The War in the Ukraine

The Ukrainians have often told me that Ukraine is a measured coin in the geopolitical game. I never believed it, but here yu are, Ukraine will probably be handed over again.



The frog was boiled and boiled and finally boiled.

Obama-Biden made Putin quietly prepare for war without much repercussions from the treaty maker on Crimea.

Before the war Zelensky torpedoed the defenses and surrendered Chongar, South in the beginning. Syrsky on starvation rations from Biden withdrew troops from Donbass.

Now everything can be fixed and signed.



War Zone ✙ ➔ △



❗️❗️Потеря Ukraine's giving up its territories as a result of negotiations is no longer at the top of the agenda, the NYT quoted a senior Ukrainian official as saying

The territorial issue is extremely important, but it is still a second issue. The most important thing is security guarantees.

He added that security guarantees, not land, are the most difficult issue in any peace agreement.

Ukraine's loss of its territories as a result of the negotiations is no longer in the foreground," the NYT quoted a senior Ukrainian official.

Possibly, a third Challenger 2 might have been damaged. The driver's hatch is a notorious weak point of these tanks.

Ukrainian UAV control point and Starlink array gets destroyed by FPV drones and quadcopter bomb drops.


Ukrainian T-72M1 knocked out by FPV drones.


FABs arrive on Ukrainian camps and deployment points towards the Kurakhovo direction.


Russians launched a missile attack on Kyiv. Some military site or power energy facility gets taken out.


Captured Abrams being towed away by the Russians. This in the Kurakhovo direction.


Russian FPV drone attacked a Ukrainian Hind helicopter. Results are not clear.


German Leopard tank struck by a Lancet near Kurakhovo.


Russians pose with captured Leopard in the Kurakhovo sector.


FPV drone from the 155th Marine Brigade observes a Lancet hit a Stryker. Kursk region. Another FPV drone from the same unit hits a Challenger tank.

Seems the Russians have finally returned to Kupyansk after withdrawing at the end of 2022

sheogorath said:

Seems the Russians have finally returned to Kupyansk after withdrawing at the end of 2022

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1856813562595086787

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I thought at first it's another one of those DRG behind the enemy line type shenanigan but there may be more to it this time. Some pro-Russian sources are now claiming communication between Kharkov and Kupyansk is cut and there are some sort of withdraw by AFU from Kupyansk.

This better not be empty castle strategy, because if it is the bluff has been called.

Temstar said:

View attachment 139298
I thought at first it's another one of those DRG behind the enemy line type shenanigan but there may be more to it this time. Some pro-Russian sources are now claiming communication between Kharkov and Kupyansk is cut and there are some sort of withdraw by AFU from Kupyansk.

This better not be empty castle strategy, because if it is the bluff has been called.

Click to expand...

The whole Ukrainian front-line is an empty castle after the overcommitment to Kursk. The Russians don’t care about seizing territory and these assaults typically involve 50 to 100 soldiers in highly mobile columns scrambled from the rear, even utilizing motorcycles. The point is to seize empty positions and then dig in after inadequate rotations of depleted defenders, preparing strategic strongpoints for operational encirclement in the future and putting echeloned reserves under fire.

Once the Ukrainians are flushed out of their urban fortresses in the Donbas (Kramatorsk Axis, Pokrovsk) and into the wide open steppe, the war turns into a turkey shoot for Russian gunnery. Most likely the Ukrainians will have to withdraw across the Dnieper River if they want to form a coherent defensive line, but it’s far more likely that political pressure will force surrender to Russian terms in the next 1-2 years.

tabu said:

Syrsky on starvation rations from Biden withdrew troops from Donbass.

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A lot of people think the US is holding back on sending military weapons to Ukraine, or something, but the thing is the US has many defense commitments all over the globe. They cannot commit everything to Ukraine. If they do that conflicts might spark elsewhere and they would be caught with their pants down. As the situation in Israel showed. As is they already made South Korea send ammunition from its artillery stockpile and other things like that. There is a lot of mothballed equipment in stockpiles but it takes time to service it and make it operational again. So it is not like they can send it as is.

More than that, adding more hardware is a problem in and of itself. Who's going to man those weapons? Who's going to maintain them? The most skilled crews and technicians were evaporated over the last 3 years. Even assuming the US gives them, I don't know, 500 M1s, are the Ukrainians just going to send more press gangs into the streets of Kiev and stuff random "meat" inside the tanks and send them to the front? What about transportation? Kilometer-long trains filled with armor will probably get struck before they even cross the Dnieper. What about the logistics? Ammunition? Spare parts? Fuel?

On top of that, everyone in the world knows where the US's attention really is at this point. Anything they share with the Ukraine (or Israel, for that matter) is something they won't be able to use in the war they actually want to fight. As it ususally goes, you don't feed the hungry when your own children are starving.

Everyone mentions how the war in the Ukraine showed that Russia is not the second military power in the world, "3 day invasion" going sideways, getting bogged down, corrupt, filled with incompetent commanders. What does it say about the "west", which has proven to be divided along pretty much any conveivable line? While Russia mobilized its industry, Europe can't even bump its munitions production, let alone actual weapons. On the other side of the ocean, we have the US burried under a mountain of crippling debt, trying to put out fires they themselves started all over the world. January is going to come, and I expect we'll all see that the Emperor is naked.

Tootensky said:

More than that, adding more hardware is a problem in and of itself. Who's going to man those weapons? Who's going to maintain them? The most skilled crews and technicians were evaporated over the last 3 years. Even assuming the US gives them, I don't know, 500 M1s, are the Ukrainians just going to send more press gangs into the streets of Kiev and stuff random "meat" inside the tanks and send them to the front? What about transportation? Kilometer-long trains filled with armor will probably get struck before they even cross the Dnieper. What about the logistics? Ammunition? Spare parts? Fuel?

On top of that, everyone in the world knows where the US's attention really is at this point. Anything they share with the Ukraine (or Israel, for that matter) is something they won't be able to use in the war they actually want to fight. As it ususally goes, you don't feed the hungry when your own children are starving.

Everyone mentions how the war in the Ukraine showed that Russia is not the second military power in the world,

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Ofc they're not, nobody would dispute that they can be beyond US that has the largest peacetime military with far more 5th gens than Russia. Or China that is technology wise ahead in largely every single platform category.

Tootensky said:

"3 day invasion"

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This is propaganda designed for the borderline disabled or truly disabled, nothing more. Even the larger US military fighting a "military" worse armed than the PAP (Iraq) took longer than 3 days. If you have a normal level of mental function, how would you believe that a million man sized army dispersed across a big country can be gone in 3 days?

Tootensky said:

going sideways, getting bogged down, corrupt, filled with incompetent commanders. What does it say about the "west", which has proven to be divided along pretty much any conveivable line? While Russia mobilized its industry, Europe can't even bump its munitions production, let alone actual weapons. On the other side of the ocean, we have the US burried under a mountain of crippling debt, trying to put out fires they themselves started all over the world. January is going to come, and I expect we'll all see that the Emperor is naked.

Click to expand...