How's NATO performance against Serbian Air Defense in 1999 ? How many Kub they can nail ?
I think the 1999's lesson are somewhat forgotten, despite its relevance today. Soviet era SAM's like Kub are proven relatively hard to suppress and even "static" S-125/SA-3 can evade NATO aircrafts. and it all happen in Serbia which like 7 times smaller than Ukraine.
The other lesson is the great scud hunt in 1990's. This is particularly important for people who wonder why Russians cant quickly nail or even find Tochka launchers. Mobile launchers are HARD target particularly when it use solid propellant missile.
IF Serbian with ancient Kub and Neva/pechora can evade NATO surveillance.. imagine what Ukraine can do with more modern Buk and even S-300PT's and about 7 times the area of Serbia. and this time they got free Western AEW support.
Well Russians have their surveillance platform etc.. but as history shown.. Mobile launchers and SAM's are hard to pick in the first place.
These weapons are incredibly difficult to neutralize or even supress in time unless you have constantly aircraft in the air able to quickly deliver (i mean from identification to neutralization in about 5 minutes, before the target disappears into a dense forest)
So what do you do when there is credible threat of air defence scattered anywhere in the country?
Do you risk your expensive aircraft to perform combat patrols over any number if potential air defence means? Do you risk even more expensive stealth aircrafts that arent invisible at all, and quite detectable at various angles? what happens when you lose one of these?
Thats a heavy hit to morale for your frint line soldiers to see your Su57s, F22, or B2s arent invincible.
These systems, some people say they are outdated and it all should be done from the air, but those same people watched or studied only conflicts between disproportiantely matched beligerents, as was mentioned here earlier.
Ukraine and Russia no matter how you slice it are peer level adversaries that have or had, very similar capabilities. This is a kind of war that nobody alive today has witnessed
And one thing for sure is that NATO war planners greatly underestimated Russian capabilities when they were planning and preparing to get this war started