So another mass drone attack deep in Russia. Didn't Putin say last week that this would provoke a Russian reaction in accordance with the new nuclear doctrine? Just another bluff that makes Putin appear even weaker to the world. It was better to remain silent than to just bluff and do nothing.
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
Putin does not bluff. And Russia has plenty of options in the escalation ladder before using nukes.
It is pretty clear the Russians changed the doctrine after the US started using Ukraine as a cloak while attacking Russia's strategic infrastructure. Including their nuclear submarine bases in Northern Russia, the Container and Voronezh radar networks, and the strategic bomber airbases.
It is pretty clear hitting the nuclear submarine bases and the OTH radar network does nothing to help Ukraine in its conventional conflict with Russia but is meant to weaken Russia's nuclear deterrent. So it is clearly US designed chicanery which could be meant as a prelude for a direct US attack on Russia.
The Ukrainians are also chancing on activating the Perimeter system with their activities. Which could lead us all to nuclear annihilation. But sure just ignore that.
"Russia does not do anything". But they invaded Ukraine.
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Putin has to walk a delicate tightrope. If he is too passive, it will invite more aggression. At the same time, he understands that as the conflict grinds on, Ukraine's position is becoming more precarious. So why overcommit when you can let time do its work?
This is why many Russian nationalists are deadset against any negotiation with Ukraine. They want to finish off the country and perhaps even annex most of it (certainly the eastern half) because they fear UA will only be rearmed and perhaps even given nuclear capabilities to ward off any future attack during a prolonged ceasefire. There's speculation that the Kursk misadventure was encouraged by the brits to damage the secret negotiations between UA and RU. It also tells you that Putin would like to end this war, which might explain his relative restraint.
Either way, I don't think Putin has played his hand brilliantly. He was outplayed politically leading up to the maidan coup in 2014, then he trusted the West during the Minsk accords even as Merkel admitted it was all a cover to buy time in order to arm Ukraine. Finally, the Russian military has been pretty mediocre during this war. Nearly three years have passed and the Donbass isn't even conquered yet. But the West should not delude themselves. If Putin is gone, his replacement will likely be much more aggressive and uncompromising. Nobody comes out of this looking good and the long-term prospects of Ukraine are incredibly grim.
This is why many Russian nationalists are deadset against any negotiation with Ukraine. They want to finish off the country and perhaps even annex most of it (certainly the eastern half) because they fear UA will only be rearmed and perhaps even given nuclear capabilities to ward off any future attack during a prolonged ceasefire. There's speculation that the Kursk misadventure was encouraged by the brits to damage the secret negotiations between UA and RU. It also tells you that Putin would like to end this war, which might explain his relative restraint.
Either way, I don't think Putin has played his hand brilliantly. He was outplayed politically leading up to the maidan coup in 2014, then he trusted the West during the Minsk accords even as Merkel admitted it was all a cover to buy time in order to arm Ukraine. Finally, the Russian military has been pretty mediocre during this war. Nearly three years have passed and the Donbass isn't even conquered yet. But the West should not delude themselves. If Putin is gone, his replacement will likely be much more aggressive and uncompromising. Nobody comes out of this looking good and the long-term prospects of Ukraine are incredibly grim.
These Western sock puppets in Ukraine did not mind losing privileged access to their largest trading partner i.e. Russia by signing the association agreement with the EU. As long as they personally profited it did not matter to them that the country of Ukraine sank.
By signing the association agreement with the EU Ukraine agreed to stop their existing highly advantageous trade agreement with Russia. Because part of the way EU association agreements work is that you cannot have preferential trade with anyone else, you cannot enter into any beneficial trade treaty which the EU is not itself a part of.
Back in 2014 the Russian Army simply did not have the numbers to properly invade Ukraine. You could argue they did not have the numbers in 2022 either. So they just annexed Crimea.
In 2014 the Russian Mir card and SPFS did not exist. Russia was still dependent on imports of food from the West.
A full invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2014 was simply impossible.
At best what Russia could have done would be to support the existing Ukrainian government much like they did with Tokayev in Kazakhstan. But for that the Ukranian government had to ask for a Russian military intervention which they never did.
In the meantime Ukraine since 2014 trained an army several hundreds of thousands strong. It is basically the second largest army in Europe after the Russian one. So it is not like this is an easily winnable conflict for Russia.