The War in the Ukraine

Sinnavuuty

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Frente Kherson-Mykolaiv

According to Russia's MoD,, during the Kherson counteroffensive, Kyiv lost more than 1,200 people (a full-fledged regiment), 48 T-72M1 tanks, 46 infantry fighting vehicles of various modifications (including the Dutch YPR-765), 37 other armored vehicles and at least two Su-25 aircraft.

The Units of the 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine arrived from Mukachevo (Transcarpathian region) to carry out the operation from western Ukraine. Up to 70% of the losses were suffered by the 21st and 36th separate motorized rifle battalions, as well as rear units, which were destroyed by long-range artillery, including the Smerch MLRS.

The number of soldiers is estimated at about 12 thousand, which is critically small for the development of success. The AFU do not yet have a second echelon and reserves, including equipment, in this area, and this runs counter to the statements of the Ukrainian leadership about "a million mobilized" for the "liberation of the south of the country.

In fact, the ukrainian military achieved only one thing - they advanced 7 km in a southeasterly direction on the segment between the villages of Andreevka and Lozovo and found themselves blocked on the steppe landscape in the area of Sukhoi Stavok.

Taking advantage of the increased attention of russian forces in this theater of operations, Kyiv tried to eliminate the Arkhangelsk bridgehead (located near the urban-type settlement of Arkhangelskoye, 45 km northeast of Sukhoi Stavka) in order to exclude the potential possibility of its use for strikes by the Uragan MLRS against the strongholds of the forces of Ukraine on the near approaches to Krivoy Rog. This idea of the forces of Ukraine also failed. Active counter-battery and anti-tank actions by Russian units, as well as Su-25SM air strikes, not only ensured control over the bridgehead, but also made it possible to undermine the defense capability of a number of Ukrainian fortifications.

In addition, the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine actively reports that during the offensive missile strikes destroyed bridges across the Dnieper (including the Antonovsky bridge, the neighboring railway bridge and the crossing on the Kakhovskaya dam). Allegedly, this will tear off parts of the russian forces from logistics supply, but still lack of evidence, bridges are really damaged, but not destroyed and are now being restored. At the same time, the decrease in the pace of supply is partially offset by ferry crossings built by the engineering units of the Russian army.
At the moment, the fighting continues. There are reports that the AFU are trying to pull additional forces to the line of contact.

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Self-propelled guns under the fire of Russian artillery.
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A column of Ukrainian vehicles retreats in the Kherson region, August 29, 2022

The procession is under dense artillery fire of the RF Armed Forces, almost destroying the Akatsiya.

Somehow it even evokes memories of the "Hot Summer" of 2014 and the Ilovaisk cauldron.
 

drowingfish

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RWA reported that there were two prongs of Ukrainian assaults, one in the north of Kherson, which consisted of 2 infantry battalions and an unknown number of tanks, and one to the west, which consisted of infantry and a tank company. I think they're merely attempting localized offensives right now, and will commit if they make a breakthrough. If they dont deliver on this, they'll lose face and support, but most importantly, they need a tactical victory before winter. I would take any reports from the ground with a grain of salt right now, unless it comes from the defense ministries of both sides.
If Ukraine commits to kherson but fails to take it, I think it would be akin to Germany's attempt on kursk, it will be the end of its offensive capability. if they can't take kherson, then they sure as heck won't get any luck with Donbass.
 

Sinnavuuty

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Front Kharkov-Sumy
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Important! There are messages from local residents from the Kharkiv region. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have been accumulating equipment and manpower in the Balakliya direction for the sixth day. Perhaps they are preparing a counteroffensive in the area. Perhaps in the direction of Izyum. And perhaps yesterday, the Ukrainian command sacrificed many hundreds of its warriors in the Kherson direction in order to distract from other directions. Yes, stupid, but there is logic even in their stupidity.

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The Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing a counteroffensive near Kharkov, intending to start artillery preparation this night - attempts to attack in the Kherson direction could be designed to divert attention

The Ukrainian army is preparing to counterattack in the Izyum direction. According to a source from Readovka, at about 2 a.m. today, the militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine intend to begin artillery preparation near Kharkov, equipment and manpower have already been drawn up for this purpose.

The same information is confirmed by Daniil Bezsonov - in his Telegram channel, he suggested that the recent failed counter-offensive in the Kherson direction could be an attempt to divert attention: “Perhaps yesterday the Ukrainian command sacrificed many hundreds of its military in the Kherson region in order to distract from other directions.”

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Footage of one of the clashes of our fighters in the Kharkov direction. Looks like they've been ambushed. An exclusive was shared by a fighter of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, who leads the channel "Archangel of Special Forces".


Russian military inflicted fire damage on accumulations of enemy manpower at Yanzhulovka in the Chernihiv region, as well as at Starikovo and Volnaya Sloboda in the Sumy region.
In the Kharkiv region, the parties are fighting and artillery duels in the north of the region: there are fighting in the surroundings of Svetlichnoye, west of Cossack Lopan, as well as in the vicinity of Odnorobovka. Russian forces launched several missile attacks on the positions of the Kraken national battalion near the Kharkiv Regional Council building.
 

Sinnavuuty

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Front Kherson-Mykolaiv
Continuing:

Ukrainian sources claim a counter-offensive against Kherson and an attack towards the village of Sukhoi Stavok (near Belogorka) and even the capture of the village of Sukhoi Stavok.

The AFU is trying to invade the village of Bruskinskoye (Beryslavsky District) - on the Berislav-Davydov Brod highway. Artillery and aviation are actively working on the Ukrainian forces that broke through. So far, the AFU has failed to significantly expand the front of its advance, according to Strelkov.

In the Blagodatnoe area, the AFU suffered losses, retreated to the initial starting points, although according to some reports the AFU cut the road.

In the Andreevka area, the situation is not completely clear, there are reports that the AFU advanced several kilometers to the village of Sukhoi Stavok and even took it. Until now, without photo/video evidence as I had said before, the fights continue there.

In the Davydov Brod area, the front remains stable. In the area of Vysokopolye, Olgovka and Potemkino, the AFU attacks were unsuccessful. So, if the AFU doesn't get some success and consolidate them in the Sukhoi Stavok village area, the offensive will be completely stalled. In the evening after the next attacks by HIMARS, the AFU made an advance in several directions. They engaged in up to three crosses raised on a front that were unsuccessful. The AFU advance was also carried out with the support of a tank fist that were reserve components with strength of up to one company. AFU aviation work via helicopters was also highlighted in this area of operations.

Of the successful attacks by the AFU on three axes, one of the successful ones was from the Andreevka-Lozovoye direction, as a result, the AFU advanced almost 6 kilometers and occupied the village of Sukhoi Stavok. An unsuccessful attempt to break through to the Ukrainian side ended up taking place in the northeast direction, in the exact settlements: Lyubimovka, Mirolyubovka, Dobryanka, Olgino, Potemkino and Vysokopolye. Here the landing and the guys from the Black Sea Fleet brigade slowed the AFU advance. But the AFU does not abandon attempts to encircle the forces in Vysokopolye and so far without any success here. According to the tactics already worked out, it is possible to use the territorial defense forces for assault tasks and for cleaning - enemy volunteer battalions.

In general, it is too early to talk about more precise advances and setbacks, the situation is developing with varying success for each of the parties. It can be said with certainty that Ukraine approached the issue not with a bang, but with full confidence in its abilities. The AFU managed to gain a foothold and create a foothold in one of the broken sections. The AFU is waiting for the forces to approach, Strelkov said the two-day attacks were just a soft approach to what's to come, let's wait to see that coming to fruition or not.

In the Snigirevsky - Mykolaiv area, Russian troops are doing well, the AFU tried to counterattack in the direction of Blagodatny, but, having lost two infantry fighting vehicles and 10 infantrymen, they retreated from their forward positions.

Others:
An American M777 howitzer was destroyed in the Plavni station area, caught on the run. Today, two AFU Su-25s were shot down north of Posad-Pokrovsky. They also revealed the movement of infantry and equipment on the same axis, 7-8 infantry fighting vehicles and 4-5 tanks. The infantry was covered by artillery. The AFU had very heavy losses.
 

Sinnavuuty

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Another video demonstrating the fortifications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which now have to be taken in battle.

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The New York Times, citing "US and allied officials," reports the transfer of the first batch of Iranian UAVs to Russia.
Cargo planes with drones took off from Tehran on Monday, August 29. The first batch included two Shahed models, Shahed-129 and Shahed-191, as well as Mohajer-6.
Iranian specialists will also arrive in Russia to help in setting up the systems. The Russian military has already been trained in Iran.
 

Sinnavuuty

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LDNR front

There are no frontline changes towards Bakhmut (Artemovsk), positional battles continue in Bakhmut (Artemovsk) and Soledar. In Bakhmut, Russian forces are fighting in the area, squeezing the enemy out of the settlement. Russian rocket and artillery troops carried out massive attacks on the positions of the 53rd OMBR and the national battalion "Kraken" in Bakhmut (Artemovsk).

In the Zaporozhye region, Ukrainian formations continued to bomb Energodar and the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant. Russian forces, in response, attack enemy firing points at Nikopol, Marganets and Chervonogrigorovka on the north bank of the Dnieper.

Beautiful combat photos: Wagner PMC tanks are destroying Ukrainian Armed Forces positions near Artyomovsk. In the footage, the tactics of the "tank carousel" - covering the enemy with continuous fire from different directions
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Sinnavuuty

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Pro-Ukraine channels publish a list of serious malfunctions when using "reliable" Western weapons -

M777: After frequent firing, the barrel does not fully return to its original position, which further disables the weapon; after 30 shots, the bolt wedge needs serious maintenance.

M109: Due to intense firing, shutter mirror wedge and charge chamber o-rings burn out;

Howitzer FH70: Watertightness is often broken and the nitrogen pressure in the gun's balancing mechanism is reduced;

PzH 2000: Commander Control Unit monitors constantly overheat, charging system often fails; obturation rings fail quickly.

Krab self-propelled weapons: During intensive shooting, the shaft breaks on the fuse in the shutter wedge, the shutter wedge bolts break and bend;

Caesar: The aiming program incorrectly calculates: the first shot is always less than 600-800m; guidance blocks fail spontaneously.


They covered the BMP of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with artillery fire
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Somewhere in Ukraine. 37th Motorized Marines Brigade of Separated Guards.
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Inflicting fire damage on the fortifications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine along the canals in the Nikolaev region.
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A little history of VDV intelligence as they reflected Nikolaev's AFU offensive near Kherson in a specific sector of the front. The paratrooper tells what he saw with his own eyes. "They (the Armed Forces) started the artillery preparation and went on the offensive - 6 tanks and an infantry company. They were treated with return artillery fire, 2 tanks were burned, the infantry suffered losses and fled
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Thus, the reconnaissance of the Airborne Forces, together with the artillerymen, destroyed the armored vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the battles between Kherson and Nikolaev. Our landing force comrades accurately hit enemy targets, adjusting UAV fire in the direction of Nikolaev

ATGM miscalculation of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on the T-64BV of the Armed Forces of Ukraine heading Kherson, August 29, 2022
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A video is circulating in the media, which allegedly shows the operation of 4 HIMARS installations in the direction of Kherson. These facilities are used by the militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to attack the Antonovsky Bridge.
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Moments before the destruction: the Armed Forces showed the movement of columns of armored vehicles towards the south. Apparently, they were the ones who made a failed attack on Kherson, which ended in defeat.
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TongHua

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Another video demonstrating the fortifications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which now have to be taken in battle.

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The New York Times, citing "US and allied officials," reports the transfer of the first batch of Iranian UAVs to Russia.
Cargo planes with drones took off from Tehran on Monday, August 29. The first batch included two Shahed models, Shahed-129 and Shahed-191, as well as Mohajer-6.
Iranian specialists will also arrive in Russia to help in setting up the systems. The Russian military has already been trained in Iran.

These UCAV have great range and flight time. Only these can hunt down long range artillery like HIMARS which usually operate 40 to 50 km from the front compared to 5 to 10 km from the front as in the case of M777.

If Ukraine commits to kherson but fails to take it, I think it would be akin to Germany's attempt on kursk, it will be the end of its offensive capability. if they can't take kherson, then they sure as heck won't get any luck with Donbass.

Or Ardennes offensive 2.0, in which Germany exhausted its remaining stock of tanks and fighter planes in a failed push against the Americans.
 

TongHua

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In a war of attrition, it comes down to which side can manufacture artillery ammo faster. If Russia can manufacture artillery ammo faster than America can manufacture artillery ammo then Russia wins the war. If America can manufacture artillery ammo faster than Russia can manufacture artillery ammo then America wins the war.
 
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