on the operating table, which Russians can't reliably know and report.

Russians reported 1200 killed, but it doesn't seem right to assume that this means 3600 wounded. If of all the wounded 800 die, that's 2000 killed, and suddenly the original number of wounded (which Russians can't know) jumps to 6000, meaning 8000 total casualties. That's almost twice the number. 3:1 ratio might be accurate in hindsight, weeks and months down the line, when the wounded are out of immediate danger. Immediately after/during the operation, it could be 5:1, or 6:1, and we'd have no way of knowing.
 
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