That’s a conclusion based on a lot of unsubstantiated assumptions.
Firstly, you are assuming that all crashed drones will be found. That’s clearly not going to be the case here, especially when we are talking about small commercial stuff that both sides are using in large numbers.
Also, it’s noteworthy to stress that in the overwhelming majority of cases, crashes stuff are first discovered by local civilians who both know the area well and have the luxury of time and freedom of movement to come across them. In the Ukraine case, with the lion share of small drones being used on the frontlines, the likelihood of them being discovered is much reduced since most of the civilian population would have fled and those who haven’t wouldn’t be wondering an active battlefield; and because soldiers are probably too busy fighting or taking cover to notice or care about falling UAVs. Even if they did notice one falling, getting to it is potentially going to be difficult and dangerous.
The point that Ukraine/Russia need to actually find crashed drones is true. Whether there are Russian MALE drones in the Ukrainian countryside waiting to be discovered is another thing.
As for civilian finds that benefits the Ukraine more as most of Ukraine is still controlled by them. Crashed TB-2s get hidden, any Russian drone gets photographed.
Most commercial drones have a return home feature when contact is lost with the controller, and it’s a feature Orlan-10 also have.
True and I was aware of that. My point was that for whatever reason, these systems fail. It happens on a scale far higher than on manned aircraft.
You are also making the assumption that the Russians and Ukrainians are using their drones in the same way, which they are not.
The Russians are showing strike footage from missiles because that’s what they are using for most of the big strategic strikes, for tactical strikes, they use artillery. The Ukrainians don’t have that option, which is why they are reduced to releasing drone footage of tactical strikes against individual vehicles or soldiers.
There is going to be a vast difference in failure and attrition rates of drones from using them for stand-off recon compared to jury-rigging release mechanisms and strapping external loads they were never designed to carry to do poor man UCAV strikes.
You also have to consider the very different detection and AA assets both sides are using.
The Russians are publishing detailed breakdowns of their shootdowns of drones because they are using SAM and other air defence radars to track and engage these drones. The Ukrainians are almost certainly limited to MK1 eyeball for the most case. That means that their ability to detect Russian drones is going to be massively weaker compared to the Russians.
Rather than the Russians not conduction lots of drone operations, it’s more likely that a combination of the Russians using their drones primarily for observation rather than strike, and the lack of effective detection means on the Ukrainian side is creating the false illusion of safety, where the Ukrainians are not even aware that drones are being used against them most of the time.
It's evident that Russia is using lots of Orlan-10 type drones very effectively. Lots of footage has been posted, and a large number of them have been shot down/crashed.
The point I was replying to was Russian use of HALE/MALE combat drones. As I said in the last thread, they are two completely different platforms. There's no reason to limit yourself to one. If Russia was smart they would have realised that their Orion platform wasn't mature enough and before the war bought a large number of Wing Loong drones. If they had done that they could have been unleashing a lot more destruction on Ukraine than Ukrainian TB-2s because of the disparity in air defence. In the end it may not make a difference but it certainly would be handy to have right now.
Alternatively you can believe that Russia are operating Orion in high numbers, but have stopped posting footage of them and they are somehow not losing any over Ukraine.
As for Russia shooting down Ukrainian TB-2, I don't doubt it. Look at the multiple military flights between Turkey and Ukraine and big production surge by the Turkish makers of the TB-2. Most of them are crashing in territory controlled by Ukraine so we don't hear about it and Ukrainians can't paint "Z" on them like they do with their tanks.
