The War in the Ukraine

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Russians breaking through defenses and now coming close to Velikaya Novoselovka. This was one of three hubs of the Ukrainian summer offensive in 2023.

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Seversk direction. Missile attack on the temporary deployment point of the AFU 53rd Brigade. Allegedly up to 20 personnel and four armored vehicles are in the affected area.

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FAB-1500 lands on Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region.

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TOS arrives on Ukrainian positions in Chasiv Yar.

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Rapidly shrinking pocket around Kurakhovo.

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Recent Iskander strikes on the Sumy region against AFU brigades. Videos for academic analysis.



YPR-765 found destroyed in South Donetsk.

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Pzh2000 gets taken out by Lancet in the Kursk region.

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Ukrainian field ammo depot inside a house gets taken out by drone in the Kursk region.

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Ukrainian UAV control position taken out by a Krasnopol in the Volchansk area.

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MSTA-B working on Ukrainian positions in the Kurakhovo sector.

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Destroyed Ukrainian T-72AV tank in Bogdanovka.

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Bradley survived multiple FPV drone hits. It is explained the lack of TOW missiles is because they were useless.

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A Suzuki Grand Vitara used by the Ukrainians after an FPV drone hit.

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M1A2 Abrams being evacuated by the Russians.

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RottenPanzer

Junior Member
Registered Member
With the utilisation of MRBMs already on the table.

Does the already decommissioned 'Pioneer' Ballistic Missiles are still in working order?

It would be extremely useful as a sort of mass saturation strikes against Ukraine and also to clean up the Russian stockpiles to make ways for its new MRBMs that was just used in Ukraine few days ago.
RSD-10_2009_G1.jpg
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Those missiles and launchers should have been destroyed after the INF Treaty was signed.
The INF Treaty was the cornerstone of security in Europe and between NATO and the Warsaw Pact. The blocks let by the US and the Soviets respectively. And then Trump reneged it. The treaty was already mortally wounded by Obama and his decision to put AEGIS Ashore with Mk 41 VLS in Poland and Romania though.
 

quim

Junior Member
Registered Member
And Russia has no reason to let its eyes deviate from its goal, which for the moment stops at annexation of the Ukraine, not all out war with NATO.

New weapons are to facilitate a faster end to the war, increase kill rate of pro-western Ukrainians, increase enemy forced conscription and demoralization of Ukrainian fence sitters.

And I don't doubt there will come even greater systems to Russia than Oreshnik if there is a need for it accordingly.

Russia is the world's no4 economy. It is not their lone job to fight and "force to learn their lesson" the no2 and no3 (if you count EU as 1 entity) at the same time. Their focus is and should remain on Ukraine.
The reason why Russia wants to annex territories and not let Ukraine join NATO is the threat that NATO causes against Russia.

Today, however, NATO is directly attacking Russia through Ukraine.

It doesn't make much sense to just attack the messenger and not the source of the threats.

Why attack just a useless factory in Dnipro and not the storm shadow or ATACMS factory that actually hurt Russians? Why not attack both in response?

NATO is escalating and Russia is not. Russia and Ukraine suffer casualties, but NATO does not. Therefore NATO will just continue on this path since there is no deterrence.

Without NATO, Ukraine would have already been defeated and today would have a pro-Russian government. However, the message NATO receives is that it can continue attacking Russia and only Russia and Ukraine will suffer casualties. The cost of the war is only some inflation and German industries closing. For the US this is not bad.
 
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Today, however, NATO is directly attacking Russia through Ukraine.

It doesn't make much sense to just attack the messenger and not the source of the threats.

Why attack just a useless factory in Dnipro and not the storm shadow or ATACMS factory that actually hurt Russians? Why not attack both in response?
What is that proverb? Kill the chicken to scare the monkey?

After Ukraine is neutralized Russia will come back to the initial proposal they put on the table to the US which they scoffed at. i.e. withdrawal of NATO back to its 1991 borders.

NATO is escalating and Russia is not. Russia and Ukraine suffer casualties, but NATO does not. Therefore NATO will just continue on this path since there is no deterrence.
I doubt there are that many Warsaw Pact era weapons left in Eastern Europe. And next the NATO equipment is being consumed. If NATO decides to continue to pursue this militarily, well, the main industrial base of NATO is a continent away in the US.

Without NATO, Ukraine would have already been defeated and today would have a pro-Russian government. However, the message NATO receives is that it can continue attacking Russia and only Russia and Ukraine will suffer casualties. The cost of the war is only some inflation and German industries closing. For the US this is not bad.
I think Russia will prevail in Ukraine eventually. And after that it will be the time for NATO to be taken on directly. But this might not be on Putin's watch.

Remember Putin just stated the opinion of the Russian Deep State. This started after the NATO intervention in Yugoslavia, the expansion of NATO to former Warsaw Pact countries and even former Soviet Union countries, the Russian Deep State asserted itself and Yeltsin was forced to accept Primakov, KGB, as Prime Minister. If anything the fact that Putin is there was a concession to the oligarchs. Primakov wanted to just reset the whole thing and put the government back in control of the economy.
 
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quim

Junior Member
Registered Member
What is that proverb? Kill the chicken to scare the monkey?

After Ukraine is neutralized Russia will come back to the initial proposal they put on the table to the US which they scoffed at. i.e. withdrawal of NATO back to its 1991 borders.


I doubt there are that many Warsaw Pact era weapons left in Eastern Europe. And next the NATO equipment is being consumed. If NATO decides to continue to pursue this militarily, well, the main industrial base of NATO is a continent away in the US.


I think Russia will prevail in Ukraine eventually. And after that it will be the time for NATO to be taken on directly. But this might not be on Putin's watch.

Remember Putin just stated the opinion of the Russian Deep State. This started after the NATO intervention in Yugoslavia, the expansion of NATO to former Warsaw Pact countries and even former Soviet Union countries, the Russian Deep State asserted itself and Yeltsin was forced to accept Primakov, KGB, as Prime Minister. If anything the fact that Putin is there was a concession to the oligarchs. Primakov wanted to just reset the whole thing and put the government back in control of the economy.
I hope you are right, because I see a trap for Russia in this game of escalation where Putin has so far only shown restraint in responding. Russia has all the options to escalate, as you said, but it has used nothing to demonstrate deterrence. Therefore, I fear that this will turn into uncontrolled loss of innocent lives at some point, something worse than the terrorist attack on Crocus City Hall in Moscow
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Russia is putting pieces in position, but it will not show its hand properly until after January.

Russia knows that the current round of mad dash escalation is the last gasps of the expired Biden regime. They are trying to limit that escalation, but there is no point even trying to strike any sort of grand deal since Trump can easily renege on it after he takes office.

As such, don’t expect any radical moves like direct strikes against NATO countries, since Biden has nothing to loose and everything to gain from invoking Article 5 in the dying days of his rule. But Russia may well choose to test Trump by accidentally-on-purpose hitting something, say an arms shipment convoy, just across the boarder in Poland soon after he takes office if there isn’t a reduction in NATO salami slicing in Ukraine.
 

Proton

Junior Member
Registered Member
Russia is putting pieces in position, but it will not show its hand properly until after January.

Russia knows that the current round of mad dash escalation is the last gasps of the expired Biden regime. They are trying to limit that escalation, but there is no point even trying to strike any sort of grand deal since Trump can easily renege on it after he takes office.

As such, don’t expect any radical moves like direct strikes against NATO countries, since Biden has nothing to loose and everything to gain from invoking Article 5 in the dying days of his rule. But Russia may well choose to test Trump by accidentally-on-purpose hitting something, say an arms shipment convoy, just across the boarder in Poland soon after he takes office if there isn’t a reduction in NATO salami slicing in Ukraine.
Russia might be quite happy to have all these factors for stalling negotiations; as Ukraine is pretty much expected to collapse in 2026, after 4 years of total war and negotiations should be much smoother once this becomes consensus or even reality.

I mean, aside from Russia facing polical or economic collapse there was never any prospect of Ukraine winning a long term conflict and their best time for negotiations was always in spring/summer of 2022. Once Putin gave order for partial mobilization the war was essentially decided - Russia hadn't collapsed (defeating much of the anti-Russian propaganda built over the last two decades) and had decided to double down.

Biden and his people will seek to nurture a stab-in-the-back mythology, were it's Trump/the Republicans betraying Ukraine and losing an already lost war.
 

sahureka

Junior Member
Registered Member
This response will certainly not stop the West from continuing to attack Russia directly.

Even Iran managed to symbolically attack Israel after being provoked, but Russia responds again only in some factory in Ukraine, which completely ignores Russian threats and hits. This means that the US and UK continue to be able to directly attack Russia without suffering any casualties and have no reason to stop.

I don't doubt they'll send Tomahawks next.

They will only stop when they are truly forced to learn their lesson. To expect rational negotiations with narcissists is just wishful thinking.
From the Kremlin website
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Statement of the President of the Russian Federation
Translated with DeepL.com (free version) therefore errors are possible
Putin: I would like to inform the personnel of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, the citizens of our country, our friends around the world and those who continue to harbor illusions about the possibility of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia about the events that are taking place today in the area where the special military operation is taking place, namely after the use of Western-made long-range weapons on our territory.
Continuing on the path of escalating the conflict in Ukraine provoked by the West, the United States and its NATO allies have previously announced that they are allowing the use of their long-range precision weapons systems on the territory of the Russian Federation. Experts are well aware, and the Russian side has repeatedly emphasized this, that it is impossible to use such weapons without the direct involvement of military specialists from the countries that produce them.

Il 19 novembre, sei missili tattici operativi ATACMS di fabbricazione statunitense e il 21 novembre, in un attacco missilistico combinato, i sistemi Storm Shadow di fabbricazione britannica e i sistemi HIMARS di fabbricazione statunitense hanno colpito strutture militari sul territorio della Federazione Russa, nelle regioni di Bryansk e Kursk. Da allora, come abbiamo ripetutamente sottolineato in precedenti occasioni, il conflitto regionale in Ucraina provocato dall'Occidente ha assunto elementi di carattere globale. I nostri sistemi di difesa aerea hanno respinto questi attacchi. Di conseguenza, gli obiettivi ovviamente fissati dal nemico non sono stati raggiunti.

The fire at the ammunition depot in the Bryansk region, caused by falling debris from ATACMS missiles, was extinguished and there were no casualties or serious damage. In the Kursk region, an attack was carried out on one of the command posts of our “North” group. As a result of the attack and anti-aircraft defense, unfortunately, there were casualties, deaths and injuries among the personnel of the external security units of the facility and maintenance personnel. The command and operational staff of the control center were not damaged and are normally managing the actions of our troops to destroy and expel enemy units from the Kursk region.

Ancora una volta, vorrei sottolineare in modo particolare che l'uso di tali armi da parte del nemico non è in grado di influenzare il corso delle operazioni di combattimento nella zona delle operazioni militari speciali. Le nostre truppe stanno avanzando con successo lungo l'intera linea di contatto. Tutti i compiti che ci siamo prefissati saranno completati.

In risposta all'uso di armi a lungo raggio americane e britanniche, il 21 novembre di quest'anno le Forze armate russe hanno lanciato un attacco combinato su una delle strutture del complesso industriale di difesa ucraino. In condizioni di combattimento, hanno anche testato uno degli ultimi sistemi missilistici russi a medio raggio, in questo caso un missile balistico con una configurazione ipersonica non nucleare. I nostri ingegneri missilistici lo hanno chiamato "Oreshnik". I test hanno avuto successo e l'obiettivo del lancio è stato raggiunto.
Nella città di Dnepropetrovsk in Ucraina, è stato colpito uno dei più grandi complessi industriali conosciuti dai tempi dell'Unione Sovietica, che produce ancora equipaggiamento missilistico e altre armi.
Stiamo sviluppando missili a medio e corto raggio in risposta ai piani degli Stati Uniti di produrre e distribuire missili a medio e corto raggio in Europa e nella regione Asia-Pacifico.
Riteniamo che gli Stati Uniti abbiano commesso un errore distruggendo unilateralmente il Trattato sull'eliminazione dei missili a medio e corto raggio nel 2019 con pretesti inverosimili. Oggi, gli Stati Uniti non solo producono tali equipaggiamenti, ma, come possiamo vedere, hanno elaborato i problemi di distribuzione dei loro sistemi missilistici avanzati in diverse regioni del mondo, tra cui l'Europa, durante le esercitazioni per le loro truppe. Inoltre, durante le esercitazioni, stanno conducendo un addestramento sul loro utilizzo.
I would like to remind you that Russia voluntarily and unilaterally pledged not to deploy intermediate- and short-range missiles until American weapons of this type appear in any region of the world.

I repeat: we are conducting live tests of the Oreshnik missile system in response to the aggressive actions of NATO countries against Russia. The issue of further deployment of medium- and short-range missiles will be decided by us depending on the actions of the United States and its satellites.
We will determine the targets of further tests of our latest missile systems based on the threats to the security of the Russian Federation. We consider ourselves entitled to use our weapons against the military facilities of those countries that allow the use of their weapons against our facilities, and in the event of an escalation of aggressive actions we will respond with the same decisive and mirror reaction. I recommend that the ruling elites of those countries that are hatching plans to use their military contingents against Russia also seriously consider this option.

Of course, when selecting targets for systems such as Oreshnik on the territory of Ukraine in case of need and in response, we will proactively invite civilians and also ask citizens of friendly states who are there to leave the danger zones. We will do it for humanitarian reasons - openly, publicly, without fear of opposition from the enemy, who also receives this information.
Why without fear? Because today there are no means to counter these weapons. Missiles attack targets at a speed of Mach 10, that is, 2.5-3 kilometers per second. The current air defense systems available in the world and the missile defense systems that the Americans are creating in Europe cannot intercept such missiles, it is impossible.

I emphasize once again that it is not Russia but the United States of America that has destroyed the international security system and, continuing to fight and cling to its hegemony, is pushing the whole world towards a global conflict.
We have always preferred and are now ready to resolve all disputes by peaceful means. But we are also ready for any development of events.
If someone still doubts this, it is useless: there will always be an answer.

MOD EDIT: colored text reserved for MOD use
 
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