The War in the Ukraine

Surpluswarrior

Junior Member
VIP Professional
You really think what I highlighted is actually something that can happen here in western media??? (spoilers: not possible lol)

I do think they might actually have some more competent and good discussions and analysis' within their military/intelligence agencies, but for something like that to be more public? No way.

Right. What I mean is it would be nice to see here a deeper treatment of the logistical / manufacturing issues that set the boundaries of what is possible in Russia.

Discussions like that can take place here, but not so much on Western media or forums.

Unfortunately, I think the reading of various Russian sources, which have reliability issues of their own, would be required in order to inform the discussion. But it would be better than what I am seeing frequently here and elsewhere, which is someone provides figures about "Russian losses" from the latest NATO propaganda cutout, and people react to those figures.

Instead of a reactive discussion, a more comprehensive discussion of what is going on with production and doctrine, would be preferable.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
This is a valid question, and one driven by what we're seeing.

They have a lot of tanks in storage, and one question that has to be answered is their 'true' condition. (i.e. the number that can be quickly put into service, or ever, may be lower than reported).

I've read accounts from tank crew on Russian websites. Take from it what you will. But what I got from it was that Russian tankers, by in large, are surviving as a corps. Here are some points:

-T-80s are effective tanks in this war. They have better speed/mobility than other tanks, and better reverse speeds. This has turned out to be tactically relevant in several instances.

-Russian T-80s [and some other models] are only operating with the rounds inside the armoured carousel during anti-tank missions. [~10 rounds available?] This is to reduce the chance of catastrophic detonation upon penetration.

OTOH, Russian tankers report that Ukrainian tanks are loaded to maximum with shells. This has led to catastrophic detonations during combat.

-There are several Russian armour units that have performed successful anti-tank operations during this campaign, making them veteran units. They seem to believe, conversely, that Ukraine's armoured personnel have been severely depleted during the military operation. Ukraine may no longer have the body of professional tankers that it began with.

Yes, there are interesting accounts out there, and I think there's a paucity of discussion of them in the English language. We're learning, for example, that T-80 gas-turbine mobility may be more useful than the Russian procurement plans suggested. Learning the value (maybe) of going out on missions with only the rounds in the armoured carousel.

Sadly, I don't see a lot of discussion of this, just the discussion generated by Western sniping that is disguised as "reporting." [i.e. Russia lost x number of tanks]. Russia has been increasing the speed of its advances over the past months, so that does not suggest catastrophic armoured losses on their part. And you're seeing Ukraine military driving around Donbass in civilian vehicles.
This is valuable information. Power weight ratio appears to be highly important, as well as wise use of tank tactics that assume worst case scenarios.

Fully loading on ammo makes the implicit assumption that the limit on effectiveness is ammo amount, not survivability. That means the Ukrainian tank crews actually believed that Russian antitank was utterly ineffective and their biggest worry was not having sufficient ammo. Huh???
 

Corona

Junior Member
Registered Member

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
The US Embassy in Ukraine urges Americans to leave the country immediately

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Oh that doesn’t look like a good sign.

The security situation throughout Ukraine continues to be violent and unpredictable due to ongoing military attacks by Russia, with active fighting in country and uncertain safety conditions. Avoid large gatherings and organized events as they may serve as Russian military targets anywhere in Ukraine, including its western regions. The U.S. Embassy urges U.S. citizens in Ukraine to depart now using privately available ground transportation options if it is safe to do so. See the latest
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Surpluswarrior

Junior Member
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This is valuable information. Power weight ratio appears to be highly important, as well as wise use of tank tactics that assume worst case scenarios.

Fully loading on ammo makes the implicit assumption that the limit on effectiveness is ammo amount, not survivability. That means the Ukrainian tank crews actually believed that Russian antitank was utterly ineffective and their biggest worry was not having sufficient ammo. Huh???

It's all very interesting, and under-discussed.

In the case of minimal ammo load-outs on Russian tanks, it seems to relate to the logistics situation. In Donbass, a few weeks after the start of the operation, the armoured units could rely on access to supplies coming in from Russia by train.

So it was possible [and described by them] to get in a tank battle, win, withdraw, and reload from nearby supplies.

Conversely, Ukraine tanks in Donbass (especially reinforcements) may have been further out from [intact] supply depots. They may have been fully-loaded not primarily for combat effectiveness, but because of uncertain resupply.

So supply/resupply conditions may have affected whether it is possible to run on a minimal ammo load-out.

Would have to read more accounts to learn more. I'll have to start keeping a list of where this is being discussed. Many lessons being learned, probably. Russia, earlier, had to learn the value of their own 122mm mobile arty. It's weaker and shorter-ranged, but can drive in terrible terrain (e.g. swamps). They were about to get rid of useful stuff (122mm mobile arty, lots of towed arty) before 2014 conflict showed them why it was in their inventory in the first place. So they're learning and re-learning a lot as a result of these events.
 

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
Could be related to this


I expect the Serbian president to know what he is saying.
Russia will escalate in ways that will stun Kiev and the Anglos

Hm. Looks like something is about to happen. Not so much that he knows what is saying but Serbian relation with Russia has been historically close and friendly which still lasts up to this day.
 

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
I expect the Serbian president to know what he is saying.
Russia will escalate in ways that will stun Kiev and the Anglos
How so?

2nd round of Battle of Kiev, but for real this time instead of merely a diversion and with Belarus joining the war? Usage of FOAB? Or usage of tactical nukes on Ukraine?

Just my 2 cents.
 
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Michaelsinodef

Senior Member
Registered Member
How so?

2nd round of Battle of Kiev, but for real this time instead of merely a diversion? Or actual use of tactical nukes on Ukraine?

Just my 2 cents.
Nah, I still doubt use of any kind of nukes.

Maybe something like FOABs? Or bigger targeting of western units (former military personel, volunters, CIA operatives and the likes etc.)?
 
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