The War in the Ukraine

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
These Western sock puppets in Ukraine did not mind losing privileged access to their largest trading partner i.e. Russia by signing the association agreement with the EU. As long as they personally profited it did not matter to them that the country of Ukraine sank.

By signing the association agreement with the EU Ukraine agreed to stop their existing highly advantageous trade agreement with Russia. Because part of the way EU association agreements work is that you cannot have preferential trade with anyone else, you cannot enter into any beneficial trade treaty which the EU is not itself a part of.

Back in 2014 the Russian Army simply did not have the numbers to properly invade Ukraine. You could argue they did not have the numbers in 2022 either. So they just annexed Crimea.

In 2014 the Russian Mir card and SPFS did not exist. Russia was still dependent on imports of food from the West.

A full invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2014 was simply impossible.

At best what Russia could have done would be to support the existing Ukrainian government much like they did with Tokayev in Kazakhstan. But for that the Ukranian government had to ask for a Russian military intervention which they never did.

In the meantime Ukraine since 2014 trained an army several hundreds of thousands strong. It is basically the second largest army in Europe after the Russian one. So it is not like this is an easily winnable conflict for Russia.
Thats a cope. Russia could import food, they could use reserves. 2014 Ukraine dont have a chance.

But with hindsight maybe 2022 sanction strengthened Russia socially. The sanction alone was worth the wait.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
In 2014 Russia would have been importing helicopter engines from Ukraine, as well as R-77 AA missiles. Their economy was just not geared up for a prolonged conflict.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
The Russian flag is raised over the Ugledar city council building. The last blocks are being cleaned up.

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Russian flag planted on the west side of Ugledar.

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Center of Ugledar. Russian flag planted. All blocks are cleared.

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Russian flag is raised on the northern side of Ugledar.

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Iskander-M struck a building in Kherson where reportedly a meeting of the commanders of the AFU 37th Marine Brigade is taking place. Or it can be a PVD or ammunition depot.

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Lancet hits a fuel delivery train in Krasnopolye.

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Uh oh. BRAM overturned.

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Russians captured Vishnevoye in the Kharkhiv region.

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The Abandonment of Ukraine, writes The Atlantic. The American strategy is slowly bleeding the nation and it's people to death.

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I disagree. Change the adverb from slowly to quickly bleeding, and that's a more exact idea what's going on.

The article means that HIMARS, once Ukraine's most popular weapon, is now less than 10% effective due to Russian electronic warfare measures.

Tests of the Hortense drone with an RPG.

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Two FABs arrive in the city of Zaporozhye.

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A Russian Marine of the 40th Marine Brigade raises his shirt in lieu of a flag in the center of Ugledar.

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FABs arrive at Malaya Tokmachka, targeting provided by Smugylyanka's Squad.

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Geolocation of Russian flag positions in Ugledar.

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TK3600

Major
Registered Member
Some people have been claimimg Russia will peace out fast given the chance. All signs point to contrary. Russian is willing to give up land for better attrition. Willing to grind slowly to gain land at less casualty. None of these are useful for fast political leverage for negotiation. All aiming for complete destruction of enemy over long terms. Which is to say these are strategy of long haul. Perhaps demilitarize Ukraine was a lie, demilitarize NATO stockpile at favorable condition is the actual aim. If that is the case, war will go on for many years to go. It will not stop at US backing out. It will stop at entire western bloc giving up.

Another strategic goal is attrition of western economy at favorable rate vs Russian. By weakening western economy that insist on poor return financing of Ukrainian state, they will have less money available to attack Russia at more efficient means.

This could explain why Russia is adamant at making the war sustainable, even though intensify investment could yield faster tactical gains. Those gains were never the main goal. The economic attrition between two blocs is the actual battle. A poorer west enhance Russian security over long term. This is more valuable than another piece of Ukrainian turf.
 
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