The War in the Ukraine

quim said:

I don't doubt they'll send Tomahawks next.

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And launch them with what, exactly?. The Typhon launchers aren't exactly common currently and they are also earmarked for the Pacific; and the alternative is firing them from the AEGIS Ashore in Poland or Romania which is such a great idea, lol

Some records of what they claim to be from MRBM Oreshnik

Edit:

According to the Ukraine Watch channel, Russia has about 1,500 cruise and short-range missiles in stock for strikes against Ukraine, according to media reports. RBC-Ukraine also reports that about 170 of these missiles are produced monthly, citing its sources. A year ago, the production volume of these types of missiles was between 115-130 missiles, indicating an increase in production volumes, the publication notes. The production of Geran drones is also increasing. It is estimated that Russia could produce about 900 drones per month.

It seems that the EU and USA want to take this war to the end:

But speeding up U.S. weaponry in the waning months of the Biden administration could help Ukraine enforce a cease-fire or armistice line if there were to be a settlement, officials said.

The one gold-standard security guarantee that Ukraine wants is an invitation to join NATO. But it could not get that under Mr. Biden, and an invitation is unlikely during Mr. Trump’s presidency.

So U.S. and European officials are discussing deterrence as a possible security guarantee for Ukraine, such as stockpiling a conventional arsenal sufficient to strike a punishing blow if Russia violates a cease-fire.

Several officials even suggested that Mr. Biden could return nuclear weapons to Ukraine that were taken from it after the fall of the Soviet Union. That would be an instant and enormous deterrent. But such a step would be complicated and have serious implications.

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The operative phrase Putin is telling to the West is

F___ around and Find Out.


Iskander arrival in Dnipropetrovsk. Smells like a Double Tap. A Double Tap behind with the first missile strike. Then the rescue people appear but including important officials from the government and the military to assess the damage and the casualties. Then you strike the same area with a second missile.


Geran strikes towards Kramatorsk. This appears to be logistics and power supply strikes.


Ukrainian EW system being used to interfere with Russian drone operation, taken out with Lancet.


A Ukrainian Gvozdika gets taken out by a Lancet.


Everytime Zelensky visits and does a selfie with the city in the background like this, it ends up getting captured. This city is now Kupyansk.


Black Leopards Tank Battalion evacuates an M113 towards the Russian rear.


Russian soldier of the 82nd Regiment dumps a TM-62 land mine into a basement occupied by Ukrainian soldiers. This in Volchansk.


Ukrainian deployment points gets hit by FABs in Ivanivka.


Deployment point of the AFU 53rd Brigade gets hit by a missile strike.


Rare Ukrainian BMP-1TS with a remote controlled combat module disabled by an FPV drone.


FPV drone arrives right at the cannon of this Abrams.


Rare American BATT UMG found destroyed.


Marder gets hit by an FPV drone in the Kursk region.


Nona-S working in the Kursk region.


Russian artillery of the West group takes out an M198 howitzer and a field ammo depot.


Russians evacuating a Maxxpro.

plawolf said:

Russia is putting pieces in position, but it will not show its hand properly until after January.

Russia knows that the current round of mad dash escalation is the last gasps of the expired Biden regime. They are trying to limit that escalation, but there is no point even trying to strike any sort of grand deal since Trump can easily renege on it after he takes office.

As such, don’t expect any radical moves like direct strikes against NATO countries, since Biden has nothing to loose and everything to gain from invoking Article 5 in the dying days of his rule. But Russia may well choose to test Trump by accidentally-on-purpose hitting something, say an arms shipment convoy, just across the boarder in Poland soon after he takes office if there isn’t a reduction in NATO salami slicing in Ukraine.

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Betting everything in Trump's hands doesn't seem very safe.

There is a great danger that the neocon lobby may pressure Trump to continue Biden's policy, since Russia has never responded adequately to any provocation, so Russia's position in an agreement is weakened and new future problems may occur.

It is also quite disconcerting to let the Biden regime get away with impunity after all the blood it has spilled. Within 4 years the Democrats will return and repeat the same global policy of bullying against Russia.

Russia has every justification to escalate in the final days of the Biden regime and go to the negotiating table in a better position after January. Missing this opportunity could cause troubles with the new administration.

Im not aware if this information has been given before, but Ukraine seem to admit the Krinky operation was planned since early 2023 and it was not just some opportunism.

While they do not directly admit to blowing up the Kakhovka dam, it seems impossible to carry out such an operation while the enemy still controls a dam upstreams, with which they can always manipulate the water flow.

To this end, in February 2023, the then Prime Minister Rishi Sunak publicly announced that London was expanding its training programme for Ukrainian military personnel to include fighter pilots and marines. Shortly after this announcement, the first battalion of the newly created 38th Marine Brigade, led by Hero of Ukraine Yevhen Bova, left for training.

Nevertheless, the idea of transferring the marines to the water did not resonate with either the then Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi or President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for a long time. Then the UK took an even more radical step, and an official delegation arrived in Kyiv in early 2023 to meet with Zaluzhnyi.

At this meeting, which was also attended by Navy Commander Oleksii Neizhpapa and the then Marine Commander Yurii Sodol, Ukraine was trying to convince the UK that they could not let marines carry out waterborne operations because they did not have any equipment for this.

To which the UK delegation replied with surprise that Ukraine had not asked the UK for anything for their marines since the beginning of the full-scale war.

"The British said: you need to show that you are preparing several battalions of marines to cross the Dnipro River, so that the Russians would start scratching their heads. Even the preparation for such manoeuvres would send a serious message to the Russians," a source close to the marines told Ukrainska Pravda.

Nevertheless, the British team persuaded Zaluzhnyi, and he said: that's it, we're creating the Marine Corps. The source added that these words made Sodol happy and angered Neizhpapa at the same time.


The latter was afraid that in doing this, the marines, who are the backbone of the Navy, would be taken out of the Navy.

But no one backed down. A few months later, on 23 May 2023, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy officially announced the creation of the

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in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

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gelgoog said:

I think Russia will prevail in Ukraine eventually. And after that it will be the time for NATO to be taken on directly. But this might not be on Putin's watch.

Remember Putin just stated the opinion of the Russian Deep State. This started after the NATO intervention in Yugoslavia, the expansion of NATO to former Warsaw Pact countries and even former Soviet Union countries, the Russian Deep State asserted itself and Yeltsin was forced to accept Primakov, KGB, as Prime Minister. If anything the fact that Putin is there was a concession to the oligarchs. Primakov wanted to just reset the whole thing and put the government back in control of the economy.

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Any intelligent Russian leader wouldn't take on NATO in an obvious way. For all the talk of how the alliance was "revitalized", EU is in a bad shape, and its constituent members are increasingly at odds with each other. Giving them a unifying crime would only work against Russian interests. If a Russian leader is truly interested in turning back the clock to the 90s, they'll just want to wait and stoke inner European tensions. The alliance can fall apart on its own.

Fact of the matter is, Europe's economic interests are clearly not aligned. The most powerful EU economy, Germany, has essentially had to castrate itself in order to appease American and British demands. I sincerely doubt that NATO and EU have the organizational capacity to reconcile all of the strategic differences and economic interests of various member states. This will eventually give Russia an opportunity, provided they have somebody as shrewd and calculating as Putin at the helm in 20-30 years.

Proton said:

Im not aware if this information has been given before, but Ukraine seem to admit the Krinky operation was planned since early 2023 and it was not just some opportunism.

While they do not directly admit to blowing up the Kakhovka dam, it seems impossible to carry out such an operation while the enemy still controls a dam upstreams, with which they can always manipulate the water flow.

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Yes, I think there was an NYT piece on this as well. How Krinky was carried out by Ukrainian marines trained by UK's Royal Marines. The operation was planned with the help and advice of UK armed forces, who thought Krinky could be a "game-changer".

In my opinion, Krinky, if timed properly with the 2023 Ukrainian counter-offensive, could've been effective in disrupting Russia's defensive efforts and it may have even established a bigger beachhead to launch furthr incursions from, but I fail to see how it could have ever been "game-changing". I think this is reflective of the delusion that NATO lives in. It bought into it's own myth of superiority and tactical ingenuity. The only country that fought a large conventional war was United States in the 90s, and even USA has never fought a peer-opponent who was capable of credibly deterring their air power.

As an American, I would love to see a few NATO battalions and air force squadrons in Ukraine just to give the rest of the military alliance a reality check.

Temstar said:

Meanwhile at the front:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1859850049460814103

Instead of attacking northwards like before, Velyka Novosilka is coming under a massive flanking attack. At this rate Russians will be entering the city within days.

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i wonder if there are any robust defensive positions facing east. ukraine is getting caught on a few axis with russian offensives coming from the flanks of its defensive network.

drowingfish said:

i wonder if there are any robust defensive positions facing east. ukraine is getting caught on a few axis with russian offensives coming from the flanks of its defensive network.

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There are. This isn't the first time Russia has tried to attack Velikaya Novoselka. However, the issue is that the majority of the defenses are facing the South East. Russia has largely bypassed this "wall" after the capture of Ugledar. With Russian forces in control of Novoukrainka, Shakhtarske, and Zolotaya Niva, they've entered the "rear" of Velikaya Novoselka. Once Rozdolne is capture, Ukraine may decide to withdraw from the city, otherwise they will risk yet another cauldron.

So far, Russians have not been able to actually close off any of these pockets even though Ukrainians give the order to withdrawal very late. In my opinion, Ukraine has gotten very lucky that Russians are not as aggressive with closing these pockets as they could be, but this has caused greater Ukrainian casualties than they neede to take.

Once Rozdolne is taken, I would start a gradual retreat from the city, but I have a feeling that Ukraine will stay there for as long as possible. Velikaya Novoselka is a key logistical hub and would help consolidate Russian gains in this area, enabling further gains.

HighGround said:

So far, Russians have not been able to actually close off any of these pockets even though Ukrainians give the order to withdrawal very late. In my opinion, Ukraine has gotten very lucky that Russians are not as aggressive with closing these pockets as they could be, but this has caused greater Ukrainian casualties than they neede to take.

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The Mongols also did that all the time. You leave the enemy an escape path and then you use pinprick attacks to mow them down as they escape. This way you avoid time consuming siege battles.

HighGround said:

There are. This isn't the first time Russia has tried to attack Velikaya Novoselka. However, the issue is that the majority of the defenses are facing the South East. Russia has largely bypassed this "wall" after the capture of Ugledar. With Russian forces in control of Novoukrainka, Shakhtarske, and Zolotaya Niva, they've entered the "rear" of Velikaya Novoselka. Once Rozdolne is capture, Ukraine may decide to withdraw from the city, otherwise they will risk yet another cauldron.

So far, Russians have not been able to actually close off any of these pockets even though Ukrainians give the order to withdrawal very late. In my opinion, Ukraine has gotten very lucky that Russians are not as aggressive with closing these pockets as they could be, but this has caused greater Ukrainian casualties than they neede to take.

Once Rozdolne is taken, I would start a gradual retreat from the city, but I have a feeling that Ukraine will stay there for as long as possible. Velikaya Novoselka is a key logistical hub and would help consolidate Russian gains in this area, enabling further gains.

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well that was my point, ukrainian defence networks are oriented south, but the russians are coming from the east. it is the same with the fortifications west of kurakhove. it will get even worse if ukraine loses velika novoselka, because it allows russia to outflank its entire southern defence towards zaprorozhia.