The War in the Ukraine

HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
I think the big question mark is what does the Trump administration do? Everything Trump himself has indicated that he does not want to support Ukraine and wants a peace deal ASAP. If he can force that on Ukraine and Russia agrees to the terms that could bring about a quicker end to the war. On the other, it could just be business as usual or maybe you see a slight decrease in US support for Ukraine, but not an outright end to it.
We just don't know. He's very mercurial.

He could cut aid off one day, then give them billions the next if Putin annoys him.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Marder 1A3 struck by a Prince Vandal drone of the 155th Marine Brigade in the Kursk region.

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Massive drone attack over Kyiv and Ternopil.

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Russian artillery takes out a Ukrainian UAV control point in the Kharkhiv region.

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Razdolny may have fallen to the Russians. This near and north of Velikaya Novoselka on a highway towards Kurakhovo.

Russians broke through the Oskol River.

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Captured Baba Yaga. Part of a series of Russians harvesting Baba Yagas out of the sky via EW. Captured Baba Yagas are repurposed for Russian use for the most part.

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Missile attack on a force concentration of the AFU 56th Brigade.

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Ukrainian Akasya SPG taken out by Lancet.

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Supercam UAV discovers Ukrainian artillery position near Seversk, Wich Russian artillery took out.

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Ukrainian EW site gets taken out by a Russian D-74 howitzer. The D-74 may have come from North Korea. Group North of forces.

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Lancet takes out a PzH2000 155mm SPG in the Kursk region.

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Two Ukrainian AFVs and a T-80 struck by Prince Vandal drones in the Kursk region.


Russian soldier of the 132nd dumps a TM-62 mine down the hatch of a Ukrainian stronghold in Toretsk.

 

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
Things are moving fast at the front:
Russians have entered Velyka Novosilka

Rozdolne, to the north of Velyka Novosilka is either completely or majority in Russian hands

Kurakhove is 50% in Russian hands

This one I saw more than a day ago but thought it's not worth mentioning yet. But now it looks like Russians really have crossed the Oskol River north of Kuypansk and have enlarged their bridgehead. My guess is the fighting at Kupyansk has attracted enough attention that it has opened up opportunities for the Russians to force a crossing.
 

Eventine

Junior Member
Registered Member
Putin plays chess, not checkers. While Russia is winning on the ground, he’s not going to get baited into an escalation race by the outgoing Biden administration. Biden WANTS Russia to attack NATO so that they can invoke Article 5 and conventionally intervene. That’s basically their only way to reverse the course of the war, but it’s highly unpopular because face it, most Europeans don’t want to go to war for Ukraine; baiting Putin into attacking a NATO European country is basically needed to mobilize the public.
 

Tito1914

Just Hatched
Registered Member
I doubt Europeans alone can reverse the course of the war, unless the US joins in.
Bielorussia will get involved and we may see nukes flying around.
So, wrt Europeans, it is not just highly unpopular, their population is more acutely aware of the doomsday than their political leadership who seem totally blinded by their arrogance.
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
Europeans will not support a war against Russia for the sake of Ukraine if Putin’s retaliation against NATO is morally and politically justified.
European NATO support for Ukraine is merely rhetorical.

For example, the NATO Assembly of Parliaments, meeting in Montreal, Canada, on 25 November 24, adopted a resolution expressing the following points regarding Ukraine:
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NATO AFTER THE WASHINGTON SUMMIT: FUTURE-PROOFING THE ALLIANCE AND SUPPORTING UKRAINE UNTIL VICTORY

- to develop, at the next Summit in the Netherlands, a common strategic approach towards Russia, focusing on the Alliance's comprehensive preparedness to contain and counter Russia's hostile actions across the board, whether conventional, hybrid or nuclear, while supporting efforts to degrade Moscow's ability to conduct aggressive wars, including by ensuring the full implementation of sanctions by all Allies, as well as by recognising Ukraine's right to attack legitimate military targets on the territory of the aggressor, in accordance with the principle of self-defence in Article 51 of the UN Charter;

- ensure that all Allies meet without delay at least the 2% of GDP defence expenditure target and continue to increase it, in order to ensure the full implementation of NATO's new defence plans, while fulfilling the commitment to expand NATO's industrial capacity and encouraging joint procurement initiatives;

- sustain and increase military, financial and humanitarian support to Ukraine, ensuring the timely delivery of munitions and advanced weapons systems, including air defence systems, long-range precision weapons and multi-role combat aircraft, while fulfilling the commitment to long-term security assistance to Ukraine and exploiting the full potential of the NSATU, the NATO-Ukraine Council, the Comprehensive Assistance Package (CAP), the NATO-Ukraine Joint Analysis, Training and Education Centre, the NATO Representation in Ukraine and other supporting instruments, and maintain this support to Ukraine while facing Russian aggression or the threat thereof in the future;

- support Ukraine’s efforts, expressed in the peace formula and the Ukraine Victory Plan, to achieve a just and lasting peace for Ukraine and remain faithful to the principle of “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine”;

- intensify political and practical efforts to help Ukraine receive an invitation and become the 33rd member of NATO as soon as possible.

This Assembly is a political body of NATO. Some points are worth highlighting:
- the request for allies to meet their budgetary targets of 2% for the contribution to the alliance is an attempt to preempt Trump. Until recently, this was a point on which Trump was criticized.
- Zelensky’s reference to the “Victory Plan” is a gesture to the Ukrainian President, disconnected from political reality. No European or American leader has decisively supported this plan.
- the supply of “long-range precision weapons” to Ukraine seems to be a point disconnected from the reality of the battlefield and current strategic developments.
- the promise of inviting Ukraine to join NATO “as soon as possible” has become a cliché that no longer seems credible after more than 1,000 days of war without such an invitation.
- finally, the title of the Resolution was: “NATO AFTER THE WASHINGTON SUMMIT: PREPARE THE ALLIANCE FOR THE FUTURE AND SUPPORT UKRAINE UNTIL VICTORY”. What does NATO define as victory? I think very few people there have any idea what would characterize a Ukrainian victory. If anyone does.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Russian MoD has statements about the ATACMS attack on an S-400 site,

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↓According to confirmed data, over the past 3 days, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have carried out 2 strikes with long-range Western weapons on targets in the Kursk region.
↓Thus, on November 23, the enemy launched a strike in the area of the settlement with five operational-tactical missiles «ATACMS» produced in the USA. Lotarevka (37 km sev.-zap. Kursk) according to the position of the S-400 air defense system.
↓During the anti-missile battle, the ZRPK «Pantsir» combat crew, which provided cover for this division, destroyed 3 «ATACMS» missiles, and 2 – reached their target.
↓The radar was damaged as a result of the impact. There are casualties among the personnel.
↓On November 25, the Kiev regime launched 1 more strike with eight operational-tactical missiles «ATACMS» at the Kursk-Vostochny airfield (n.p. Halino). 7 missiles were shot down by combat crews of the S-400 air defense system and the «Pantsir» air defense system, one – reached the target. As a result of the fall of rocket fragments, two soldiers were slightly injured and infrastructure was slightly damaged.
↓During the inspection of the places under attack, it was reliably confirmed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces carried out strikes with operational-tactical missiles «ATACMS».
️The Russian Ministry of Defense is monitoring the situation, and retaliatory actions are being prepared.


Destroyed Bradley in the Kursk region from the Ukrainian perspective.

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Ukrainian T-72M1 blew up after FPV drone attacks from the 37th MR Brigade and the 16th SPN Brigade in the Krasnoliman direction.

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Bradley blows up after hit by an FPV drone in the Kursk region. Both these vehicle might have full ammo loads.

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There's a report of two Iskanders arriving on Odessa.

Two Ukrainian tanks of the AFU 25th Brigade knocked out by mines, FPV and artillery after a failed counterattack on the Pokrovsk direction.

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Successful assault by the Russian 57th Regiment on Elizavetovka in the Kurakhovo direction.

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MoD confirms the capture of Kopanki in the Kharkhov region.

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More than 50 percent of Kurakhovo might be in Russian hands as the fight now reaches within Velikaya Novoselka.

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MSTA-S takes care of a Ukrainian ammo depot using a Krasnopol.

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Russian missile strike on a Ukrainian force concentration in Sumy region. Allegedly up to 100 killed, 20 vehicles destroyed plus an Enclave EW station.

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Leopard 1 blows up in the Pokrovsk direction from the Ukrainian perspective, who appears to be a medic. The tank appears taken out not by an FPV but by a direct hit of a shell, either from another tank or a Krasnopol.

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The Russian flag is raised and waved over Kopanki.

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Tsar Mangal using a T-80 tank goes on to the attack, plowing through minefields. Mines didn't stop it. South Donetsk.

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Ukrainian 2S22 Bogdana 155mm SPG taken out by a Lancet. The crew ran off as the Lancet attacks.

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Leopard struck catastrophically by a Lancet. The tank tried to hide but in vain.

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Soldier30

Senior Member
Registered Member
An episode of the Russian BMD-4M airborne combat vehicle in Ukraine, long-range fire. The combat work of the BMD-4M is practically not shown, the video was filmed in the Zaporizhia direction. The BMD-4M is shelling Ukrainian strongholds located in forest belts. Fire is conducted from a 100-mm 2A70 gun and a 30-mm 2A72 automatic gun at a long distance. It is worth noting that the BMD-4M has no protection against drones, which is quite risky these days. The BMD-4M crew is three people. The video is shortened.

 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
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How likely is the use of nuclear weapons by Russia?​


According to the author, Patricia Lewis, Russian nuclear threats are directed at NATO, not Ukraine. She also spoke about the scenario in which Russia is preparing to launch, warning NATO to act preemptively against Russia and launch its strike first, whether conventional or nuclear.
 
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