If you look at a map, you would see Russia hasn't achieved any major cities except maybe Mariupol and Kherson. Kherson fell within the first week, and Mariupol took almost 2 months. You have smaller ones like Melitopol and Izyum, but those achievements are very meagre for a 70-day performance. (The cities in DNR/LNR don't count since they were de facto under Russian-control before invasion). If I was Putin, I'd be pissed.
That's what Russia should be doing. Keep the front lines as close to their borders as possible. The goal for Russia now should be to destroy as much of Ukraine's military and fighting capability as possible. What difference does it make if the war lasts 2 months or a year? The sanctions and economic war isn't going away. The only disadvantage is if Putin is planning on invading another country other than Moldova after this.
At the start of the war, I said that Ukraine should consider withdrawing and forming a new frontline further west. The reason being that most supplies for Ukraine would be coming in from the west and as the Ukraine is a big country to get to the frontline is a lot of miles to cover. For Russia its a short distance to their border, some areas it's as little as 20 miles. I can understand Ukraine's reasons for not doing so, they don't want the morale loss of losing more territory, but that would be a temporary setback.
Now we're finally hearing reports of fuel shortages in Ukrainian cities, and some western mercs on twitter have mentioned taking diesel from Ukrainian farmers when on the front. I'm impressed they've managed to keep things together this long. If they're having problems with fuel supplies, it's likely they are having problems with other provisions ammo, food etc.
I can't see what the Ukrainian win condition is. So far they have been incapable of mounting any significant counter attack, let alone push Russians back across the border. It's only going to get harder for them. Are they planning on keeping Russians where they are forever?
The problem with that is that they currently have very little economy (thanks to the naval embargo) and a very expensive army to maintain. They are very dependent on support from the west to maintain their current status. It's going to cost the west as much as $100 billion a year to keep things as they currently are if you include economic and military support. There was plenty of support for it at the start of the war, but it seems to be getting smaller. The SJW are moving on from the Ukraine and will find something else to campaign about. Time will tell but I think as the economic downturn and inflation hits people in the west will start questioning all the aid being pumped into the Ukraine.
In other words, it could be a repeat of South Vietnam. As soon as the money flows stopped, so did the resistance. Except the spent to prop up the Ukraine is much higher.
