A lot of people think the US is holding back on sending military weapons to Ukraine, or something, but the thing is the US has many defense commitments all over the globe. They cannot commit everything to Ukraine. If they do that conflicts might spark elsewhere and they would be caught with their pants down. As the situation in Israel showed. As is they already made South Korea send ammunition from its artillery stockpile and other things like that. There is a lot of mothballed equipment in stockpiles but it takes time to service it and make it operational again. So it is not like they can send it as is.
Forget about other hotspots flaring up, the collective west cannot even win the escalation game in just Ukraine.
While the non-US part of the NATO alliance has basically burned through all of its vast military inherence from the Cold War, Russia has not received any purely military supplies and assistance from its biggest de facto ally China.
And while there are many complex reasons as to why China has held off on supplying lethal aid to Russia thus far, I personally think one of the bigger reasons is because the Ukrainian war is profoundly beneficial for China, and Beijing has little desire to see it end too soon.
If China did full send lethal aid to Russia, it could basically end the war in a very short time frame. But for China, it’s far better for NATO to continue to haemorrhage money and equipment in Ukraine and basically make it useless as a support asset for America in its planned war against China.
Right now, NATO is effectively trapped in Ukraine, cannibalising its own inventory and sometimes frontline combat capabilities to keep propping up Ukraine. At the same time locking their industry into making legacy weapons for Ukraine just to keep them in the fight.
OTOH, China is busy investing in next gen weapons and munitions. The longer the Ukrainian war drags on, the more of a head start China will have in being ready for fighting tomorrow’s war rather than last century’s.
All of this means China has basically its entire escalation ladder left to deploy in Ukraine while the west has nearly reached the end of its own escalation ladder in terms of how much more support it can give Ukraine without getting directly involved in the fight themselves publicly and fully.
If Russia ever does actually start to struggle, China can tip the balance back in Russia’s favour incredibly easily and quickly with more material support. If NATO commits directly into the fight openly, then that’s when China will finally full send lethal support to Russia, as by then the West would have crossed the Rubicon and cannot easily wash their hands of Ukraine and limit the war to just Ukraine’s boarders.
It’s not worth China’s while to send lethal aid to Russia to win Ukraine for Russia quickly and easily, but it is worth China’s while to help Russia put America into the impossible position of choosing to let NATO be shattered and its European allies destroyed as potential useful military allies to use against China, or commit its full might to defending Europe and relinquishing its dream of fighting China in the Pacific.
