Some more information on the F-16 in Ukraine:
The clip with Zelensky showed the loadout for the first two F-16s. Everyone focuses on AIM-120
B and AIM-9
L or
M but miss the thing next to the Sidewinder that is looking right at you.
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It's
PIDS+ (Pylon Integrated Dispensing System) made by Danish company Terma, which produces e.g. elements of the self-defense system of F-35. All the upgraded F-16 MLU which includes Danish, Dutch and Norwegian aircraft were equipped with this system which includes also internal modifications. The MLU components were delivered 2002-2007 and upgrades were completed by 2010-2011. It's not the cutting edge but current tech as far as Russia is concerned.
The most significant change that the F-16s will bring to Ukrainian air operations is a modern self-defense system which
none of their post-Soviet aircraft had using simple early 80s RWR. It should improve the survival chances dramatically because the main problem for Ukrainian pilots was lack of awareness when their aircraft is being targeted by enemy missiles without direct illumination.
AIM-120B lacks range but it is an ARH missile which will allow F-16 to fire at the enemy
and evade. While SARH combat is like horsemen charging at each other with lances ARH combat is more like gunslingers shooting at each other from behind barrels in the main street.
ARH allows wasting shots to force the enemy to disengage because fuel is scarce and a wasted sortie is a minor tactical win. AIM-120B lacks range to threaten Su-35 or MiG-31 but it evens the field for other aircraft, especially Su-34 and older.
This will force VKS to fly constant CAP for protection of other aircraft which was a problem in late 2022.
MLU has retained the AN/APG-66 which is a small aperture basic multimode radar and while significantly better than the radars of MiG-29 (N019) and even Su-27P (N001) lacks power and range and processing capabilities.
The biggest test will be adoption of NATO air tactics, especially air-based command and control. Ukraine uses Soviet ground-based command and control system. F-16s come with their own operating manuals so it stands to reason that pilots would be trained to co-operate with AWACS indications from across the border.
This interview with Justin Bronk is useful for getting the basic constraints and problems because he focuses on things that most people on SDF rarely think about - the fundamentals:
Note that everything that he says about ranges being affected by altitude and speed of each fighter applies to Russian fighters as well. Maximum ranges are achieved by fighters at maximum altitudes vs targets at low altitudes. Without R-37 the situation isn't particularly comfortable for VKS so Russia will continue to rely on SAMs for suppression and
unlike fighters SAMs can be targeted by counter-fire from other aircraft and rocket artillery. F-16s can serve as decoys for HARM and HIMARS.
So while these F-16s won't change much in offensive capabilities - for that numbers above 100 are necessary - they are a significant complication
provided that the pilots and supporting crews have been properly trained to utilise proper tactics. Until now Ukraine simply didn't have the necessary aircraft because old Soviet planes lacked everything that was necessary to do that. F-16 MLUs have it.
However this is theory. In practice Ukraine has a rather awful track record in implementation of NATO solutions. We shall if two years of training changed anything.
Two more maps from march of 2023 (from a different forum - just as full of idiots as SDF but in the opposite political direction). They demonstrate notional ranges of Su-24 and F-16 for ground attack missions with S-400 and Su-35S present. Su-24 flying lo-lo-lo has combat range of 600km. F-16 flying hi-lo-hi with tanks has 500-550km. Maps also show existing bases, although F-16s can be used from prepared roadstrips. Ukrainian airbases apart from a few lack reinforced hangars. This will reduce the effective range.
Large images (3000x2000px):
Su-24
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F-16
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In March 2023 Ukrainian bad joke of an offensive hasn't begun so talk about Crimea as a direction was viable. It still is, but the priority will be in defending the western and south-western parts of the country from aerial attacks to protect whatever is left of infrastructure.
F-16 will also serve as means to force Russia to expend jets and munitions on attacking the bases. If they don't do it then the number of F-16s and confidence of pilots will grow over time which is bad. But to destroy F-16s decisively they must launch large attacks which will expose aircraft to SAMs.
As Bronk says Pilots are the primary constraint. There were many more available F-16s than there were pilots capable of flying them in combat. The same applies to Russia. Lose a few too many aircraft over Ukrainian-controlled territory and VKS will put its tail between its legs and run like it did in 2022. Russia has planes but it lacks pilots capable and willing to fly them into combat. Many of Ukraine's GBAD teeth have fallen out since then but they still can bite if someone is too careless.
So perhaps the air war will finally become more interesting. Or perhaps not.
I haven't been paying attention to this conflict for almost a year, mostly keeping tabs on material trends. Literally: I post things that I want to keep on record and I made only fifteen posts in this thread since August 4 of 2023 which is little over one post per month and none of them was about current events.
Anyway... it's Monday already? Damn...
