Yup, it was a monumental fuck up. I was perplexed by Putin's decision to start the war in the first place, now it seems to me his decision was partly due to increasing likelihood of Ukraine joining NATO on the one hand and partly prompt by false assessment of Ukrainian resolve on the other....
At this point, I'm honestly rather convinced that Putin might actually have gotten spooked by the chance of Ukraine getting nukes.
Which might have been the straw that broke the camels back.
Zelensky and other people from his government going out and saying such.
And as it stands, Ukraine, before the war, would actually be one of the countries which could manufacture nukes by themselves (nukes and nuclear reactors was once made there, not to mention there actually being nuclear reactors in Ukraine, and also ofc older retired specialist who has worked with nuclear reactors and possibly nukes).